Real  Estate   Record





AND BUILDERS' GUIDE.





Vol. XXV.





NEW YORK, SATURDAY, JANUARY 3, 1880.





No. 616





Published Weekly by

C^e %ml Estate ^etartr %^satmixan,

TERMS.
ONE YEAR, in advance___SIO.OO.

Communications should be addressed to

C.   W.   S^VEKT,
Nos. 135 AND 137 Broadway





THE BUSINESS OUTLOOK FOR 1880.
The year which commenced yesterday promises
to be the most prosperous ever seen in the history
of this country. Active as business has been dur¬
ing the past year, greater activity, higher prices
and a better feeling may be reasonably expected
during the year we have just entered upon. All
the money in the country will be eagerly demanded
for [extending old enterprises and commencing
new. The aggregate rate of wages will xDrobably
be ten per cent, higher in 1880 than it was in 1879,
and this means that the spending class—those who
receive wages and salaries—will iDurchase far more
than they have done in any year since 1871. The
evidence of this has already been shown in the
demand for prints and domestic goods among the
people at large. Those who arc producing neces-
Bary clothing for the mass of the community can¬
not begin to supply the demand made upon them.
Mills are running night and day; the wages of
operatives are rising, but still the demand out¬
strips the supply. In many branches of trade
there is an actual dearth of employees. The cheap¬
est labor, that of girls and women, is already
Bcarce, and factory operatives command better
prices than in any year since 1870.

There is only one possible drawback to the
transacting of a very large business, and that is the
failure of the crops next summer. A well-known
journalist, who occasionally makes predictions
respecting future events, has given it aa his
opinion that a failure of the. crops in this country
is now in order. Like Pharoah's dream, this
modern Joseph holds that the many years of
plenty, in the way of crops, will be followed, if not
by seven years, certainly one or two years of famine
or, at least, of short crops. He argues that in the
calculation of chances the Uniced States cannot
expect to have a superabundant crop every year
As a matter of fact, since the beginning of the civil
war we have had no very bad year, so far as the
fruits of the earth were concerned. True, in cer¬
tain localities corn was deficient, and in certain
others winter Avheat was short, but, taking one
year with another, allour crops of every kind have
been higher than an average, while in some years,
as in the last two, Nature has been most bountiful
ito us. We may have short crops this year, but the
isuperabundance of the last two years wiU tide us
,over even that, and the enhanced prices will, in a
measure, make up for the deficient quantity, so
jthat even the calamity of a failure will not mate¬
rially retard the prosperity of the country for the
.coming year. But certainly up to May there can
;be no interruption to the business of the country
from this cause.

Wha.t, then, may we naturally expect from the
first of January to the thirtieth of May ? We will
try and particularize.

First, as business will be active in every depart¬
ment of trade, the price of money will be high. All
.during December the extraordinary phenomenon
.occurred of excli^'nges from all the leading cities





of the Union being against New York. Why this
was so was the "puzzle of financiers. By some it
was urged that the money was used to hold up the
price of grain and cotton in blocks, and there were
various other explanations given. But is not the
real explanation one which we pointed out some
time since that business is active in every part o^
the country, and money, therefore, is in great de.
mand everywhere. The legal rate of interest here¬
after in this State will be six per cent,, but the real
rate of interest, we suspect, will be much higher
than seven per cent. This will act as a check to
wild speculation in stock f, and general business
but will not stop it by any means.

Second, during the coming spring it will be
found that our imports are largely increasing, and
our exports materially, from a relatively point of
view, decreasing. The immense balance of trade
in our .favor, which we had for the last two years,
cannot continue another, year. Abroad, they are
producing, cheaper ; at home, we are demanding
higher prices. This raeans that the drain of gold
to this country cannot much longer continue.
There will probably be a reverse movement, and
gold will find its way abroad. Nor should this
create any uneasiness. As a nation, we are pro¬
ducing eighty to ninety millions of gold and silver
per annum. It is one of our products, one of the
things we should export, for articles of immediate
consumptive value. We confidently look forward,
therefore, to an immense increase in our importa¬
tions, and the difference will be made up by some
gold being shipped from our Atlantic ports,
- Third, we expect to see an excitement in several
departments of trade. The mining fever is already
under way. Immense sums of money are being
invested all over the country in properties which
will be marketed during the present year. The
San.Francisco stock market languishes for want of
a new bonanza on the Comstock Lode. Until one
is struck, matters will be no better out there. ■
But here at the East, we have Leadville, the Black
Hills and other regions, and the dividends paid
for the mines on this market exceed, by 'several
millions, those which pay dividends in San Fran¬
cisco, Then there will be stock bubbles blown, for
the immense sums of currency in the way of gold
and silver will, in some Way, be utilized during the
present year, resulting in higher prices and a spec¬
ulative feeling in all departments of trade, but
more especially in the stock market.

Fourth, our railroads will soon begin to show
splendid returns, as compared with those of last
year. Low prices obtained up to the fall of 1879.
The railroads were fighting for what business there
was; but competition has now ceased and the
rates have gradually advanced, while an immense
business is being transacted. The railroads report
large gains—so large-as to seem phenomenal, and
the leading stocks will be marked up tc much high¬
er figures in the immediate future than are obtain¬
ed on this second day of January, But the fever
will spread to all departments of business, to gen¬
eral merchandise, keeping the rates of money high
and tempting men who have any means to invest.
This will be a hopeful year, a confident year. Great
numbers of new enterprises will be started, and
capital will be employed to the utmost.

Emigration will largely increase this year.   Al¬
ready the news of the prosperity of this country
has resounded throughout the world, and we must
' expect to see a movement of emigrants from





Europe to the United States larger in volume than
any two years since 1873.

Sixth, the West will receive an immense de¬
velopment. In addition to the large outlays in
mineral lands, agricultural lands located near rail¬
ways are being rapidly taken up and the popula¬
tion west of the Missouri and northwest of the
Mississippi will increase very greatly. The price
of land east of the Sierras and west of the Mississippi
will be worth an average of fifteen to twenty-five
per cent, more by the close of this year. This will
in itself create a buoyantlfeeling and be the means
of giving additional'trade to Eastern manufactur¬
ers. The new rich in the West will be the mine
sellers and the investors in low priced agricultural
lands.

Seventh,* railroad building, which came to a total
stop after 1873, has beenresumed with vigor during
the past year and will be continued with great assi¬
duity during the coming year. Over twelve thousand
miles of roads are already under way and by the close
of this year probably thirty thousand miles of road
will be in process of construction. Nor will this
rebuilding of new roads be confined to the West.
The East will not only want its old roads repaired
but new connections are being formed and new
combinations are under M'ay which will involve the
purchase and laying of a great deal of railroad iron.
Our iron industry therefore will revive with an
assurance of continuance for several years to
come, and, all things considered, the iron industry
is the basis of all others. There is no prosperity
•without a demand for the material from which tools
are made.

We might continue this list, but what appeals
more strongly to us is the probable effect of all
this abounding prosperity upon realty in and near
the city of New York. We think that those who
have been suffering so long from depreciated prices,
who have premises and lands heavily mortgaged,
and who submitted to great sacrifices during the
past few years, will, before the first of January,
1881, be able to get out not only without- loss but
in many cases with great profit. There has been a
good deal of quiet buying by people who see what
is coming and prices will certainly loom up mag¬
nificently. We expect to see more real estate
transfers during the present year then in any
three years since 1S73. The transactions will be
larger, more persons will be involved and more
money made. We think all who take The Recoed
and profit by its vaticinations will havs a prosperous
and therefore a Happy New Year.





THE FUTURE OF NEW YORK.

Under this heading Mr. Frederick Law Olmstead
contributes au interesting paper to a recent num¬
ber of the Tnhune. We won't say that it contains
anything new, for it seems as though Mr. Olmstead
must have been a studious reader of The Recoep
for the past six months. The following are the
concluding remarks of Mr. Olmstead's paper, and
we are happy to quote them as endorsing what has
been already put forth in this paper in many difr
ferent ways:

There is now a marked tendency in most large
and thriving towns in two opposite directions--one
to concentration for business and social purposes,
the other to dispersion for domestic purposes. The
first leads toward more compact and higher build¬
ing in business quarters, the other toward broader,
lower and more open building in residence quarters.
The old-fashioned "country house " of city people