AugUBt S7, 1892





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VoL, L.





AUGUST 37,  1893.





No. 1,S76





THE movements of tbe stoclĩ market for tbe laat week bave
borne out the theory that a reaction from  the bullishness of
che laat month was in order.    Tbere is a stubbornness on the part
of security holders which makes it sometimes appear aa if that
theory had no foundation, and that a new advance was every
moment just about to begĩn.    But a comparison of present prices
wíth those of a week ago shows that considerable realizing has
already been effected, and events that '■ave tranapired recenily and
their influence on stock prices  show  that more will  tollow,    In
particular it has been noted that the failure of the BufEalo switch-
men's strike did not bring any advance in the prices of railroad
BGCorities, but, on the contrary, was followed by declines,    This is
naturally taken as [a sure  evidence. that the men  who  manipu-
lated the recent advance seized that as a good opportunity for
taking profits, leaving the market to  find itti support from euch
new buying as the failure of the strike produced,     The support
which ĩteading  received to  counteract the  effect of Chancellor
McGiII's decision wiU be oniy temporary, and the fact that the coal
combination has been defeated in the first move of the Stute anthor-
ities against it will not help the Coalers, and especially will not help
Reading, which bas also to contend against the public disappoint-
ment at the results from operating that property under the new
arrangement.    The decision in the Jersey cotu:ts can hai"dly have
taken insiders by surprise ; they would, it is to be presumed, have
been more surprised if the Courthad aecepted their contention that
the leasing of,the Lehigh Valley and Jersey Central was in no respect
whatever a combination or part of a combÍDation toputup theprice
of anthracite coal, especially as while  the case was being argued
and considered at least three advances in pricea had been made as
a direct result of the deal, and the,decision was announced on the
day that the fourth advance was deeided upon. It is not possible to
say how the higher Courts wîll regard Chancellor McGĩH's opinion,
but it seems almost impossible to thinĸ tbat an arrangement which
controls the largest part of acommodity limited in amouot and so
controlait as to give itthepowerto dictate rates to tfie owners ol' the
smaller part canbe anywhere regacded asanything else than acom-
bination.    Beingacombinationitis certainlynotpiu'poseless; what
its purpose ĩs a very limited acquaintance with human nature enables
any one to judge.    Whether it is possible to achieve what the  coal
companies want without some such arrangement aa that under dis-
cussion, in tbe event of  tlie final decision being agaíust it, remains
to be seen,    It has not hitherto been possible to maintain high rates
in the anthracite tradiĩ without a consolidation of interests, nor has
it been necessary for the larger part of the coal carrying companies
to do so.    In fact, of the great  carriers Reading has been the only
one that could not pay divĩdends, although the largest producer of
anthracite.    If it loses  its  control  of Lehigh Valiey and  Jersey
Central,   the   other   companies   are   not   likely   to   go   out   of
their   way   to   make   Reading   a   dividend    payer,   and   some
are   known   to   be   desirous   of   preventing   it.     StiII,   if   the
Reading,  Lehigh Valley and Jersey Central stocks are held in the
interest of this combination, as it is generally believed theyareheld,
they can be held still  so as  to  bring about  the same results as
the roads combined would have  brought about.     For instEnce,
three individuals may be prevented from carrying on their  busi-
nesses together in one certain manner, but it would be difficult to
prevent those three individuals altogether from conducting tbeir
busin6sse& for their mutuiLl interest.    This is the case of the Eead-
ĩng leaaes in a nutshell,    Meautime the buyers of Reading liave in
any case been a little too sanguine of results, and chis, together
with the Jmown depressing influence of action in  the courta, will
aSect the stoek.





firmer, owing to the announcement that negotiationa are on foot in
regard to a Russo-German commercial treaty. Official statements
are so far wanting ; but it is known that the Russian Government
have appointed their commisaioners, The consummation of a
treaty will probably be a task of the greatest difficulty, and the
negotiations will be conducted with the greatest discretion and
caution, The difficulties of the enterprise aredue to the immensity
of the possible advantages of such a treaty to both countries, The
idea has been broached in various quarters that the Bussian Gov-
ernnient may have entered on negotiations with Germany with tba
intention of breaking them off at a convenieut moment in order to
create a very strong impression on France ; but thia is declared to
be false hy well-informed observers. Russia wants a marketfor her
grain produce, and she sees Austrian-Hungarian and even Ameri-
can grain is imported by Germany at lower duties of entry than
her own produce. Furthermore, Russian loana are practically
excluded from the Berlin market, ever aince the Imperial Bank waa
compelled to stop making advances on them. It would be a great
advantage to Russia If she could persuade Germany to change her
policy in that respect. What Germany expects cbiefly ĩs a reduc-
tion in the Russian import duties oa iron, coal aodtextiles. If that
can be obtained, agreat improvement in trade will be witneased,
for the closing of the Eussian market has had a great deal to do
with the present stagnation. Next to the financial arguments,
Russia's chief object in adopting prohibition was the wish to
develop her own industriea, In 1882 the protectionist system waa
adopted, and it waa brought to its clímax in l89i, when payment
of duties in gold was enacted. In prosperous times Russia would
probnbly have adhered to her intentions, but after the famine and
all her financial calamities, she may feel compelled to gĩve in.
Besides, ahe does not appear to have succeeded in her plan to mtike
hetselt independent of the supply of foreign machinery. For, in
spite of the high dutiea, the imports of machines were about as
lai-ge in 1889 as ihey were in 1883, nor did the production of forged
ifon make any considerable progress. Apart from the posaible
political effects, the negotiations bave some considerable interest to
this country, because it threatens to take away whatever advan-
tage we may have ohtained from the recent reduction in grain
duties obtained by the present adminiatration from the Germau
Government.





rriAMMANY wiU probably be able to elect its candidate for
-1- Mayor next fall without more than the shadow of ao oppo«-
tion. For the first time in many years it looks as if the local
Democratic party would not be divîded, So far aa can be aeen now
only one Democratic candidate will be placed tn nomination, and
under sucb circumstancea a nsmination would be tantamount to
election. The Republicans may howl against the wickedness of
Tammany as much as they please, but their candidate in a Presi-
dential year, even if nominated for the purpose of drawing inde-
pendenfc votes, wiU be overwhelmed by a majority very nearly as
large as the one which Cleveland will have over Harrison in thia
city, The strict divisíon of party lines can result only in ao equally
strict dÍYÍsion of the party vote. ĩt will be simply impossible to
bring municipal issuea into the cauvaas. The prominent aup-
portera of Mr. Cleveland, who are known to be hostile to Tam-
many, wiU be obliged for the sake of the national ticket
to subdue their wrath and walk amîcably with politiciana
whom they bave been deoouncing as public enemiea, Professed
Mugwumps can, of course, aupport the Republican candidate for
Mayor without doing any harm to Mr. Clevelaod, or probably to
Tammany either; but no man who calla himself Demourat will b«
able publicly to bolt tha Democratic local nominee, coneequently
the time will not be favorable to warfare againet Tammany. Tha
friends of the municipal reform movement will probably appreciats
fully the weakness of their cause under the circumstancea, and the
desirability of waiting two years for a better opportunity to renew
their campaign. During those two years Tammany wiU be in
complete possession, not only of the New York City government,
but probably of the State government also, for under the new
apportiontLent tlie Democrats can certainjy carry the Assembly.
They wiU be able to pass what legialation they choose; and they ,
will be able to admioister those laws very much as they please. If
their course last winter is any test, they will not faii to use these
opportunities to their own immediate advantage and to tlieir
ultimate disadvantage. They wiU probably give us eome sort of a
law enlarging the sphere of local government; they will probably
be very lavish in public improvements, and we shall doubtleaa hear
talk of a great many jobs. At all events it is the record which
they make duriog these two yeara which will forge the weapons of
warfare for 1894. Until that lime New York City is Tammany'a
political and financial preaerve. The Wigwam's enemies can but
stand aside and wait.





AVARIATION in the usual news of duUueBs and depression in
tbe European markets comea from Berlin.    Businesa ia said
to be somewhat more animated in that centre, and prices rather     matea of the "coac of living," eome trying to ehow that the necea-





"T must be that in "politics"  the reasoning faculty  playa no
-   part,    The newspapera are hammering away juat now at eati-