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January 12,1895
Record and Guide.
37
^ _ ESTABLI5HED-^MRRPH21V>1B68.
DevGieD to f{ol Estate .BuiLDiffe %ci<itectur,e .KousEtfou) DzflOf^jTiorf,
Bi/siiIess aiJd Themes ofG^iJer^I ll/rtRfii.
PRICE, PER YEAR IN ADVANCE, SIX DOLLARS.
Published every Saturday.
Tblefhoni;,......Cortlandt 1370
Communleations should be addressed to
C. W. SWEET, 14-16 Vesey Street.
J. I. LINDSEY. Business Manager.
Brooklyn Office, 276-282 Washington Street,
Off. Post Office.
"Entered at the Post-office al New York, If. T., as second-class matter."
Vol. LV.
JANUARY 12, 1895.
No. 1,400
Fm- additional BrooJclyn. matter, see Brooklyn Department immediately
folloioing New Jersey records [page 65(.
Samuel Benner's Forecast for 1895.
Wliatare the "Signs of the Times?" The answer to this
ctueation is contained in one word:
PRICES.
Wheat 54 cents a bnsliel at Chicago.
Cotton 5^2 cents a pouud'at Cincinnati.
Pig iron $10 a ton at Pittsburgh,
Wheat, cotton and iron are the leading factors in general
business. Collectively they are the barometer of trade. Low
prices for these products indicate depression and stagnation in
business. Present prices for wheat and cotton means impov¬
erishment for the farmers and cotton planters. Ten-dollar pig
iron is bankruptcy for the furnace man.
Tlie Business Outloolc for 1895.
There ie no promise or sign of better times for the coming year.
Wemaylookin vain for any permanent improvement in gene¬
ral business.
The increase last year of one hundred million of dollars in the
bonded debt of this government, with indication of farther in¬
crease, does not signify that this is or will he a prosperous coun¬
try, and that the people wiU be contented keeping out of debt
and making money.
Our immense war debt has been' and is now a national misfor¬
tune. It was one of the instrumentalities which instigated the
money power of the world to establish the single gold standard
in this country—ever since 1873, when this crime was com¬
mitted. Values in lands, products and commodities have been
shrinking in consequence of this act, and no one can fathom or
predict the depths to which prices will fall.
Many newspapers joined in the chorus after the adoption of a
lower tariff last August that things were now settled—the tide
had turned, business was improving. Yet, notwithstanding all
newspaper wisdom, there was a silent and constantly operating
cause for depression (hat overrides all things; prices did not
advance, but continued on the downward grade; pig iron, lately
$9.50 a ton at Pittsburgh, is the wonder of the age.
The outcome of the late election is not a factor in the business
situation.
It did not give us more gold.
It did not give us more corn.
It did not give tts a protective tariff.
It did not stop the outflow of gold.
It did not increase the revenue.
It did not remonctize silver.
It did not relieve us from the blighting, withering curse of
the single gold standard.
Although a wonderful success for the Republican party, it
was a dismal failm-e in improving business and iu establishing
higher prices.
Ourrency reform is now the sensation in Congress. This
reform is not at this time imperatively needed.
Our currency is safe and sound—no noteholder haa ever lost
a penny by a broken National bank—every dollar of United
States currency is as good as gold.
In my forecast for 1892 attention was directed to the restric¬
tion of the n.ational banking system by our ciu'rency laws, and
that there was a lack of sufficient expansion of the cuiTency to
produce great speculation in 1889, 1890 and 1891.
However, any plan of reform to make the currency more elastic
will he only to jtiggle with the currency, and will not now, in
this crisis of the Government, stop the outflow of gold from the
treasury.
What is absolutely required is abundant revenue to enable
the Government to pay its daily expenses and to reform silver,
so tbat the vast hoard in the treasury can be utilized in paying
gold gamblers who present currency for redemption.
These results can only be obtained by the free coinage of silver
first and a thoroughly protective tariff to follow, which is the
best for revenue and best for the people.
If the i>roposed ciu'reney reform is for the purpose of creating
a boom in business for 1895 and 1896, it will be a flat failure.
Before the War of Rebellion, when we had the specie basis
banking system, whenever the tariff was reduced prices declined
aud hard times followed. The banks then had to resort to every
ingenuity and cunning device to get their notes in circulation in
such a way so as to prevent their sudden return for redemption
in hard money. They then could not inflate the currency and
start a boom in business by their money alone.
It was only after a protective policy had been adopted and
business was improving tbat specie-paying banks flourished.
Then they could issue any quantity of their currency, which
stimulated business and made high prices.
Now we have a low tariff, distressed business and declining
prices. Any system of State banks that would issue currency
based on gold or anything else, could not get large quantities of
their notes out in the channels of trade, and therefore the at¬
tempt would he a faihire to boom business.
If more money is required at this time to create better busi¬
ness, why is there now a surplus over legal requirements of
thirty-five million dollars idle money in the banks?
Should Congress abandon the plan for an elastic currency and
enact a law to issue bonds to withdraw the gi'eenbacks and
treasury notes from circulation at once, the result would be a
contraction of the currency disastrous to all business; business
men iu that event should prepare for one of the most serious de¬
pressions in modern times.
There is anxious inquiry as to the proper time to invest money.
It is one of the facts of trade that when the depressions which
follow commercial panics reach their lowest limit they afford
tbe best opportunity for. safe and profitable investment.
It is there any evidence anywhere that we aie at the lowest in
this depression ?
Is there any property which is not depreciating in value
except gold 1 I au swer—none.
Are prices so low that they cannot go lower ? Does the lower
tarifi' Republican success in the election and failure in the corn
crop indicate a turn in the tide of depression for the year
1895 â– ? I answer—no.
There is not in view a single prospective happening that
would advance prices, except very short crops of grain and cot¬
ton in 1895 ; however, in that event, railroads and general trade
would be adversely affected.
There cannot be prosperity in the future without advancing
prices in general all along the line of production and manufac-
tuxe.
An average crop of grain in this country this year with fair
crops abroad, prices at Chicago for wheat after next harvest
will go down to 40 cents a bushel; prices for corn nest fall will
decline to 25 cents a bushel; fat hogs, $3 a hundred pound
gross nest packing season.
Prices for wool, cotton, iron, cattle and horses will be on the
down grade during the present year; common sheep, after the
wool is taken off nest spring, will sell for what the pelt will
then bring in the markets—25 cents.
To the ansious inquirer the year 1895 will not be the proper
time to make investments in property or to engage extensively
in business enterprise.
We have not yet seen or felt the depths of the depressive
effects of the gold basis with low tariff iu connection with our
growing national debt.
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