^eptember "f, 1907





RECORD   AND   GUIDE





357







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BlTsiĩfeSB ÃffoTHEKES Of'ŨEltøfl IKTEHfST.;

PRICE   PER  YEAR   IN  ADVANCE   EIGHT   DOLLARS

Communications sĩioiald  be  addressed to

C. W. SWEET

TubUshed EVery Satardas

By THB RECORD AND GUIDE CO.

Presldent,   CLINTON  W.   SWEET                        Treasurer,  P.  W. DODGE

Vice-Prea.  & Genl.  Mgr., H, W. DBSMOND         Secretary, F. T. MILLER

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(Telephone,   Madison   Square,  Í-ISO  to  4433.)

"Entcretl at the Post Offioe at Neto Tork, N.  Y., as sccoiid-class matter."
Copyrlghted.   1907,   by The Reeord  & Guide Co.





Vol. LXXX.





SEPTEMBER 7, 1907.





No. 20G0.





INDEX TO DEPAETMENTS.
Advertíslng  Sectlon.

Page.                                                    Page.

Cement   ......................xvi   Lumber    .....................xx

Ciay   Prodtĸts   ...............xvii    Machinery   ...................vi

Consulting   Engineers    ........xv   Metal   Work   ...............xlv

Contractors and Builders   .....iv   Quiclt Job Directory   ..........xx

E'lectrical   Interests   ..........vli   Real  Estate   ..................ix

Fireproofing   ..................ii   Wood  Products   ..............xxi

Granite   ..........'.........xviii   iStone   ....................xviil

Iron  and  Steel   ............viii    Wood   Products...........xxi

AS one reads the advertisements of Mr. Thomas W. Law-
son in the morning papers, he cannot help remark-
ing npon tĩie opportunity that gentleman has missed. Dur-
ing the period of rising prices in 1904-5 he was persist-
ently acting on the bear side of the market, and in spite
of certain temporary siiccesses, his campaign was, as every-
body knows, a failure. At one time it ĩooked as if he would
either he cleaned out or else reduced to insignificance as
a faetor in stock market speculation; and such would prob-
ably have heeu the case had not the San Francisco earth-
quake offered him a chance to get out with a comparatively
small loss. Then after a period of quiescence he emerged
as a bull, at least upon the stoclr of one copper miûing
company. Again, however, his campaign was iĩl-timeã.
After a preliminary success, he failed in his endeavor to ,
raise the price ot Trinity, both for general and special rea-
sons. Copper stocks, no matter how good, eould not well
be advancecl wheu tlie price of the metaî was declining,
when there was fear of a reaction in business and wheu
a general break in prices of securities was impending. The
general break came last March; and inasmuch as it had to
eome, the failure on Mr. Lawson's part to foresee it will
probably prove, in tlie end, lo be the great mistake of îiis
career in speculation. If he bad been operating on the hear
side of the market at that moment and advising his follow-
ing to do the same, one ean imagine what a good time he
wonld have had, and with what a íĩo'urish of trumpets he
wonld have sat on the back of the prostrate "system," He
could then, oí oaurse, claimed responsibility for one of the
sharpest breaks in prices which Wall Street has ever experi-
enced, and he could have enormously increased, not merely
his own resourees, but his prestige as a popular leader in
Wall Street speculation. But he missed his opportuuity,
and the attempts whieh he bas since been malĩing to ad-
vance prices have not added to his reputation as a man
who claims to "know the Wall Street game." Twice prices
have been advanced a few points only to faíl baek subse-
quently to new low leveĩs. At the present time he is un-
douhtedly right in advising everybody, who ean afford it,
to buy all the good railroad stocks which they cau afford
■to wĩthout horrowing money; but his advice is stiU ill-timed,
Good stocks ai'e cheap, but the time has not yet come to
make them much dearer.' If savings hank depositors were
to foilow his advice, and invest even $500,000,000 in secur-
ities, their action would precipitate one of the worst flnan-
'cial crisis which this country has ever witnessed.
-----------•-----------

FOĩt the owner of securities, or the speculator thereiu,
to allow himself to he over-influenced hy the prevail-
'ing state of feeling in Wall Street is always dangerous, but
it appears to he particularly dangerous at the present time.
The current stock market is under the influence of two sets
of condítîons putting in opposite direetions, aud tlie result
is not a síate of equilibrium,  but an  apparently  inevitabíe





see-saw. On the one hand tiie best railroad stocks in the
country are seĩĩing at prices so low as to diseount even a
period of very bad times. On the other hand the capital
which would ordinarily rush to buy stocks at the prevailing
prices is so eugaged that there is no apparent possibility of
a sustained movement on the buU side. When priees get
down below a certain level the opportunities íor profit cre-
ates a demand for stocks, which soon sends them back five
'or ten points; but after they have made their reeovery, the
desire to fake profits coupled with the diminution of de-
mand at the higher level, not only ehecks the upward trend
of prices, but usually throws the market back to a new low
record. T'hree times since the March panic have securities
been advanced anywhere from flve to -flfteen points, and
three times bas all the gain and more heen lost. On the
occasion of every advance the movement was checked, not
only hy the sale of many stocks bought at lower prices, but
by uews which indicated a business reaetion or business
diffleulties of one kind or another. Recently the market
has been easily advanced on comparatively small purchases
of securities, but a prudent man should recognize that this
movement is not likely to fare much better than its prede-
cessors. It is prohahle that the course o£ prices duríng the
winter and spring will be on the whole upward; hut during
ail this time the market will have to meet and overcome a
good deal of bad news. There will be more faiiures than
tiiose which have been yet announced, and perhaps more
important ones. The steel and certain otber manufacturing
businesses may well become less prosperous before they he-
come more so. How much bad news will be diselosed, uo
man can tell, but there are undouhtedly weaknesses in the
situation which will surely come to light. Many manufac-
turers have heen tempted by good times to enlarge theír
business too much or borrowed capital, and some of these
must go to the wall. It remains, cousequently, a good mar-
ket în which to take profits, either on one side or the other,
and it is a far better market in which to purchase securities
outright than it îs to carry them on a margin.





THE heads of departments of the city government are
maiîing their customary ahsurd demands upon the
Board of Estimate—demauds which, if they were granted,
would ĩncrease the municipal expenditure by over $30,000,-
000. Of course the Board of Estimate will refuse them; but
that body wiU none the less he obliged to increase the
budget by some $8,000,000 or $10,000,000, most of which
will be the result of mandatory legislation on the part of
the Legislature. There seems to be no chance under ex-
isting conditions of reducing this annual inerease, and in-
asmuch as the business of such a city as New York is neces-
sarily iucreasing, no objection can be urged to this rate of
increase on general grounds. What taxpayers would like
to learn, however, is why these increases are never miti-
gated by some effective measures of economy. The only
object of the various heads of departments is to secure for
the Board of Estiraate as much money as possible to spend.
We are not familiar with a single case under any kind ol
administration of a departmental chief who sought to re-
organize his department for the purpose of getting more
work for the same amount of money; and yet it stands to
reason that reorganizations of this.kind are as constantly
neeessary in pnhlic as in private oíflees. Just what thîs
waste amounts to cannot be said, but it unquestionably
amounts to a good deal. It is to he hoped that the Eureau
of Municipal Research will gradually be ahle to throw a
flood of light on this aspect of our municipal administra-
tion. There are most assuredly means of discovering the
amount oí waste per unit of work accomplisbed ĩn tbe vari-
ous city oíHces, and some standard should be established
to which departmental chiefs should he obliged, under se-
vere penalties, to conform.





THE probability that a new theatre will be built on Long
Acre Square calls attention to the fact that the thea-
tres of Manhattan are becomíng more than ever concentrated
uround one centre. The line of Broadway from Thirty-
ninth to Forty-sixth streets contains a larger proportion of
the existing places of amusement than did any similar dis-
trict ten or flfteen or twenty-flve years ago. A few thea-
tres linger along south of Thirty-fourth street, such as
Daly's and Wallacĩĩ's, hut it looks as if during .the next few
years they must meet the same fate as the Princess. In
the eourse of time Columhus Circle and the district to the
south   will  become   as  popular  as  Long  Acre  Square  is  at