September 26, U91





Record   and   Guide.





367







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Vol. XLVIII





SEPTEMBER 26, 1891.





No. 1,228





IMPORTANT NOTICE.
The readers' of this journal are invited to visit the handsome
exhitntion of architects' drawings now mi view at the Hall of Toe,
Record and Guide, Nos. i4-16 Vesey street. Nearly 300 designs
from the boards of the leading architects in this city and Brooklyn
are displayed, offering an opportunity for the study of the best
reeent architectural work, that rarely occurs. The exhibition
is free.

AT the moment when the ingenious gentlemen who write Wall
Street matter for the daily newspapers had discovered that
there were no bears, but only reactionists, the public mind has been
unsettled by the White failure and the Missouri Pacific troublps,
and a bear party very soon showed its face. The result of its opera¬
tion is not great, except in Missouri Paciflc, the grangers especially
standing up strong under large selling pressure. Regarded from
their action under bad news, stocks so tasily discounting all that was
unfavorable, the impression is that their prices can only advance.
But that is not taking into account the whole situation, in
which there are not a few caution signals for the near future;
looking beyond that there is no occasion to be anything but bullish.
Just uow, however, we have to take into consideration the position
of those detestibilities known as Gould stocks, particularly
Missouri Pacific and Union Pacific. The intimation that Missouri
Paciflc would pass its dividend for once, because it was not
earned was bad enough, but the unot&cial hint that it may still pay
one under any circumstances is far worse. It is easy to see
that certain powerful parties are, notwithstanding their
protestations to ihe contrary, hindering lather than aid¬
ing the funding of the Union Pacific floating debt. We are at
the time wben the demands of the interior for funds are iikely to
be heaviest. The conflict in the Union Paciflc matter, if conflict
is inevitable, will be carried on by powerful forces on both sides,
actuated by motives which the public will not be aeked to share,
and in such an event it behooves smaller people to retire to a
convenient distance whence they can watch the fieht and escape
all danger of the blows. The rates for money are
hardening and scarcity in that direction would have
more influence toward lower prices than any cause we
have yet mentioned. A large amount of gold is on its way from
Europe to this point and this, with other importations, if speedily
made, may offset the crop-moving requirements. The public is so
thoroughly convinced of the certainty of ultimatelj- higher prices
for American securities that it will not readily part with even its
speculative holdings, and if it were not for the knowledge that
when the crowd sways it is as a unit, it might be confidently predicted
that the rhany on the bull side would more than outweigh the few,
however powerful individually, who are seeking to depress values.
Whatever the outcome and in face of all the facts obtainable, cau¬
tion is in every sense justifiable.





THE stock markets ai'e somewhat stronger all over Europe. In
England many of the trades which have been very dull this
year are now picking up, and impart something of a stimulus to
the whole industrial system. The large quantity of loanable funds
and the confldence of financiers ia shown by the refusal to raise the
rate of discount more than )^ per cent. Foreign trade, however,
still remains poor, both in England and France. The imports
continue very nearly at the level of the past two years ; but the
exports in the case of both countries are well below the same
figures. There is a good deal of talk concerning the new Russian
loan, and in Vienna and elsewhere the repoits relating thereto
are discredited. In London, however, it is generally believed
that a group of French financiers have undertaken
to carry through a loan of £20,000,000, the rate ot interest having





been fixed at 3 per cent. It is not likely that conversion is tbe
principal object of the prcseiit loan, for under such circumstances
.it would scarcelv be brought fcrward at the present time when,
owing to the more or less serious falling off in the cereal crops, and
to the fears of ooncequent internal disturbances, Russian ciedit has
been depreciated. It is rather more plausible that the Rnspian
government is compelled to borrow afresh in consequence of the
advances which it haR already been forced to make lo the districts
in which the rye crop has been a failure, and of the practical cer¬
tainty that the next Budget statement will exhibit a very material
deficiency. Authorities do not expect that if the loan bears inter¬
est at 3 per cent that tbe price of issue will be much more than 80,
If the issue is made, however, the lending ability of the French
people will probably be temporarily exhausted, for the Credit
Foncier is also about to issue 400 million francs of 3 per cent lottery
bonds. It is reasonably certain that borrowing of this kind would
not be done unless the managers of the institution were sure of
their ground.





THE announcement of a big sale of Washington Heights prop¬
erty, to be held early next month, again calls attention to the
present position of that district. Dturing the summer that part of
the city, like every otber, bas escaped anything like activity in real
estate; but, unlike sorae other parts, prices have remained very
firm. Pretty nearly all the owners on the hill are hold.ng their
property in the expectation of a rise; and their wishes are not
likely to be disappointed, Washington Heights is next in line of
improvement. Under the stimulus of the cable road some
building has been done already, but it is scattered and
tentative. So far as the hill is occupied at present, the
improvements thereon consist of handsome stone or
frame dwellings, erected before the city had stretched
above 59th sireet, beer gardens and picnic grounds which take
advantage of the wooded declivity on the Harlem side, and some
few houses in rows. These latter are mostly tenements, and
are built along the avenues which are more likely than the
others to be given over to business. Manifestly, however, almost
nothing has yet been done which indicates unequivocally the
way in which the classes of buildings will be distributed—what
streets and avenues will be given over to trade, what to flats,
what to dwellings of moderate dimensions and cost, and what to
a more expensive and luxuriuus dwellings. Hence arises the
uncertainty ot the future values of really for the whole region.
It is hazardous, if not impossible, to make any sure predictions
about matters of this sort. It was fully expected, for mstance,
that the Boulevard would be the handsomest thoroughfare on the
West Side; its width and the possibility of a park in its
middle lent plausibility to the assertion that if haudsome dwell¬
ings were to be built anywhere they would be built along the Boule¬
vard. Well, the West Side became a district of handsome
dwellings; but the Boulevard was painfully neglected, partly
because it was kept like a pig-pen, partly because it was wretchedly
paved during the heat of the West Side movement, partly because
the prices of property had become too high. Anticipations of a
glorious futu/e ruined it. Builders found that they could buy
more cheaply on West ESnd avenue and tbe side streets, and
this they did, beautifying the avenue after purchasing. Mean¬
while, but too late, prices on the Boulevard fell off, and it
now seems to be pretty well turned over to the builder of
flats—of good flats and of bad flats. Thus we may
see tte difficulty of predicting the future of any
particular section or thoroughfare. Ifc all rests with the specula¬
tive builder; aud he is not guided by the anticipations of other
people. Neither is he very much tempted by natural advantages of
location—that is, whea these natural advantages are very high-
priced. He would rather risk less money by buying cheaper prop¬
erty, even if it did not have a river view and an unexceptional
breeze. In other words, his object, like that of other men, is to
make the most money at the least risk; and what combinations of
buildings this object may bring about on Washington Hei.^hts no
one may yet know. Hence, as we said at the outset, there is a large
element of chance in any pm-chases made at the present time; but
the chance turns on the percentage, not on the fact of profit. Ifc is
true that prices on Washington Heights are probably double the
prices that were obtained on the West Side when that locality was
similarily undeveloped; but so certain is the future of this delight¬
ful part of ihe city that at the present time a buyer can buy almost
blindfold.





IT would also bedifiScult to predict when the movement on Wash¬
ington Heights will start in. That also depends on the specu¬
lative builders. To return to our former illustration—that of the
West bide—they kept aloof from that district long after the condi¬
tions were apparently very favorable for active building operations.
During the years 1879. 1880, 1881 and 1882 the proi.eriy-owners
were expecting that the speculative builders would begin to start in
west of  the park.   The elevated roads liad long been running and