Decembers—9, 1883





The Record and Guide.





103





THE RECORD AND GUIDE.





191  Broad way, N. Y.





DECEMBER 2—9, 1883.





PRICE OF RECORD AND GUIDE.
Per Anmim,             _             .             .             -

With Supplement,           -            »             .            .

Record and Guide, Single Copy,
With Supplement,           -            -            -             .





$5.0C
6.00
10 cents.
15   "





reasonable figure, the production may be estimated to be in 1890,
167,500 tons, and in 1900, 335,000 tons.





4.—COPPER.





Inc. in 10
years.
5,C00
1-J,000





Inc.
per ct.

63

93







Inc. in 10




Inc.





years.
3,081,00)
21,400,000




per ct.
174
370





The Statistics ofthe Industrial Future.

It is a very common practice of newspaper statisticians to publish
flgures showing tlie probable future population of tliis and other
countries, based on the past ratio of increase.; but hitherto little
attention has been given to the probable future of our great
industries. It is, of course, a somewhat dangerous field,
for production is far more variable from one decide to another
than is the increase in population. Yet, perhaps, it may not be
unprofitable to attempt a forecast of the great industrial interests
of the United States, based upon the progress made in ihe past.

In The Recced and Guide of November llth tables were pub¬
lished showing the steady growth of all our productive industries.
The figures were given of the annual production of cotton, the
cereals, coal, pig iron, lead, copper, quicksilver ah.d petroleum,
together with gold and silver. Of course, there were many and
great fluctuations, but the increase, counted by decades, was sur¬
prisingly large. For instance, in 1852, we mined 5,725,000 tons of
anthracite coal, in 1881, 30,262,000 tons. In 1852 we produced
541,000 tons of pig iron ; in 1881 4,144,000. Of petroleum, we pro¬
duced 3,000 barrels in 1859; in 1881 27,264,000; 1,000 tons of
copper in 1852 had swollen to 31,000 in 1881 ; in 1834-5 we pro¬
duced 1,254,338 bales of cotton, the crop of the present year may
run beyond 7,000,000 bales, and in no event can it fall much short
of that large figure. In 1840 we produced 84,821,065 bushels
of wheat; in 1883 the yield estimated is 520,000,000 bushels of
wheat. The corn product in 1840 was 377,492,388 bushels, and
forty years later 1,717,434,543. The increase in other cereals was
also very large.

These figures are really startling, and would give point to the
most resplendent Fourth of July oration. Indeed, Americans are
justified in their extravagant utterances as to the splendid future of
their country.

In the following we give the production for every tenth year,
and venture to estimate, taking the past ratio, what the increase
ought to be in 1890 and 1900 :

I.—ANTHRACITE COAL.





Year.                                 Tons.           Year.                  Tons.

1860 .....................    8,000            ]8'0..........13,00

1870..................... 13,000            1S80...........25,000

The production of copper has increased in a comparatively equal
ratio since 1852, the average increase being about 1,000 tons per
annum ; though in recent years, notably from 1880 to 1881, there
was an increase in one year alone of 6,000 tons. Taking, however,
the average increase of the past twenty years as a criterion, the
production of copper may be estimated as follows : In 1890, 44,250
tons, and 1900, 78,322.

5.—PETROLEUM.

Year.                Bbls.               Year.                         Bbl.s.

18G0-1........2,114,000            1870-1............    5,795,000

1870-1........ 5,795,000            1880-1............ 27,204,000

The production of petroleum has steadily increased, having been
2,114,000 barrels in 1861, and 27,264,000 in 1881, showing an increase
of about 1,189 per cent, in twenty years, being an average of 59 per
cent, per annum. Should the production of this oil increase in the
same ratio, it would reach the following figures : 1890, 172,035,840
bbls., and in 1900, 332,893,440. A'prospcctive increase such as this
would probably be enough to abolish every vestige of the " bulls'
who have for some time been in the market. But the future pro¬
duction of this mineral oil is wholly a matter of conjecture. The
news may come any time that the oil region has " petered" out.
While the production has steadily increased for the i^ast twenty-
two years, still there is no history behind it to warrant even a guess
as to the future supply. Should, however, the production increase
only a quarter as fast as during the last decade, that is, 92.50 per
cent., the figures would be 52,483,200 barrels in 1890, and 101,030,160
in 1900.

C—GOLD.





1800.'... .. $40,000,000

Year.

1870....".. $.'50,000,000





Year.

1870............ 850,000,000

Year.
1880.......





Inc. in 10      Inc.

years,   s. per ct.
S4,000,000           8

Dec. inlO      Dec.
years.       per ct.
§10,478,000         49





Year.                    Tons.

1800...........  9,eo7,ono

1870............ 17,820,000





Year.                   Tons.

1870........... 17,820,000

1880.........24,813,000







Inc. in 10




Inc.





years.
8,013,000
7,023,000




per ct.
81
39





.... $3.3.532,000

Gold has been a decreasing production since 1854, when it was
$60,000,000, In] 1881 it had declined to $31,870,000, It is, how¬
ever, reasonable to suppose that henceforth our production of gold
may largely increase. Within the last six years our railway system
has been extended to every important mining region in the Rocky
and Sierra Nevada Mountains, and we are likely at any time to open
up bonanzas equal to those several times discovered on the Com¬
stock Ledge. We now have the experienced miners, the trained
experts, and the organized capital, ready to utilize the labors of the
army of prospectors who now swarm over all the mineral regions
where gold or silver is likely to be found. Thus, any year the pro¬
duction of gold may double, so that reliable computation is hardly
possible.





1860-1........$-2,000,000

1870-1........22,100.000





7.—SILVER.





1870-1.....■..$23,100,003

18S0-1........  45,078,000





Inc. in 10

years.

$20,100,000

22,978,000





Ine.

per ct.

1.005

103





The production of this mineral has increased in variable propor¬
tion ; for example, in 1881 it rose to 80,262,000 tons, being an
increase of 5,419,000 in one year, which is equal to an annual
increment of 31 per cent. In this ratio, the production in 1900
would be 123,966,570 tons, a figure which even the most sanguine
would scarcely dare to predict. Taking the average increase during
the past two decades, the figure in 1890 will be 39,748,800 tons,
and in 1900, 63,598,080.

3.—PIG IRON.

Inc. in 10 Inc. per
year.'^.
875,000

2,139,000

It is impossible to estimate with any degree of accuracy the
figure at which this mineral will stand, owing to the possibility of
fiscal rearrangements which may effect a revolution in this article
during the next generation, but should the proportionate increase
be equal to the previous years, the production may be estirnated as
follows : In 1890, 8,283,600 tons; in 1900, 17,892,576. Should the
production only increase half as quickly as during the last ten
years, the figures would stand: In 1890, 6,251,050, and in 1900
10,189,211 tons.

3.—LEAD.





Tons.

1800............     821,00J

1870............ ],09b,0,/0





Tons.

1870............ 1,090,(00

1880............3,835,000





cent.

106

126





Year.                             Tons.

1800.....................14,000

1870...................... 16,000





Year.                  Tons.

1870............ 16.000

1880............ 95,'00







:c. in 10




Inc.





years.
2,000
79,000




perct

14

493





The production of silver from 1861 to 1871 increased in an
unparalelled degree, having been ten times greater in 1871 than in
1861, The increase from 1871-81 is probably a more reasonable
basis on which to estimate the future figures, and should tiie pro¬
duction increase during the next two decades but half^as quickly
as during the last ten years, that is 51,50 yier cent, during each
decade, it will reach the following value : In 1890, $68,293,170, and
in 1900, $91,508,340.

8.—WHEAT.





Bushels.

1850..........100.164,250

1860...........170,170,0^7

1870...........215,884,700

18S0............498,519.803





Inc. ill to

ye.irs.
Bushels,
15,343.191
70,011.771
05.708,673
202,005,103





Increase
per cent,
decim'ly.
18
09
38
IU





It will be noticed that the production of this mineral has
increased very rapidly since 1870, having been almost stationary
from 1852 until that year. The increase from 1860 to 1880 has been
578 per cent,, which, if continued in the same ratio, would raise
the production in 1900 to 644,100 tons, which is undoubtedly far
beyond the mark. The production during recent years has
increased at the rate of 7,350 tons per annum, and, taking this paore





Bushels.

1840..........84,821,'65

1850...........100,164,250

1860.........170,176.027

1870...........2.35,884,700

It will be observed that the ratio of increase in this cereal has
been variable during the last four decades, rising from 18 to 69 per
cent., and from 38 to 111 per cent,, decennially. This is account¬
able principally by the good and bad croi^s alternately. There can
be little doubt that the production will increase very largely in the
future, and presuming that our agricultural population will advance
as in the past, we may fairly assume that the medium ratio between
the two last decades may be taken as the prospective increase during
the next twenty years, namely, 74,50 (38-Mll-:-2=74,50), which
would give us the following figures: In 1890, 869,969,519 bushels,
and in 1900,1,518,096,860.

9.—CORN.





Bushels.

1849..........   3"7,492,388

1850..........   591,630.564

1860..........   827,094,527

1870..........1,094,955,000





Bushels.

1850.......   591,630,504

1860........   827,094,527

1870........1,094,255,000

1880........1,717,434,543





In", in 10     Increase

years.       percent.

Bushels, decenni'ly.

214,138,176            56

225,463,903            33

267,1.60,473            32

023,179,543            56





We have calculated this as well as the previous cereal from 1840
upwards, and it wiU be observed that the rate of increase is the
same in the ten years following both 1840 and 1870, and in those
subsequent to 1850 and 1860 nearly equal. Taking the mean per¬
centage of the last twenty years, namely, 44 per cent,, as tbe ratio