FApril 10, 1886





The   Record  and  Guide.





449





THE   RECORD   AND   GUIDE,

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Vol. XXXVII.





APRIL 10, 1886.





No. 943.





Let the bears rejoice. Mr. Samuel Benner sends us an article,
which we print elsewhere, predicting lower prices for stocks and
grain. He can see no encouragement for the bulls until towards
the close of 1888, when the periodic recurrence of very high
prices becomes due; to be followed by a coUapise and panic in 1889.
This, it will be remembered, is the prediction made in Mr. Benner's
remarkable work, which was first published in 1875 and corrected
and reissued in another edition in 1884. This " plain Ohio farmer,"
as he calls himself, must be credited with having forecasted the
iron, stock, corn and pork markets with very remarkable accuracy.
At the close of last year Mr. Benner insisted, in a published inter¬
view, that this spring would disappoint the hopes of the bulls in
stocks, and that the upward movement of last fall was simply a
reaction against the previous depression. And certainly the course
of that market since the beginning of this year has justified his

forecast.

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In his contribution to our columns to day, Mr. Benner places
himself on record on several important matters. He predicts
good crops, low prices and depressed business, and he gives his
reasons for so believing. In his published work, this authority
declares that the price of iron is the key to all other prices. When
industry revives there is a demand for tools, and hence iron and
the other metals are called for to supply the weapons with which
industry fights its battles. But in this communication to The
Record and Guide Mr. Benner recognizes certain general causes
as affecting values, such as foreign wars, tariffs, the coinage of sil¬
ver, good and bad crops and the like. It is curious to note that
this writer does not seem to recognize the potent influence in prices
caused by measuring values in one metal rather than in two. The
most practical economists of the age attribute the world-wide
distress in business circles to the demonetization of silver by the
commercial nations.





calls attention to a state of things which has been a scandal to our
government for many long years. Under the system which has
obtained the merchant could appeal from a collector's decision to
the Treasury Department. Failing to get redress there he had to
resort to the United States courts, but the result was litigation,
waste of time andfmoney, and a'practical denial of justice. A set
of legal harpies made fat fees out of the litigation which was inev¬
itable under the working of our complicated and obscure tariff
enactments. Indeed, there is every reason to believe that our
mixed and muddled tariff machinery has been manipulated
in the interests of the lawyers and brokers, who live on their exac¬
tions upon importers of foreign goods. Secretary Manning has
explained over and over again to the proper committees of the
Senate and House how preposterous, how costly and how wasteful
is the whole system of transacting business at our Custom House ;
but some obstructive agency is at work to prevent all efforts at
reform or any simplification of Custom House machinery that
would relieve our merchants from the delays ani costs of the pres¬
ent system.

----------------0----------------

Mr. J. S. Moore, who has written so copiously during the past
fifteen years in the World, Times and Evening Post on the necessity
of a reformation of our tariff enactments, could no doubt throw
a world of light on this important matter. The situation he occu¬
pies is peculiar. He holds some mysterious position in the Custom
House and retains it through all kinds of administrations. "When
the tariff feeling was strongest in the Republican party he was an
avowed free trader and wrote vigorous attacks upon the tariff in
the World and other Democratic papers, yet 'he was never inter¬
fered with in the Custom House. When Congress is in session Mr.
Moore spends most of his time in Washington conferring with the
committees which have the revision of the tariff in charge. There
ienota point in connectioa with the tariff legislation for the last
twenty years that he cannot explain. It has been charged against
him that he has used his position to help certain interests likely to
be affected by tariff changes, yet all who know Mr. Moore are
impressed with his candor and good faith. Were he disposed to do
so he could doubtless tell to whom the country is indebted for the
muddled condition of our tariff machinery.





Mr. Benner declares that nothing occurred in 1884 or 1885 to per¬
manently change the drift towards lower prices. In this he is
probably correct, keeping in view only international relations. The
continued upholding of the gold measure of values will indisputa¬
bly keep on depressing prices and adding to the misery of mankind,
but the United States measurably escapes from this baleful contrac¬
tion by its continued coinage of the silver dollar. Then our invest¬
ing class evidently regarded the railway settlement of last summer
asj^making a new departure, so far as investments in securities were
concerned. There has been very confident buying of bonds and
stocks, because of the settlement of railroad wars and the steady
growth of our population and business. But whether this view is
correct or not it does not detract from the value of Mr. Benner's
forecasts of the future of business. All who are interested in the
tendencies of the various markets will eagerly read the views of so
sagacious an observer as Mr. Samuel Benner.





The outlook for securities is more hopeful than it has been since
the beginning of the year. The coal people have come to an under¬
standing, the presidents of the trunk lines have renewed and con¬
firmed their former treaties of peace, the end of the trans-conti¬
nental war is in sight, and the earnings of April will show a fair
advance over the returns of the previous three months. Indeed,
the March earnings of the trunk lines, so far as published, were an
agreeable surprise. Accidents excepted, there ought to be a better
feeling in Wall sti eet than for some time past. The only diflficulty
in sight is the labor tt ouble in the Southwest, which Mr. Gould can
settle now just as easily as at any time during the past month.. It
aU depends on him. The building movement continues'phenome¬
nally active in all the centres of population. We, have ceased to
export gold, for the present at least, and there is a promise that
our exportations of grain and cotton wiU be much, larger than they
have been so far this year. It looks as though buyers rather than
sellers will make the most money in the not distant future.





There is, of course, no hope of any effective tariff legislation
during this session of Congress. The Democrats know this very
well. The business interests affected are so enormous that when
the friends of any existing tariff are united they can raise money
enough to defeat any measure that attempts to cover the whole
field. What could be done would be to attack the tariff in detail. One
measure should look to an enlargement of the free list. Were it
proposed to admit wool, lumber, salt, coal, all the metals save iron,
ship-building materials and the like free of duty, it would go
through Senate and House by overwhelming majorities, for the
manufacturers themselves are very desirous of being able to pur¬
chase in the markets of the world raw materials of all kinds at the
cheapest rates. This would be a great point gained. Then a bill
simplifying the machinery of our Custom House, substituting spe¬
cific for ad valorem duties and ridding our tariff laws of all ambi¬
guity would also doubtless pass, though it would be bitterly fought
by the obscure but powerful ring of legal harpies who now reap
such a fat harvest from the present disgraceful confusion of the
law as administered in the Custom House.





Mr. Abram S. Hewitt's bill to refer disputes between importers
fp^ th^ gpyerpjuept to 9. sp^ial ^t»upal for prompt g^t^^n^





It would be a misfortune if, after the expenditure of so much
time and thought, both bills affecting Land Transfer Reform should
be dropped. There is, however, some consolation to be obtained from
the fact, as expressed by the committee of the Bar Association, a full
report of which appears in another column of The Record, that
"either of these systems is an improvement on the present deplorable
condition of land registration in this city." Upon one point, at least,
the meeting was unanimous, and that was in its desire to check the
abuses in the search department of the County Clerk's office, and
which will become a subject of further investigation. But if law¬
yers are so widely divided upon the best manner of effecting reform
in land transfers, how nauch more difficult it is for laymen to devise
a remedy that will be acceptable to the great majority of property
owners. Still, we are hopeful that one or other of the biUs may
become law, and as either will be an improvement on the present
system an advantage wiU be gained that may lead to more decided
improvement in the future. There has probably been no subject
of equal importance to-which more thorough attention, greater
ability, or a more zealous desire for the public good have been given,
than by.the gentlemen composing the Board of Land Transfer
Commissioners. It would seem to be desirable, therefore, in the
event of both bfils failing to become a law, to devise—if it can be
done—some compromise whereby the best elements in each may be
harmonized. But in no respect is legislation more conservative
than in regard to property.

'------—•---------

Congress is very dilatory in acting upon the reports which  call

for %l^e apiMTopriatiipii ^ ?a<>pey ^1^^^ 9V^ f^^'C'WBi&'t v^ a, etf^te o|