Columbia University Libraries Digital Collections: The Real Estate Record

Real estate record and builders' guide: v. 18, no. 433: July 1, 1876

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Real Estate Record AND BUILDERS' GUIDE. Vol. XVIII. NEW TOEK, SATURDAY, JULY 1, 1876. No. 433. Published Weekly hy THE REAL ESTAFE RECORD ASSOCIATION. C. W. S WEET...............Pkesident and Tbeasueek PRESTON r. SWEET...........Secbetaby. TERMS. OBTE YEAR, in advance___§10 00. Coinmuuications should be addressed to Nos. 345 AND 347 Broadway. THE FUTURE OE NEW YORK. The following extract fi-om a private letter ad' di-essed to the editor of The Real Estate Rec¬ ord shows how one our of large but conservati"ve property owners looks at the situation ; * * * The future of New York is so much a matter of speculation and imagination that I do not allow my mind to dwell upon it any more than I can help. My idea of its continued great¬ ness and supremacy is based upon this simple fact, thai she has the start—so great a one that no competitor on this continent can hope to outrival her—competitive efforts will in the future, as always in the past, merely stimu¬ late and nerve her to greater efforts. The future of her real estate is quite another matter, though not entirely disconnected. In this department I claim to be a watchful ob¬ server of current events, moulding my conclu¬ sions from day to day, using all the forecast I can command, but in no sense a seer or pro¬ phet. I disagree totally with a multitude who think high prices the true test of our greatness and criterion of health in our real estate market. They have the foreboding of disaster written plainly on their fnce. New York is just recov¬ ering from a great peril. The high prices, if much longer continued, would have ruined her quicker than competition. Low prices, that now threaten to prevail, will be her salvation, though of course involving the financial ruin of one hundred or on e thousand speculators. They win be gainers in the end along with the masses. this amount greatly in 1873. We will assume that the amount sawn last year was equal to that of 1870 (1,388.000,000), and adding 90,000.000 for logs made into shingles, makes the total product of the Eastern States 1,478,000,000 feet. For what we will call the Middle and Western States—New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, niinoie, Iowa and Missouri—pro¬ ducing pine, hemlock, spnice, and hardwoods, we have the Government returns of lumber sawn in 1870 as 5,156 millions, and logs made into shingles 170 millions, making a total of 5,326 millions. From this amount we should deduct 425 millions for logs obtained in other ssctions, and also consider a probable decrease in the amount of lumber sawn of ten per cent., or 532 millions, which would leave the total product of the Middle and Western States 4,369 million feet, showing the total consumption of logs in the Northwestern, Eastern and Middle States on my hypothesis for the year 1875,10,799 million feet. Of logs left over from the fall of 1875 we find Michigan had 585 millions, Wisconsin and Min¬ nesota 327 millions, and a proportionate amount back for the Eastern and Middle and Western States would be, for the Eastern States 276 mil¬ lions, and for the Middle and Western States t „„= „„r,^„..f0.1 ,-„+., i__»,„«„ i „i,- i->„ 10-7= nnn ii- I- iiiii ij.i3l Logs converted into lumber and shingles, 1875. 803 millions, making the total amount of old , Lumber from Canada 1875 logs on hand Jan. 1,1876, 1,991 million feet. I will here remark that THE STOCK OF LUMBER. of that held in 1875, which would be 1,656 mil¬ lions; this amount, added to wholesalers' stock, would make the entire stock of lumber on band Jan 1, 1876, 4,296 million feet. Should any one consider this amount nndereg- ti'mated, let inquiry be made of retailers and others, and it will be found that stocks run from thirty to seventy per cent, of the amount held last year, and in addition to this numbers have retired from business during the year, and many of the largest'retailers have taken up with the idea of the boy, who, doubtful of his art, wrote under his picture,'"This is a horse," and now tell us in the largest possible letters, "This is a lumber yard," where formerly the extent of the lumber piles gave the intimation. It being necessary, in order to show the entire consumption, I tried to ascertain the exact im¬ ports from Canada for the calendar year 187?, but could only get those for the fiscal year end¬ ing June 30, 1875, which we will consider cor¬ rect, and which are 465 million feet. So that, taking the figures above given as cor¬ rect, and I believe they will be found as nearly fo as it is possible to get them, we have the follow¬ ing results: Million Ft. liUmber on hand Jan. 1,1875.................. 5,520 ' 10,799 465 16,784 Deduct lumber on hand Jan. 1,187G.............. 4,296 To the Editor of the Real Estate Record: Sie: According to promise, I give you below figures to bear oiut my representations of the scanty supply of lumber and logs on hand for the wants of the country tiU fresh stock can be obtained; and here allow me to. say that, apart irom information derived from the columns of The Eecoed, I am greatly indebted to the Northwestern Lumberman, of Chicago, and the iMwbermarCs Gazette, oi Bay City, Michigan, for valuable statistics, which I shall use, without fiirther mentioning my sourcea of information. Taking first the essentially pine-producing States of the Northwest—Michigan, Wisconsin, and MimiesotiEb—we have for the season of 1875 in Michigan, lumber sawn, 2,746 millions; logs made into shingles, 252 ndllions; and loga sent outside the State, over 50 millions; together, 3,048 million feet. In Wisconsin and Minne¬ sota, lumber sawn, 1,379 millions; logs made mto shingles, 150 millions; and logs sent'to other parts, 375 millions; together, 1,904 mil- llon feet, wliich makes the:total consumption of logs for the year 1875 in the Northweetsm States, 4,952 million feet. - The Eastern States—Miine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Connecticut and Massachusetts—^pro¬ ducing largely spruce and hemlock, mixed with hardwoods and pine, sawed for the year ending June 30, 1870, 1,388,000,000 feet, and exceeded I shall confine my observations to the districts above mentioned, leaving out of consideration the Southern and Pacific States, which would only add to the figures without materially affecting the result. It is yet rather early to have close figures of logs banked for this year, but I have given the subject considerable attention, and in default of returns from our Northwestern friends, which I hope will be given before long, I vrill make , estimates which I think will be fonnd not far ' from correct, and put the Northwestern States, at 2,900 milhons, the Eastern States at 900 millions, and the Middle States at 2,200 millions, making the total amount of logs banked for the spring of 1876 in districts named 6,000 million feet. From a carefully prepared compilation by Mr. G. E. Stockbridge, secretary of the Lum¬ berman's Exchange of Chicago, we learn that tha stocks of lumber on hand in the principal mill yards and wholesale yards of the country, from the Hudson Eiver to and including the Mississippi, were, for Jan. 1, 1876, 1,761 million feet, which, compared with stocks on hand the same date in 1875, of 1,841 millions, shows a de¬ crease of 80 millioBS in specified mill yards and wholesale yards; and since his list did not em¬ brace any tiling east of the Hudson, and omitted most of the interior mill yards of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, froin which we have recently got returns, showing about 700 million feet not taken into consideration by him, we may safely put the entire wholesale stock of the coun¬ try at fifty per cent, more than his figures, which would give for what we will call the wholesale stock on hand Jan. 1, 1876, 2,640 million feet, as compared with stock on hand Jan. 1, 1875, 2,760 million feet. Under ordinary circumstances retailers, box- makers, builders, and other consumers of lum¬ ber hold stocks equal to the amount in whole • salers' hands, so that, adding the stocks held by retailers and ' others to those in wholesale yards, and mill yards, we should have for the entire stock of lumber on hand Jan. 1, 1875, 5,520 million feet. Taking the wholesale stock for Jan. 1, 1876, Totals, pes........ 3,13U02 3,489,963 2,037,561 as 2,640 millions, we will estimate the itock in Or over three niiUion pieces for 1873, nearly hands of retailers and others as sixty per ceat. three and a half millions for 1874, and only two Total consumption, 1875.........•............12,488 Lumber on hand Jan. 1.1876..............4.296 Logs left over from 1875..................1,991 Logs banked for 1876..................... 6.000— 12.287 Excess of consumption over lumber and logs . onhand.................................. 201 Showing that the consumption last year was 201 miUion feet in excess of lumber on hand and all old and new logs existing this spring; and this is the stock that must last us for fully eighteen month?, till fresh and green lumber wUl come in next year. And apart from the few milhons ol feet of board lumber now on hand, we cannot expect the sHghtest assistance from Canada, as, before our people wake up to a knowledge of a scarcity of lumber, British mer¬ chants will have control of all desirable stock there, and are even now buying largely in Michigan and Maine. While we are regaling OTUselves with accounts of duU times abroad, no demand for timber and aU such stuff, we find the whole South filled with tim¬ ber ships, and as soon as St. John could be comlortably reached it was crowded with double the tonnage of last year; and now we find, since the St. Lavrrence opened, that up to June 15 Quebec has received 287,350 tons of shipping, as compared with 155,354 tons last year, and, what is still more to the point, that every ton of shipping is engaged. In other words, we find the far-seeing British merchant, knowing the fact of a scarcity of lumber and timber on all hands, has the foresight to hny when and where he can do so to advantage. Moreover, the stock of logs banked in Canada, both last year and this year, wiU be found to be less than one season's stock of either of the two previous years; and, for the information of your readers, I will give the figures obtained from the Crown .Land Office in Quebec for the three years preceding this one, for logs cut on Government lands in that province: Logs banked winter of 1872-73. 1873-74. 1874-75. White pine,, pes...... 2 243,714 2.387,863 1459 743 Spruce, pes........... 890,388 1,102,100 577,818 ^g^*^