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Real estate record and builders' guide: v. 71, no. 1818: January 17, 1903

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January 17, 1903. IIECORD AND GUIDE 89 CeJoth) to KEA.L EsTA.!!;. BuildtjIg Ji^R.cKrrECTURE .Household Degch^iidiI. BUSit/ESSAltoTFIEHESOFGEttel^ IKT^IRPI- PRICE PER YEAR IN ADVANCE- SIX DOLLARS Published eVerg Saturday Communications shoulJ bo nddressed to C. W. SWEET. 14-16 Vesey Street, New Yort 1. T. LINDSEY, Business Manogtr Toloplione, Cortlandt 3157 "Entered at the Tost Cffice at New York, iV". ]'.. as seCond-clai^s matter." No. ISiS "Vol. LXXI. JANUARY 17, 1903. THERE is a distinct feeling of disappointment in Wall Street because the January interest and dividend disbursements have not found their way into that interesting; thoroughfare in the manner that everyhody thought they would do at the begin¬ ning of the year. It is a fact that tbe marl^et is unmistakably proressional, and that tbe public tbat came in on the break in the middle of last month have departed, and no new outsiders have taken their places. It is, however, too soon to cry out. Money disbursed all over the country takes some time to settle itself into newchannels and in timesof great commercial activity the proportion tbat finds its way into listed securities is natur¬ ally smaller than at others. While call money is easy and should,probably,encourage speculative short time ventures, time money is still relatively high and not inducive of purchases of investment issues at present prices for a long pull. With money for definite periods five aad five and a half per cent, and the best stocks and bonds paying less than four per cent., no one wants to buy with the expectation of cai-rying his purchase for six months or a year, unless there is a pretty sure prospect of a rising market. When that comes the difference between income and interest cuts little flgure. As to the more speculative issues, the reaction that the week has witnessed ought to en¬ courage a tin'n in tbe professional and speculative temper. Part of the hesitation now observable may be attributed to the posi¬ tion occupied by that historic disappointment Erie. Whether any one of the several stories about purchase for control by Western interests is true or not, tbe movements of the bonds and preferred stocks shows that there is now something on the carpet of a favorable nature for the property. One can hardly imagine that it will take the form of allowing a discordant ele¬ ment to come into the settled calm of the Eastern Trunk Line situation, but in these days one never knows. It would be the greatest pity if the understanding that has existed for years am.ong the Eastern trunk lines should be broken by any circum¬ stance, because by reducing competition and maintaining and even advancing rates, that understanding has been an important ■factor ill giving the railroad interests of the country their recent prosperity. An event of happy significance was the sharp break in exchange rates this week, produced partly by European buy¬ ing in our market and, what is much more important, partly by the infiuence of exports of grain and other products. The mone¬ tary relations between this country and Europe are by no means such as free us entirely from the danger of gold exports, but this break being incidental to a period of easier money here reduces the probability of such a movement. J~) Y all odds the most interesting and important news item -^-^ from abroad is that relating to the Soutb Airican settle¬ ment. It is not clear that the exact facts ave known, but this much is evident, tbe Transvaal, or as it should be read, the gold mining interest of the Rand, will come off very well. The total cost of the war was £215,000,000, and if that interest is simply to be responsible for £30,000,000 issued in three annual instal¬ ments and not maturing for ten years, certainly no one can complain. This arrangement, in connection with the obligations of the British government for the repatriation and re-establish¬ ment of Boer farmers, ought to give the colony a good start and provide that impetus to the development of the country that it needs. In any circumstance the pace is going to be slow, be¬ cause, as one authority puts it, while South Africa is a country of enormous resources, it requires the investment of an enor¬ mous amount of capital to develop them. But a beginning has been made, and it only needs this financial settlement between tbe supreme government and tbe colony to set things going. In addition to this, it is now understood that the labor required in the mines, which the country itself seems unable to supply, will be drawn from China's teeming hordes of coolies. The preliminaries adjust themselves slowly, but they are adjusting themselves nevertheless, and what the world at large wants to see, the gold industry in full workiTig order, will come in due course. The news weakened consols in the expectation that it presaged the floating of the long delayed British loan and tbe circumstances will open the way to profitable purchases of that security. More attention is being drawn to French buying In the London market, which has extended from government bonds into South African and Westralian gold mining shares. Money is more plentiful and sheap iu Paris than anywhere else and the buying power of the French people seem inexhaustible. Yet it has only just happened that the credit of the Republic has been established upon a proper basis. The conversion of the debt into 3% rentes is now accomplished, and as the bonds converted included those issued in 1S71 and 1872 at 5% and at prices to yield 6%, which, by successive conversions, are now brought down to three per cent, rentes, this is the record of the growth of the country's credit in thirty years. As it is consols at di yield only 2.79;, while 3% rentes are quoted at par. The differ¬ ence is tie reward on one side of the channel and tbe penalty, on the other tor their several and differing attitudes to¬ ward economic and political questions. The announcement of budget deficiencies—of ?20,000,000 in France and $9,375,0CO in Prussia—ought not to occasion any surprise, because they wei'e expected, and no anxiety because they are expressive of condi¬ tions that are being rapidly ameliorated. Tney foreshadow ap¬ peals to capital and form part of the inciting cause of the changed feeling and renewal of activity on the European bourses. Money is veritably pouring into the great reservoirs of national funds and rates are returning to surfeit figures, facts encourage stock market operations, and it is somewhat singular to note that European opinion of American issues is, at the mo¬ ment, somewhat more favorable than our own. MORE than usual interest attaches to the returns of our for¬ eign trade for December, because they reveal that just what was desired has taken place. That is that the export movement of our agricultural products is being accelerated in a way that will materially lessen our indebtedness to Europe. Out of a total of $148,006,823 of merchandise exports, ?91.985,223 rep¬ resented agricultural products. This was about $21,000,000 more of the same class of goods than was shipped in November and about $7,500,000 more thau was shipped in the corresponding month of last year. It will be remembered that owing to the partial failure of the corn crop, agricultural exports declined so materially last year as to occasion a good deal of fear of its in¬ fiuence upon the trade balance. Meantime we have been im¬ porting goods from abroad in increased volume, and this has added to tbe fear tbat already existed regarding those relations. In the past year the relative figures for exports and imports left the balance in favor of home trade 5391,4i,(j,346, to compare with a similar balance of $584,855,950 in 1901, It was in fact the smallest since 1897. But, while the favorable balance in the last month of the year was less than either that of 1901 or that of 1900, it was somewhat higher thau that of 1899. This change was not produced wholly by agricultural products, because ex¬ ports of other merchandise increased considerably, both as com¬ pared with the movement of the preceding month and with that for December, 1901. While it would be unwise to lay too much stress upon last month's increased outward merchandise move¬ ment, and also to minimize the effects of our still voluminous exports (the figures for the later being $94,367,201 in December, 1902, and $79,929,271 in December, 1901), especially in view of our heavy pecuniary obligations abroad, it is satisfactory to note that the exports of merchandise are growing and justifiable to expect, with the renewal of commercial and industrial activity in Europe, that the movements of the two classes of our foreign trade will return to their normal proportions. No apprehension need ordinarily be attached to increased imports iu a time of in¬ dustrial activity, as they are natural to such a condition of affairs, nor would any be felt if it were not known that we have beeng doing a good deal of financing with foreign funds, and tbat owing partly to the depression abroad, and partly to our own activity at home, we have been marketing less of our products with foreign consumers. Any indication, therefore, of a renewal of foreign demand for our products and manufac¬ tures is worthy of notice and productive of pleasurable anticipa¬ tion for the future. In gold the balance for the year is $8,132,191 in our own favor and $097,010 against us for the month, Tha latter is explained by tbe recent shipments to Argentine for Lon¬ don account. Silver went out more freely in December than in the year, the balance for the month being $2,854,5t;9 and for the year $22,870,019. Comparatively there was an increase for December over the same month of 1901, and a considerable de¬ crease for the year 1902 as against 1901. The low price prevail-