February 1. 1896
Record and Guide.
171
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Vol. LVII.
FEBRUARY 1, 1896
No. 1,4.55
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WHEN railroad managers appear to be sincere in their agree-
lueuts to tli\'ide tonnage, it may be taken that the out¬
look for business is good. It is for this reason, more than be¬
cause of its direct eft'ect on tho coal stocks, that the arrangement
just made by the anthracite carriers to restrict production and
limit the percentage of the totals to be carried by each is
important. As far as the stocks are concerned, it is usual to se*
realizations by insiders upon such developments as this, and the
indications are not wanting that they are present new. The
public, however, are always more enthusiastic than the men who
control the anthracite trade and carry prices much higher than is
warranted by val ues, but their zeal has to be paid for later on. But
this agreement, and the way in which the trunk line managers
have maintained rates for some time past, are the best evidences
of the healthy condition of business throughout the East, at any
rate, if not over the whole country. As a matter of fact, the
only drawback to progress is the bad condition of the
currency, with the consequent curtailment of foreign capital.
We shall soon seo what sort of a success the new gold loan is
to be. Whether it will be the last loan the Government has to
make iu order to protect the gold reserve is very doubtful, but
it will be the last popular loan made to meet such an emergency
as has now to be met. There is very little doubt that banking
interests will have to take the most of this ottering. It is really
fortunate that this is the case, as the more they take the better,
because they cau, and no doubt -nill, supply the gold for their
purchases without drawing upon the Treasury for it. A really
successful popular loan, that is a loan taken wholly by the
public, would leave the Treasury worse oft, so far as its gold
reserve was concerned, than if it had never been made. But
this operation will teach the Treasury that if it wants an ai-tlcle
it had better go to those who are able to supply it, if a body
that has both ears open to popular clamor can be taught
anything.
FOREIGN tinancial journals are congratulating their readers
on the improved political outlook, while admitting that
the storm clouds are only broken, not dispersed. It is felt that
the German Kaiser will uot rest content with the snubbing he
got for his gratuitous interference in the South African trouble,
and a careful watch will be kept upon BerUn. All sides seem
agreed that the Venezuelan difficulty will be settled without the
friction of arms, though it may, from time to time, produce lit¬
tle rifaes of feeling uutil finally disposed of. The way in which
the congressional " blutt'" on Armenia was " called " by the Brit¬
ish Government, speaking through Mr. Chamberlain, shows that
he and his fellow ministers are on the alert, and are able to carry
themselves through the present trying times with ability and
probable success. Taking the cue from the recent speeches of
Mr. Balfour and Mr. Chamberlain, business men h,avo put on
more cheerful faces, and the markets are showing more activity
than they have done for some weeks. Still, it will not probably
be forgotten that diplomatic utterances have not proved the
most 8at!.sf actory guiiles to follow. It is less than three months ago
since Lord Salisbury delivered himself of the Guildhall speech,
- assuring the w irld of the unanimity of the powers on the policy
to be observed toward Turkey. In the brief time since that de¬
livery, while cuuimeicial conditions were wholly satisfactory,
we have had several minor panics, due entirely to political
events, and the only unanimity of the powers is in their jealousy
of one another. While taking advantage of the lull in political
excitement, people are not likely to forget that neither the
Armenian nor Venezuelan question is settled yet, and until both
are there is no kno-vring •what danger* may arise bet-ween sleep -
ing and waking.
â–
THE widespread eagerness of the search for gold, due in part
to the successful discoveries in South Africa and Colorado,
and in part to the diversion of mining activity from silver on the
collapse in the price of that article in 1893, has produced results
which outdo the best that was ever done during the Australian
and Californian excitement in the '508. It should be said also
that the discovery of the cyanide process, by which ores that
were previously valueless can be made to pay, has had a good
deal to do in increasing the production. Careful estimates place
the value of the world's output of 1895 at about $200,000,000,
or 50 per cent more than the average forthe years 1856 to
I860, and double the average for the period 1873 to 1883. Of
last year's output the United States contributes most, and itthero-
by recovers its position as the largest producer, which it lost in
1894, having then stood third, with South Africa, and Australia
ahead of it. The approximated results for the year in the prin¬
cipal gold producing countries are: United Slates, $46,000,000;
South Africa, $45,500,000; Australia, $33,500,000, and Russia,
$30,500,000, leaving $44,500,000 produced by all other coun¬
tries. The leading position of the United States is due rather to
accident than its capacity to turn out the precious metal, be¬
cause there is very little doubt that but for the disturbed politi¬
cal condition of South Africa its output would have been much
larger. As tt is, it comes very close to our total, and its Decem¬
ber return was less than in any of the preceding nine months.
This renewed capacity of the earth to give up gold is not sup¬
posed to have reached its maximum, and we may look for very
large results for some years to come. This augmentation of the
supply of the metal upon which all credit is based cannot fail to
have, before very long, a favorable effect on values, except where
its influence is neutralized by unnatural conditions, such as our
currency madness for instance. It is a remarkable fact, and one
that ought not to escape attention, that in the country where the
production of gold is the greatest there is also the most disturb¬
ance in commerce and finance. This can only be due to the
fact that, instead of being allowedlto do its work freely and
naturally, our gold is arbitrarily held back to meet emergencies
that would not arise if our currency was equal to modern
requirements,
IMPERTINENT as itmayseem, the cool way in which the Joint
Committee on Consolidation, after devoting several days to
Brooklyn, returned to Albany without hearing New Vork city,
was not altogether undeserved by the subject of its impudence.
The task of making this city stand up for its own rights is
scarcely less than Sisyphine. It pays 46 per cent of the whole
State tax, yet not a word is heard from it in protest, while the
rural members of the Legislature are carrying what are known
as "grab" bills, involving many millions of dollars, in the in¬
terest of their own constituents solely, and in spite of the direct
warning given by Governor Morton against such a course. So it
has been with other things, including consolidation, and it is
only through the spirited protest of a few public-spirited citizens
that Mr. Lexow's committee will have to listen to the sober sec¬
ond thought of New York city on this subject. But for this the
protest of the anti-consolidationists would, probably, have been
brushed aside, and the Albany scheme of using consolidation to
put a monumental patronage into the hands of a political clique
would have been put through. With as strong an opposition
disclosed in this city as was made apparent in Brooklyn, the
schemers may hesitate to carry out their plan, and if they do not
there is still the hope that the Governor will refuse to assent to
a measm-e involving such consequences in the face of the newly
developed public opinion. For there is no doubt whatever that
if the public has not changed its mind as to the advisability of con¬
solidation since the vote of November, '91, it does most earnestly
desire, before being irretrievably committed, to have oppor¬
tunity to consider the new arguments that have been put before
it on the unwisdom of the union. There is very little doubt that
in the present condition of the public mind, if the question were
now submitted to the popular suttrage, a proper caution would
reverse the vote pre-yiously obtained.
WORLD'S fairs seem to have gone out of fahsion. When
Paris set on foot its plan to compete with Berlin in
celebratiug the opening of the Twentieth century with such a
gathering, Berlin promptly withdrew from the race, rightly con¬
cluding that no planet ot dimensions as restricted as ours could
stand two such institutions at the same time. Now Paris shows
an inclination to get out of the engagement she made. Owing to
a change in the plans, the city claims that she is no longer bound
by her promise to contribute 20,000,000 fr. to the preliminary
credits for outlay, and it is said the public of the capital displays
remarkable inditterence to the whole project, while the provin¬
cial towns are directly opposed to it. These great shows have