January





Record   and   Guide.





31





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Vol. XLVII.





JANUARY  10. 1891.





NO. 1,191





Anynewf^aper which, may desire to reprint Mr. Benner\s predic¬
tions may do so, if proper credit for the same is given to The
Record and Guide.

Extra copies of the Supplement containing Samuel Benner's pre¬
dictions, will be supplied, on application, at the office of publica¬
tion, No. 191 Broadway, at 5 cents apiece.

WE publish this week, for the fourth consecutive year, the
prophecies of Samuel Benner for the coming twelve
tnonths. The success and general reliability of Mr. Benner's pre¬
dictions in the past are well known to our readers. It will be seen
that he takes a hopeful view of the immediate future, and from
all present prospects he may well do so. The stock market has
been very strong during the past week. The trouble which begun
in London has ended there with another reduction of the
Bank of England's rate of discount. Operators have begun
to wonder.what they were all afraid of in the beginning;
they look around for financial corpses and find everybody alive
and kicking. In other words, confidence has been very
well restored ; and good bonds and stocks are in demand. The
large institutions which took advantage of the late panic to buy
securities, finding in that more profit than in lending their money.
will soon begin to realize, and it can scarcely be doubted that all
the 5 per cent loans which are needed will soon be forthcoming.
We should advise our readers to be very cautious about borrowing
money at a higher rate than 5 per cent. A few weeks delay will
remove any stringency in the bond and mortgage market, eo that
builders will be able to command all the money they need.





THE stock market in London has strengthened up with the com¬
ing of the new year, even as has the market in this city.
Two weeks ago the financial writers in the former city were pre¬
dicting a long continuance of the Bank of England's 5 per cent
rate of discount. Now, owing to the heavy returns from the
interior, the collection of taxes and other causes, tbe bai:k has
found itself strong enough to reduce the rate. The principal
menace to tbe security market in Londou is, according to the best
iuforraed, the large amount of scrip held by underwriting syndicates.
Most of the company's fioating institutions are burdened with
obligations, which the state of the market has not allowed them
to sell. From March to August of the past year something like
§500,000,000 worth of securities were brought out, and to some
extent placed on the London market. During the remaining five
months of the year only about $160,000,000 were issued, and even
these with less success than attended the introduction of the
$500,000,000 in the previous five months. As the British public
cannot absorb much more thau §500,000,000 worth in one year,
and as 1890, taken all in all, has not been favorable
for big floating schemes, it will be seen that the large
underwriting companies must have their hands pretty well filled.
Nevertheless, the tremendous resources of British investors may be
trusted to absorb whatever surplusage there is in comparatively
short order. Prices on tbe Paris Bourse have been, on the
whole, strong, although there has been some abstention by buyers,
owing to the pending issue of the new loan by the French Govern¬
ment, The new tariff will be almost prohibitive in many respects.
The question of raw material has been the bone of contention.
The agricultural party have supported the protective
or prohibitive duties on manufactures and expect in
return a close market for their own products. If they do not get
it, their recognized strength in tLe Chamber tvill compromise the
w'hole bill. Berlin, like London, bas been suffering from a lot of
wild-cat securities, many of which still remain to be weeded out,
and the Bourse consequently remains in a depressed state.
Operators are relying just now on the favorable prospects for a
continuance of peace throughout the year of 1891 to recover from
their difficulties aud put financial affairs on a safer footing. Neither
is Vienna iu a very happy state.    The depressed situation is in a





large measure due to the uncertainty as to the course of the price
of silver, affected by what is going on in this country, and from
the lack of resolution on the part of tbe finance ministers, who
either have not tbe courage to come forward with a bill returning
to cash payments, or cannot agree as to the means to be used ftir
realizing this plaui





THE Senate will come to a vote on tbe proposals of its Finance
Committee on Wednesday next. Tlie feeling in favor of a
free coinage provision is said to he very strong, and Wall etreethas
taken alarm at the threat. Senator Shearman's earnest protest
against what may be the dangerous effects of such an action hae
been generally approved, and the only cloud upon the fair horizon
of the January market is the impending legislation. We have
always been in favor of keeping silver on a parity with gold,
believing that both metals were necessary to the transaction of the
business of the world. We have regarded as ridiculous the
repeated prophecies of disaster which mono-metallists declared
would flow from the restricted coinage of silver such as was author¬
ized by the Bland bill. This prophecy was made in the face of the
fact that we had made large accumulations of gold since the pas¬
sage of that measure. The Evening Post did Cleveland an
imkind turn in reprinting his preposterous letter, written
just after his election to the Presidency, to Congressman
Warner, in which he predicted ills which never came,
as if we were staring in the face a financial cataclysm.
When a mono-metallist's predictions turn out false, as
they generally do, he always postpones the catastrophe for a year
or two ; and when this interval has elapsed a further draught is
drawn ou time (a financial institution of enormous resources),
until one is bound to believe that the disaster resulting from the
restricted coinage of silver is as elusive as the millennium. Of
course, any trouble that does occur, no matter how directly it may
be traced to other causes, is always laid to this perpetual bug-a-boo.
Just as the Tribune found the cause of the late panic in the distrust
inspired by the late election, so the Evening Post found its remedy
in the repeal of the silver bill of the last session of Congress. Drop
a nickel in the slot and the same instrument always plays the same
tune. The addition of $4,500,000 of Treasury notes monthly based
on silver has not and will not depreciate the standard. Fi-ee coin¬
age, however, is quite another matter. The United States could
not stand the burden of free coinage ail alone. We should need
the assistance of other nations. The silver bill of last year measm-es
the extent to which a conservative bi-metallist cango towards tbe
rehabilitation of silver. Fortunately there does not seem to be
very much probability that the President or the House would pass
so extreme a proposal.





OOME of the newspapers have been making merry over the
^ message of Mayor Sargent, of New Haven, to the Common
Coimcil of that city. In addition to certain other recommenda¬
tions, Mr. Sargent advises that the gas, electric light, city railroads
and other natural monopohes of New Haven should be owned and
operated by the public authorities for the pubhc benefit. This our
wise newspaper friends have called pure Bellamylsm, the implica¬
tion being that Mayor Sargent is a hare-brained crank. What,
then, must they think of the resolution of the Chamber of Com¬
merce passed on Thursday last. The Chamber of i::ommerce is an
organization of the most conservative and responsible business
men of the city; and yet iu a resolution urging the Legislature to
pass a rapid transit bill they ask for a commission " who shall he
empowered to take all needed measures to provide for the citizens
of New York iv complete and efficient system of rapid transit, the
emoluments whereof shall largely accrue to the city's benefit, and
not to that of any private corporation." This means, if it
means anything, that the city should own any rapid
transit lines that will be built, and that if a private cor-
poratien have auy share in the returns, it should
be only such a share as would pay the operating expenses and a
fair interest on any capital invested in rolling stock. For, if the
emoluments are largely to accrue to the city, the city must he will¬
ing to assume any responsibility or risk there is in the undertaking,
which can best be done by constructing the road. The large share
of the emoluments could then be obtained by a lease which varied
with the amount of gross income. It is curious that people do not
see what a simple and effective method this of removing the diffi¬
culties of building tbe system, such as may arise from a large
initial expense, or (possibly) damages co property. The danger is^
as David H. King, Jr., has said, that the building of a comprehen¬
sive system, capable of meeting future as well as present require¬
ments, will cost so much, that in deference to the wishes of the
capitalists who will have to find the money, and will consequently
deserve to reap the reward, we shall be obliged to put up with
some comparatively cheap and inadequate system. The city itself
would be under no such necessity. It could afford to spend all the
money needed, which it could raise at 3 per cent, while any cor¬
poration would have to pay 5.   Such a sane idea never seems to