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Real estate record and builders' guide: [v. 30, no. 768: Articles]: December 2-9, 1882

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Decembers—9, 1883 The Record and Guide. 103 THE RECORD AND GUIDE. 191 Broad way, N. Y. DECEMBER 2—9, 1883. PRICE OF RECORD AND GUIDE. Per Anmim, _ . . - With Supplement, - » . . Record and Guide, Single Copy, With Supplement, - - - . $5.0C 6.00 10 cents. 15 " reasonable figure, the production may be estimated to be in 1890, 167,500 tons, and in 1900, 335,000 tons. 4.—COPPER. Inc. in 10 years. 5,C00 1-J,000 Inc. per ct. 63 93 Inc. in 10 Inc. years. 3,081,00) 21,400,000 per ct. 174 370 The Statistics ofthe Industrial Future. It is a very common practice of newspaper statisticians to publish flgures showing tlie probable future population of tliis and other countries, based on the past ratio of increase.; but hitherto little attention has been given to the probable future of our great industries. It is, of course, a somewhat dangerous field, for production is far more variable from one decide to another than is the increase in population. Yet, perhaps, it may not be unprofitable to attempt a forecast of the great industrial interests of the United States, based upon the progress made in ihe past. In The Recced and Guide of November llth tables were pub¬ lished showing the steady growth of all our productive industries. The figures were given of the annual production of cotton, the cereals, coal, pig iron, lead, copper, quicksilver ah.d petroleum, together with gold and silver. Of course, there were many and great fluctuations, but the increase, counted by decades, was sur¬ prisingly large. For instance, in 1852, we mined 5,725,000 tons of anthracite coal, in 1881, 30,262,000 tons. In 1852 we produced 541,000 tons of pig iron ; in 1881 4,144,000. Of petroleum, we pro¬ duced 3,000 barrels in 1859; in 1881 27,264,000; 1,000 tons of copper in 1852 had swollen to 31,000 in 1881 ; in 1834-5 we pro¬ duced 1,254,338 bales of cotton, the crop of the present year may run beyond 7,000,000 bales, and in no event can it fall much short of that large figure. In 1840 we produced 84,821,065 bushels of wheat; in 1883 the yield estimated is 520,000,000 bushels of wheat. The corn product in 1840 was 377,492,388 bushels, and forty years later 1,717,434,543. The increase in other cereals was also very large. These figures are really startling, and would give point to the most resplendent Fourth of July oration. Indeed, Americans are justified in their extravagant utterances as to the splendid future of their country. In the following we give the production for every tenth year, and venture to estimate, taking the past ratio, what the increase ought to be in 1890 and 1900 : I.—ANTHRACITE COAL. Year. Tons. Year. Tons. 1860 ..................... 8,000 ]8'0..........13,00 1870..................... 13,000 1S80...........25,000 The production of copper has increased in a comparatively equal ratio since 1852, the average increase being about 1,000 tons per annum ; though in recent years, notably from 1880 to 1881, there was an increase in one year alone of 6,000 tons. Taking, however, the average increase of the past twenty years as a criterion, the production of copper may be estimated as follows : In 1890, 44,250 tons, and 1900, 78,322. 5.—PETROLEUM. Year. Bbls. Year. Bbl.s. 18G0-1........2,114,000 1870-1............ 5,795,000 1870-1........ 5,795,000 1880-1............ 27,204,000 The production of petroleum has steadily increased, having been 2,114,000 barrels in 1861, and 27,264,000 in 1881, showing an increase of about 1,189 per cent, in twenty years, being an average of 59 per cent, per annum. Should the production of this oil increase in the same ratio, it would reach the following figures : 1890, 172,035,840 bbls., and in 1900, 332,893,440. A'prospcctive increase such as this would probably be enough to abolish every vestige of the " bulls' who have for some time been in the market. But the future pro¬ duction of this mineral oil is wholly a matter of conjecture. The news may come any time that the oil region has " petered" out. While the production has steadily increased for the i^ast twenty- two years, still there is no history behind it to warrant even a guess as to the future supply. Should, however, the production increase only a quarter as fast as during the last decade, that is, 92.50 per cent., the figures would be 52,483,200 barrels in 1890, and 101,030,160 in 1900. C—GOLD. 1800.'... .. $40,000,000 Year. 1870....".. $.'50,000,000 Year. 1870............ 850,000,000 Year. 1880....... Inc. in 10 Inc. years, s. per ct. S4,000,000 8 Dec. inlO Dec. years. per ct. §10,478,000 49 Year. Tons. 1800........... 9,eo7,ono 1870............ 17,820,000 Year. Tons. 1870........... 17,820,000 1880.........24,813,000 Inc. in 10 Inc. years. 8,013,000 7,023,000 per ct. 81 39 .... $3.3.532,000 Gold has been a decreasing production since 1854, when it was $60,000,000, In] 1881 it had declined to $31,870,000, It is, how¬ ever, reasonable to suppose that henceforth our production of gold may largely increase. Within the last six years our railway system has been extended to every important mining region in the Rocky and Sierra Nevada Mountains, and we are likely at any time to open up bonanzas equal to those several times discovered on the Com¬ stock Ledge. We now have the experienced miners, the trained experts, and the organized capital, ready to utilize the labors of the army of prospectors who now swarm over all the mineral regions where gold or silver is likely to be found. Thus, any year the pro¬ duction of gold may double, so that reliable computation is hardly possible. 1860-1........$-2,000,000 1870-1........22,100.000 7.—SILVER. 1870-1.....■..$23,100,003 18S0-1........ 45,078,000 Inc. in 10 years. $20,100,000 22,978,000 Ine. per ct. 1.005 103 The production of this mineral has increased in variable propor¬ tion ; for example, in 1881 it rose to 80,262,000 tons, being an increase of 5,419,000 in one year, which is equal to an annual increment of 31 per cent. In this ratio, the production in 1900 would be 123,966,570 tons, a figure which even the most sanguine would scarcely dare to predict. Taking the average increase during the past two decades, the figure in 1890 will be 39,748,800 tons, and in 1900, 63,598,080. 3.—PIG IRON. Inc. in 10 Inc. per year.'^. 875,000 2,139,000 It is impossible to estimate with any degree of accuracy the figure at which this mineral will stand, owing to the possibility of fiscal rearrangements which may effect a revolution in this article during the next generation, but should the proportionate increase be equal to the previous years, the production may be estirnated as follows : In 1890, 8,283,600 tons; in 1900, 17,892,576. Should the production only increase half as quickly as during the last ten years, the figures would stand: In 1890, 6,251,050, and in 1900 10,189,211 tons. 3.—LEAD. Tons. 1800............ 821,00J 1870............ ],09b,0,/0 Tons. 1870............ 1,090,(00 1880............3,835,000 cent. 106 126 Year. Tons. 1800.....................14,000 1870...................... 16,000 Year. Tons. 1870............ 16.000 1880............ 95,'00 :c. in 10 Inc. years. 2,000 79,000 perct 14 493 The production of silver from 1861 to 1871 increased in an unparalelled degree, having been ten times greater in 1871 than in 1861, The increase from 1871-81 is probably a more reasonable basis on which to estimate the future figures, and should tiie pro¬ duction increase during the next two decades but half^as quickly as during the last ten years, that is 51,50 yier cent, during each decade, it will reach the following value : In 1890, $68,293,170, and in 1900, $91,508,340. 8.—WHEAT. Bushels. 1850..........100.164,250 1860...........170,170,0^7 1870...........215,884,700 18S0............498,519.803 Inc. ill to ye.irs. Bushels, 15,343.191 70,011.771 05.708,673 202,005,103 Increase per cent, decim'ly. 18 09 38 IU It will be noticed that the production of this mineral has increased very rapidly since 1870, having been almost stationary from 1852 until that year. The increase from 1860 to 1880 has been 578 per cent,, which, if continued in the same ratio, would raise the production in 1900 to 644,100 tons, which is undoubtedly far beyond the mark. The production during recent years has increased at the rate of 7,350 tons per annum, and, taking this paore Bushels. 1840..........84,821,'65 1850...........100,164,250 1860.........170,176.027 1870...........2.35,884,700 It will be observed that the ratio of increase in this cereal has been variable during the last four decades, rising from 18 to 69 per cent., and from 38 to 111 per cent,, decennially. This is account¬ able principally by the good and bad croi^s alternately. There can be little doubt that the production will increase very largely in the future, and presuming that our agricultural population will advance as in the past, we may fairly assume that the medium ratio between the two last decades may be taken as the prospective increase during the next twenty years, namely, 74,50 (38-Mll-:-2=74,50), which would give us the following figures: In 1890, 869,969,519 bushels, and in 1900,1,518,096,860. 9.—CORN. Bushels. 1849.......... 3"7,492,388 1850.......... 591,630.564 1860.......... 827,094,527 1870..........1,094,955,000 Bushels. 1850....... 591,630,504 1860........ 827,094,527 1870........1,094,255,000 1880........1,717,434,543 In", in 10 Increase years. percent. Bushels, decenni'ly. 214,138,176 56 225,463,903 33 267,1.60,473 32 023,179,543 56 We have calculated this as well as the previous cereal from 1840 upwards, and it wiU be observed that the rate of increase is the same in the ten years following both 1840 and 1870, and in those subsequent to 1850 and 1860 nearly equal. Taking the mean per¬ centage of the last twenty years, namely, 44 per cent,, as tbe ratio