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January 12, 1901.
RECORD AND GTTIDE.
Cta^TiD 10 RfAL Estate.BuiLDif/c ApcrirrEeruR.E.HoiiSEHoiuDESOR^liDlt
BusitiEss Alto Themes of CeKer^L Ikteh.£si.
PRICE PER YEAR IN ADVANCE SIX SOLEARS.
PuliUshed every Saturday.
TELEPHONE, CORTLANDT 1370.
Commua 1 cations should be addressed to
C. W. SWEET, 14-16 Vesey Street.
/. T. LINDSEY, Business Manaser.
•Entered at the Poet-Offlie at Nrw York, N. 7., aa eccoTid-class matter.''
JANUARY 12, lOOl.
THAT the stock market is in Eor a heavy reactionary move¬
ment is probable from the fact that great leading inter¬
ests havecome. to the conclusion that it is time to contradictsome
of the most absurd of the reports made quite gratuitously on
their account. It is a great pity they waited as long as they did.
Irregularity of movement has characterized the market all the
"week, and the list of the stocks and bonds that have either come
to a standstill or taken the back track has daily grown longer.
European interest in the bull movement, which did not reveal
itself until that movement was well under way. was such a
cautious one that it never went beyond the mark set by the
New York example, and now shows signs of reverting to the
other side and of being accompanied by further realizations of
long holdings, for which we are still offering good opportuni¬
ties. The. Industrials, which have taken a surprisingly small
part in the advance, are the flrst to display weakness on the turn
of speculative septiment. The cause of this will probably be
found in the competition that has arisen as a result of the ex¬
tremely profitable industrial years, 1898-9, and in the probable
conviction in the minds of the managers of the industrial com¬
binations, that it will not be possible to get back to the high"
prices out of which they made their enormous profits in those
years. So far as general business is concerned, this would be
a good thing if true, as it most probably Is, because prices of
materials were undoubtedly the primary cause of the dulness
which last year saw, and if there is assurance of fairly moderate
figures for a future of reasonable length, the fact will create
confidence and stimulate activity.
T F the European industrial and commercial outlook is dimmed,
^ that of accumulated capital Is more satisfactory on the
theory that every dog should have his day as well that by a
rule of Providence that he is sure to get it. A gejieral and rapid
decline in the prices of commodities in the past .two months pro¬
claim that the point of over-production was reached some, time
ago. The London Economist's figures for 1900 are eloquent of
this. The highest point in two years was reached last Septem¬
ber, but ithe changes in the last two months of the year brought,
not only the average down beiow the figure for the opening of
the year, but put most of the list in that position. That is to
say, the decline in the average is not explained by large breaks
in a few articles, but by a tendency common to all but a few.
At the same time the year was one in which the demands on the
money market were abnormally heavy, the total amount, $827,-
000,000, exceeding that of any year for which figures exist. The
Government alone took $240,000,000, without counting tem¬
porary accommodations represented by Treasury bills; and not¬
withstanding the fact that the borrowings make the record, very
little was loaned outside of the Empire, and comparatively little
in the Colonies, so that the home demands were very heavy in¬
deed. The terms at which loans were made emphasize the
strength of this demand; the best of municipal offerings, includ¬
ing those of the London County Council, had to be put out at well
over three per cent, in order to make them attractive. The
circumstances of the times are .distinctly good for investors,
because although the shrinkage in industrial operations, which
must follow reduced prices, will lessen the demands for capital
from that source and evejitually release a good deal, the govern¬
ment requirements are still large and pressing. The Bank of
England retains its high discount rate and is industriously seek¬
ing to control the market, doubtless in order to be in a position
to meet the requirements of tbe British Treasury, and the in¬
tention of the German Government to appeal to the market for
large accommodations, $150,000,000, is as good as announced.
This last mentioned fact is confirmed by the movement of Im¬
perial 3s, which have lost two points in a few days, and are. now
selling at about 3,-5 per cent, and 7 points below the issue price
of 92. The terms of the new loans must be generous to secure,
adeptance, and there is no probability of an early return
to the low rates that were the despair of capitalists who live
upon interest they received a few years ago. What will result
from another general collapse of industrial and commercial ac¬
tivity, such as was seen ten years ago, it is not necessary to
consider now. It suffices for the time being that the uses of
capital are so extended that fair rates of remuneration may be
confidently demanded and as confidently expected for some years
T!^ OTH sides, employing and employed, have come from the
^—^ recent arbitration and conciliation conference at Chi¬
cago convinced that differences and difliculties between them
can be best overcome by voluntary, spontaneous effort, and
that compulsory measures are more likely to be mischievous
than helpful. One of the representatives of labor, Martin Fox,
President of tbe Iron Molders' Union of North America, speak¬
ing of the conference, said: "It has demonstrated beyond per-
adventure that compulsory arbitration is viewed with disfavor
and is deemed impractical by both the managing and the work¬
ing forces of industry in this country. It has further demon¬
strated that there is a general trend towards conciliatory meas¬
ures in the adjustment of disputes that arise between the work¬
men and the employer at intervals in every branch of industry,
and a disposition on both sides to avoid irritating cessation of
employment and strikes."
~T" HE agreement about Bronx rapid transit, which property
^ owners in that vicinity have reached, manifestly depends
upon one far-reaching and important extension of the rapid
transit system as already planned. It depends, that is, upon an
independent tunnel on the East Side from Forty-second street
across the Harlem River. It is becoming more and more evi¬
dent that such a tunnel would be not merely a desirable addi¬
tion to the system under construction, but an absolute necessity
to tbe development of the Bronx and to the convenience of
residents on the Bast Side. The Bronx needs rapid transit, both
on Jerome and on Westchester avenues, and the line on West¬
chester avenue must have a southerly connection better than
could possibly be provided by any of the existing elevated lines.
Furthermore, people living between Park and Fifth avenues,
north of Fifty-ninth street, are also badly in want of some
means of transit to the City Hall more convenient than the Third
avenue elevated road, and quicker than the surface lines. These
necessities have, no doubt, long been recognized, and the only
reason they have not been met is that the commission did not
see any way of providing for the additional cost of the proposed
East Side extension. But if the difficulty about the Bronx has
been settled on the understanding that such a line will be
started before two years have elapsed, it is evident that a de¬
termined effort will be made to remove the obstacles in the way
of a tunnel east of the Park. Such an addition to the prospec¬
tive transit facilities would also make it much easier to give an
effective southerly connection to the suburban passengers of
the Central, New Haven and Harlem roads, for some arrange¬
ment whereby the local traffic on those lines could be carried
south by the rapid transit route would be an obvious solution of
the terminal and tunnel difficulties of the Vanderbilt lines. It
would, moreover, give those suburban travelers a very much
better service than they are likely to get in any other way. The
reasons demanding the construction of such a tunnel are so
obvious and so overwhelming, and the new rapid transit sys¬
tem will be so mutilated and partly ineffective without it that
most determined pressure should be brought to bear until every
obstacle in the way has been removed.
THE successful marketing of dwellings built speculatively,
or more properly, commercially, on upper Fifth avenue,
is one of the signs of the rapidly growing wealth of the country
and, of course, of this community. The builders are to be con¬
gratulated rather upon their foresight than upon their luck. It
need not be supposed that the putting of from a quarter to half
a million of dollars into one house is done in any hajihazard
way, but rather on deliberate design slowly matured and in the
reasonable certainty of finding a market for the house when
completed. Most of the fine dwellings on Fifth avenue along¬
side the park have been built by contract for private owners,
and the gradual extension of this line of mansions above Fifty-
ninth street has been as clearly an indication of the growth of
the wealth of the country as have been the statistics of finance
and commerce. But of late this wealth has grown much faster