Columbia University Libraries Digital Collections: The Real Estate Record

Real estate record and builders' guide: v. 73, no. 1892: June 18, 1904

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June i8, 1904- RECORD AND GUIDE 1549 Bosii/ess Alio Themes OF CJETiER^l IfJiER^aT. PRICE PER YEAR IN ADVANCE SIX DOLLARS Publhfied eVers Saturday Communications should be addressed to C. W. SWEET. 14-16 Vesey Street, New YorK J. T. LINDSEY. Busliif»« Mana="r Telophono. Cortlandt 3157 "Entei-ed at the I'osl Offlce at New York, N. Y.. a3 second-class matta:' Vol. LXXIIL JUNE 18, 1904. No. 1S92. are also unfavorable. It is true that the stock market has a way of looking much further ahead than its critics sometimes recognize, antl that the prevailing quotations oftener represent anticipated values six months hence than present values. It is also true, at least in the opinion of the writer, that six or eight months from now the general situation will be distinctly better than it is at present. Nevertheless, prices are not likely to raove decisively, chiefly because the market has not had time to re¬ cover its tone. It is still more under the influence of its recent past than of its probable future; and its probable future is still too uncertain. Of course, the chances of a decisive movement improve jiist in proportion as good crop prospects become good crop realities, for good crops will assuredly keep business in a comparatively steady and prosperous condition, But in any event it is probable that the decisive movement will not come until after the presidential election is over. IN the talk current at present, about dullness in trade, it must never be forgotten that the consolidation of onr in¬ dustries carried on in recent years has very probably rendered those industries ranch more sensitive to unfavorable trade con¬ ditions than they were before consolidation. It is easy to see that the industrial organism tends to become much more deli¬ cate in pro])Ortion to its specialization. A falling olT in business of say one per cent, in a consolidated trade that employs say one hundred thousand men. is immediately felt throughout the entire organization, being registered at a central point; whereas, an etiual decline under old conditions which might affect a small factory here and a small factory there, and yet in the total result in a one per cent, falling otf would be recorded very much slower in the commercial register. Perhaps, in this fact we have an explanation for the apparent groat sensitive¬ ness of trade conditions at the present moment to very slight adverse trade influences—influences which, it seems to older experience ought not to count for so much. If the present general commercial condition of the United States could have been produced a comparatively few years ago, say just after the panic. w.e would have had a stiff stock market and general sat¬ isfaction in all counting-houses, stores and factories, It is un¬ derstood, of course, that there undoubtedly are special and good reasons at the present moment for the fact that the com¬ mercial world is a little b'it "off," but, after all, the "off" is much more in the mental attitude of the people than in the actual concrete condition of our affairs. It is well to remember too that there is a fashion in grumbling as in most other things. The surfeited are particularly prone to dissatisfaction, and after so long a period of good crops and big exports, high wages and big profits, as this country has enjoyed, it is perhaps inevitable that because the gain does not go on forever without check or pause, it should be expected that people should adopt an attitude of languid complaint, shrug shoulders and shake heads as though the world was moving in a very bad sort of a way. MIDSUMMER dullness has descended on the real estate market rather earlier than usual. It was remarked dur¬ ing the time of greatest activity in 1901 and 1902 that the period during which large and interesting transactions were consum¬ mated, tended to stretch pretty well into July, but such has not been the case during the current year. It is only a compara¬ tively small business that is now being done, although the vol¬ ume of that business is larger than during the corresponding period of 1903; and its interest consists chiefly in the indication it affords of the probable course of the real estate market next fall and winter. The continued purchases on the part of the New York Central transcending as they do the limits originally laid out for the station improvement distinctly, suggest that corporation buying will continue to be an influential factor in the real estate market in certain parts of the city. The great hope, however, consists in the combined influence of an excellent renting situation with an abundance of money. This combina¬ tion of conditions has not existed for years, and should encour¬ age not merely speculative building but investment purchases. In the meantime the building of new tenement houses both ia Manhattan and The Bronx is increasing rather than diminishing In volume; and there is every indication that the season of 1904-1905 will constitute a record in the additions which it will make to the residential equipment of New York City. THERE is no reason to suppose that the current rise in the prices of securities will continue very long or will pro- ■duce further important results. Prices rise because the specula¬ tive situation is more favorable than it was; but they can hardly continue to rise, because the general investment situation ■does not warrant it and because general investment conditions A GREAT many hands have been raised in horror at tbe burning of the "General Slocum." The accident was appalling, undoubtedly, but what of it? It will be forgotten in a few weeks like the Chicago Iroquois flre, and everybody will fall back into the same condition, negligent as before. It is - there, in this very negligent state of the public raind. that we must look for the real cause of these disasters. People don't seem to think that a price must necessarily be paid for the general indifference of the public to the unnecessary and crim¬ inal dangers it runs in its daily affairs. Everybody is very jolly until the bill is presented, then arises the grumbling and tbe outcry. Fortunately, a miracle is always working for the fool. Overcrowding into elevators, street-cars, elevated roads, ferryboats and excursion boats is a performance that goes on day by day. The slightest accident to machinery, the smallest error of judgment on the part of operatives, the spilling of a lamp, the crossing of an electric wire—and a disaster like that of the "Slocum" occurs. There is hardly a ferryboat that leaves the New York slips to-day during the crush hours that is not liable to an appalling disaster. The same is true of the elevated roads; a harmless spark, a fool outcry, is enough to start a panic. This perpetual feverish condition of over¬ crowding that seems to have become the natural state of life in New York must finally result in a recognition of certain special necessities in construction and the management of our surroundings. Our tenement-houses, onr factories, schools, ferryboats and so forth, must ultimaTely be built fireproof, and this mainly on account of the extra dangers that arise from crowding in the first place and then from overcrowding. I THE RECORD AND GUIDE sympathizes with Commissioner McAdoo in his desire to secure a new site for Police Headquarters more nearly in the center of Manhattan Borough. Tbe site on Eighth Avenue, between Fifty-sixth and Fifty- seventh Streets, would be an excellent one and could be ac¬ quired by the city at a price which need not be excessive. It is very much more important that the headquarters should be situated near the center of Manhattan and The Bronx than that it should be situated near the center of the whole city, for Brooklyn, Queens and Richmond are administered for police pur¬ poses almost independently, while Manhattan and The Bronx are for the same purposes mutually united. Moreover, the Centre Market site is in a poor neighborhood, and is wholly in¬ appropriate for the ornate building w.hich it is proposed to erect upon it. While it is by no means desirable to place the new headquarters in an expensive location, such as the one formerly proposed on Long Acre Square, it will make for both the dignity and the efficiency of the Police Department to give it a fairly conspicuous habitation in a convenient and comely neighborhood. THE latest reported date for the opening of the subway is in September, and it is very much to be hoped that the opening will not be postponed later than October 1st. It is about that date which marks the increase of the fall trafiic. and tho consequent additional inconvenience to which are put the patrons of the surface and the elevated roads. Hence it is extremely desirable that the opening should not be delayed until the effect of this additional overcrowding is already severely felt. The amount of traffic which the subway will immediately develop, will be watched with the utmost interest. Good engineers have predicted that more than 150,000,000 pas¬ sengers will be carried during the first year, and that probably 200,000,000 passengers would be carried within five years, a traffice which could be handled only under conditions of dis¬ comfort very similar to those which now exist on the elevated roads. It will also he extremely interesting to trace just wiere this traffic will come from—how far it will be drawn from the