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EAL Estate Record
AND BUILDERS' GUIDE.
Vol. XXVIII
NEW YOliK, SATDIIDAY. JULY 16, 1881
»i96
Published Weekly by The
Real Estate Record Association
TERMS:
UiVE YEAR, iu advance.....$6.00
Communications should be addressed to
C. W. SWEET, 137 Broadway.
J. T. LINDSEY, Business Manager.
CONDITION OF THE STOCK MARKET.
The "boom" in the stock market, which
waa expected after the 1st of July, has not
as yet made its appearance, and the current
impression of the street is that it has been
postponed indefinitely.
Tlie argument has been that the Govern¬
ment would pay out in interest and f oi' called
bonds between July 1 and August 13 some¬
thing hm than |100,000,000. This would
niiike money abundant and oheap, and tlie
liulls argued that this fi-eali oapltal would
lind its way into current iuvestmouta and
lirlng about imieh higher llguraa; tluifc if
gtivomnientB wore only woi'lih iji| peroeiUi,
Mlooks wliloh paid 0 per Qont, oaglifc to be
worfcli 130, while H per ooat. stooka elioukl
be ol leap at 1(10,
Upon thl8 theory thovy were llboi-al puy-
ohasoaoE gtooks, and when tho Isfc of July
(jftme It really looked as le the market was
about to advaiioe. But several thlngH that
fllnoQ oeourred have olmnged the outlook.
Tn the fli-flfc plao© there was the attempted
nraasslnatlon of the Preeklent, Tills Avas a
rude shook to the market, whleh, however,
bore the blow very well indeed, Then eamo
the war among tho railways, the outting of
passenger and freight rates, As soon as this
beoarae known it alarmed oonservative in¬
vestors, who began to think that large divi¬
dends were not so certain on any of the
roads, The passing of the dividend on
Canada Southern and the 1 per cent, quar¬
terly dividend on Michigan Central was an¬
otlier severe blow to the market, for it showed
that on the trunk lines, the very gilt-edged
securities, the business had not been as good
as had been expected.
But back of these obvious circumstances
there are two factors which have operated
upon the market during the past six weeks
and are likely to affect it for several monttis
to come. One is the certainty that, com¬
pared with last year, there wiU be a deficient
wheat harvest. The most sanguine admit
a falling off of at least 35 per cent. In other
words there will be 135,000,000 bushels less
to export than there were last year. In
value this involves a sum greater than the
total gold import for last year. While a de¬
ficiency in the winter wheat was acknowl¬
edged, it was hoped that the spring wheat
would be an average one, but the floods that
have poured over the West and Northwest
at a critical time lead operators to fear the
very worst. If the Northwest crops are seri¬
ously short, a great many stock bubbles must
collapse. Undoubtedly this certainty of a
smaller crop is what has led to thie war
among the railways.
There is still another general reason which
is undoubtedly operating to depress prices,
not only in this country but in all countries;
and that is the temporary failure of the bi.
metallic conference to come to an agreement
for remonetizing silver all over the world.
Any addition to the currency of the world
advances quotations. The "boom"in prices
iji April and May was largely due to the be¬
lief tliat silver would be rehabilitated, tlie
world over, as a money metal. But this not
having been accomplished, theie has been
disappointment, and hence the London
Financier says :
This declining tendency was obsei'vablo yesterday
in nearly all the departmtmts, not only in American
and Canadian, but In Brltigh, Blexlcan and Austrian
railways. Koielgu Oovcrntneut!^, Hudson Bay, Otto•
luati Uttult, ludhui mliilug sliui'cs, aiul many others,
wore drooping.
It will bo remembered that it was the
puestige of,the Bland bill which chuuged tbe
eoui'se of prices in this countiw. When
Hllver waa demonetized, ahrlnkage of valuea
wiiH experleneed In all departments of buMl=
neMH, It In notable that tlie weakneHS in the
mai'ket here was Immediately developed
uiion the adjournment of the mouetai'y oou=
fei'enee.
But will there be any paiilo'(
Nothing more unlikely. The railroad
earnings for June show an Inoreaso of 30M
per gent, over Juno of the previous year,
Tl,i§ exoliangos In all the large olties show
an Inerease of about 44 per oent. The prlee
of labor Is rising, Immigration contlnueH
large, business aetlvity wag never greater,
people are not in debt, there has been no
abuse of the eredit system, and better than
all, the price of land is steadily rising, and
the new wealth from this source will amount
to a very large sum. Stock values are one
tiling, the actual prosperity of the country
quite another. While there has been a
check to any advance in stock values, there
does not seem to be any warrant for any
serious set back outside of the walls of the
Stock Exchange.
SUBURBAN RAPID TRANSIT.
To understand the situation thoroughly,
it should be understood that a company has
been organized to build a complete system
of rapid transit roads for the Twenty-third
and Twenty-fourth Wards. To supply the
wants of the entire district, present and pros¬
pective, three roads have been planned whicli
converge at the Second avenue, over which
a bridge is to be buUt. There is also to be a
connection made with the Metropolitan on
the West side, and with the Harlem, so as
to take advantage of the sunken track.
These routes were laid out first by tho en¬
gineer of the Central Park Commission.
When a rapid transit commission w^s sub¬
sequently appointed, it substantially en¬
dorsed their report. There being some dis¬
content, a second rapid transit commission
was appointed, which, after going over the
whole ground, endorsed the- plans of the
Park Commission engineers and their im¬
mediate predecessors. A compg,ny has been
organized to build the roads, and its officers
have been hard at work preparing plans,
publisliing maps and acquiring rights of
way, all of which require time.
But there is discontent among certain
property-holders in the annexed district.
They want a road up the Third avenue be¬
yond the Harlem River, so as to help certain
interests in the more populous parts of the
Twenty-third Ward. Mayor Grace has been
induced to appoint a third commission to
see what shall be done. With General Daniel
E. Sickles at its head, this body is now sit¬
ting to inquire into the wisdom of building
a road up the Tliird avenue. If the third
commission should endorse the plans of their
three predecessors, that would probably put
an end to the agitation. It is very desirable,
not only that the plans should be good, but
that tho work should be speedily undertaken.
The Brooklyn bridgo is nettdug completion,
and the North River tunnel is well under
way. It Is very desirable that a suburban
road should bo In operation before people ar©
teniiited to eroBs the rivers by Mystoms of
raiild transit, wlileli will reaeli tho dlstriets
outside of Brooklyn and Jeraey City. If the
Suburban Bapkl Transit Company will hurry
up their work, they might head oft' any op=
position company in tlie annexed dbtriet.
THE ADVANCE IN THE PRICE OP
BUILDING MATERIAL.
The railroads have had tho advantage of
oheap Iron for the past three years and all
our industries have had no reason to com^
plain of the cost of material. With a ram.
pant stock market, there has been no specu-
tation up to this time or until very recently,
in any of the leading products of the
country. Cotton, corn and wheat have
ruled low and when labor was first being
employed it did not demand high figures.
But it was evident to all business men Ihat
the plethora of money would find its way at
lengtli into general merchandise and there
is every evidence now of a steady enhance¬
ment in values, especially in manufactured
articles, due to the increased cost of labor.
On June llth the Real Estate Record
gave the following advice to builders. "It
would, we judge, be wise to take large con¬
tracts ahead for building material at their
present rates. There is every prospect of an
enhancement in values during the coming
fall, for while consumption is enormous,
supplies are light and as the price of labor
is rising in every department of trade, there
is a fear of a large enhancement of values."
Those who heeded that warning have
reason to congratulate themselves. Take
the article of brick. In our market reports
we have shown over and over again the
dangerous condition of the brick market for
buyers. The heavy rains and other causes
have prevented the usual work in brick
yards and this occurring in connection with
an extraordinary demaud for building, has
put the buyers of brick entirely at the mercy
of those who sell them. This hint ought to be
sufficient for all who are under obligations