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June 6, igo8
RECORD AND GUIDE
1051
ESTABLISHED-^ iWPHSl'-^^ 1858.
Dev&teD YO RfA,L Estaje.BuiLoij/g %:i(rrEeTUR,E.HausEKOLD DEeoriATiotI,
Bi/sirfess Alto Themes or'GEjtoi^l iKittiEsi..
PRICE PER YEAR IN ADVANCE EIGHT DOLLARS
Communications should be addressed to
C. W- SWEET
Published EVers) Saturdap
By THE RECOKD AND GUIDE CO.
president, CLINTON W. SWEET Treasurer, F. W, DODGE
Vlce-Pres. Sc Genl. Mgr., H. W. DESMOND Secretary, F. T. MILLER
Nos. XI lo 15 East 24tli Street, New York City
(Telephone, Madison Square, 4430 to 443.3.)
"Entered at the Post Office at New York, N. Y., as srcoiitl-elass niattrr."
Copyrighted, 190S, by The Record £ Guide Co,
Vol. LXXXl.
JUNE 6, 1908.
No. 2099.
THE spring has passed and the summer has come with¬
out being witness to any substantial recovery of
activity in the real estate market. The total number of
conveyances recorded each week remains smaller than the
small totals of last year, while the increased ease of the
money market has uot availed to bring up the amount of
money loaned to the level which prevailed during the
stringency, of loanable capital in the spring of 1907. Real
estate in and around New York is dull as it has'not been
dull since 1900; but if it is dull, it is not wealr, and its
continued dullness is only natural. When a business re¬
vival takes place real estate gets the benefit of it only after
the movement has gained some headway. The recuperative
forces making for an economic betterment are first con¬
centrated on the more fluid parts of the business area; and
it is only after busiueEs men have been making, and work-
ingmen have heen saving, money for a good many months
that real estate becomes active and large amounts of cap¬
ital are again invested in building. Moreover, it is essen¬
tial for a wholesome recovery of the real estate market
that the renewed prosperity should not be fictitious but
should be the result of an actual renewal of the springs
of industrial and financial energy. An increase in rea!
estate values and an active building movement cannot be
financed without an abundance of loanable capital, and
such a fund must be accumulated as a C9Udition of any¬
thing more than a sporadic improvement. The real estate
and building interests may consequently loolt with equa¬
nimity upon the prospect of a continuation of the present
dullness until next winter. After the election is over there
is every probability of a renewal of activity in New York
real estate—provided, of course, general business has in the
meantime somewhat recovered.
IT is very probable that during the coming w'lnter a
movement will take place in real estate similar to
that which has recently been observed in stocks. The mar¬
ket for real estate in this city is almost as much under
the control of professional speculators as is the stock mar¬
ket; and any real estate revival wiil begin with specu¬
lative buying in those parts of the city which seem to
offer the best opportunities for profit. Like all specula¬
tive movements, this buying will begin a year or two before
actual conditions may warrant it, but it is, of course,
peculiarly the function of the speculator to anticipate the
movement of prices, and to sell out when the course of
business makes his anticipations good. There is every rea¬
son to believe, consequently, that active speculative buy¬
ing will begin during the winter and spring of 1909; and
the only conditions which might prevent it would be the
improbable ones of severe business depression or a tight
money market. Neither can there be much doubt as to the
parts of the city which will be benefited by this movement.
The districts in which there is a chance for an early profit
in real estate, are much restricted by the indefinite post¬
ponement of the construction of new subways. The Bronx
will feel the effects of this delay most severely, but it will
also have its effects upon the upper East Side of Manhat¬
tan. On the other hand, it is probable not only that there
will be a renewal of activity on Washington Heights, but
tbat this renewal will extend along the whole upper line
of the existing subway. The Dyckman tract, after having
been dormant for four years, will awaken Into renewed
life, and those parte pf tlie Bronx whlcb are reached by tUe
subway will continue their development. The alterations
that are being made in and about the 96th street station
will increase the capacity of the subway very considerably
and also enable it to accommodate a considerable increase
of population along its route. There can be no doubt,
however, that during the next five years the bulk of the
increase of New York in population will seek residences oq
Long Island and New Jersey. When the tunnels now un¬
der construction are in full operation, iarge areas to the
east and west of Manhattan will become comparatively
much more accessible than they are at present, and it is
inevitable that they should reap the benefit of tbis in¬
creased accessibility. But if Long Island and New Jersey
will draw population from Manhattan and the Bronx be¬
cause of their improved means of communication, these
same improvements can do nothing but good to the busi¬
ness interests of Manhattan. Distribution of population,
when it is brought aboul by improved means of communica¬
tion, helps to concentrate business. Five years from now
Manhattan merchants will control a larger rather than a
smaller in-oportion of the gross retail business of the city,
and this gain will more than offset whatever the borough
may lose from the inevitable transfer of certain manufac¬
turing plants to the otber boroughs. The great specula¬
tive movement of the next few years is likely to take place
in those parts of Manhattan which will reap the benefit in
business from the improved means of communication with
Long Island aud New Jersey.
T^HE Public Service Commission should, at the earliest
"^ possible opportunity, resume negotiations with the
Interborough Company for the purchase of the tunnel to
Long Island City. The Legislature has granted It powers
sufficient for the purpose, and there cau be no doubt that
its purchase is demanded by the public interests of the
city. Here is a tunnel which is already built and which
could be put into operation a few months after its pur¬
chase. Its operation would be a great boon to the resi¬
dents of Queens, and it could be made almost equally help¬
ful to the business interests of certain parts of Manhattan.
There is no way in which a sum of money could be spent
upon rapid transit that would bring more and quicker
benefit in proportion to its cost to a larger number of
people, and it is sincerely to be hoped , that the Public
Service Commission can reach some fair arrangement with
the Interborough Company. Moreover, in case such an
arrangement is reached, the tunnel should be extended to
some better terminal In Manhattan, if it is not prolonged
any further west than it goes at present its value will be
enormously diminished. Its termiual should not be any
further east than Eighth avenue, and it shonl'd be connected
so far as possible with the subway stations on 42d street
and with the Grand Central Depot. Whether it could fol¬
low the line of 42d street at a level deeper than the exist¬
ing subway, we do not know, but if such a route could
not be arranged, it should cross 41st street and be provided
with underground connections with important points on
42d street. Then it would reach the heart of the theatrical
and amusement district, and would benefit all the restau¬
rants and theatres situated in that vicinity.
'TAHE .spending of $7,000,000 or more upon the tunnel to
-*â– Long Island City would, however, necessarily bring
with it one important consequence. The city cannot afford
to appropriate from its small margin of capital $7,000,000
for this tunnel and $16,000,000 or more for the Fourth ave¬
nue subway in South Brooklyn, and the Board of Estimate
will undoubtedly insist upon the abandonment of either
one project or the other. The project which should be
abandoned is unquestionably the Fourth avenue subway.
That subway has been a mistake from the beginning and
should never have heen laid out, and in making this asser¬
tion the Record and Guide is not preoccupied by any spe¬
cial preference for the interest of Manhattan and Bronx
-compared to the interest of Brooklyn. We have favored
the construction of bridges and tunnels to Brooklyn and
Queens wherever their construction can be justified by
sound economic reasons—and this in spite of the fact that
Manhattan real estate pays more than half the cost ot
these improvements without reaping anything like half the
benefit. We should be glad to see the city purchase the
Belmont tunnel and construct the combined subway and
elevated road, whereby it Ib proposed to connect the Flat-
bush avenue station in Brooklyn with Canal street and the
Bowery in Manhattan, Such expenditures can be Justifled
by their fruits. But to spend ?16,000,000 or more upon a