Noveniber 29, 1902.
RECORD AND GUIDE.
801
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BiVirtED TO Rf\L EsTAJX . BuiLDIffc *;RClfrTEtmjRE ,KoTJSE1(OID DEeOE^ATIDlJ.
.BUsiiiEss Alio Themes OF GeiJer^ iHTtRfS].
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Pabtished every Satardag
Communications sliould be addressed to
C. W. SWEET, 14=16 Vesey Street, New YorK
3. T. LINDSEY, Business Manager Telephone, Cortlandt 3157
"Entered at lhe Posi 0.ffice at Neio Tork, N, Y.. as second-class matter."
Vol. i.AX.
NOVEMBER 29, 1902.
No. ISll.
T T must be the love of variety that makes Wall Street look for
-*â– the causes of prevailing conditions in any direction but the
right one. Not satisfied with the explanation directly uuder its
nose, it must have this or that other reason for the movements
of prices. It is so just now, because the Street is worrying itself
ahout what Congress is, as it thinks, going to do and has brought
itself haif to believe that the present downward trend of prices
is due to fears of tariff and tntst legislation. Consequently, the
coming President's message aud the meeting of Congress are at
the moment the great bear card. Prices themselves are going
down because, as has been the case for six weeks, money is in
great demand for industrial and commercial uses and those who
need it are supplying themselves by liquidating security invest¬
ments. _This state of things supervenes on and is aggravated by
the fact that it was preceded hy undue inflation of security
values. Congress or no Congress liquidation must continue un¬
til the pecuniary wants of merchants and manufaeturers have
been met and quotations have been sufficiently deflated to war¬
rant new buying by the conservative. There is this to he said,
however, the limitation of available funds have been made so
apparent and the warning has been given so far ahead that we
may see the close of the crisis sooner than was first expected.
The next week or two ought to close the incident and bring relief.
There may be and doubtless are those who have put off making
provision for their year-end requirements, but in the main it is
oniy reasonable to suppose that these requirements have al¬
ready or will soon be provided. It is significant that a 40-day
form of loan came Into the market last week which found favor,
and the inference is that what was wanted was an assurance of
funds into the opening of the New Year and not beyond. There
are abundant evidences that the leading lights in the business
world do not look for an abatement of present prosperous in¬
dustrial and commercial conditions, as to which railroad earn¬
ings tell the best of stories. Yesterday's market reflected these
views and hinted that the alarmists are not to have things all
their own way.
NOT only was the negative action of the Bank of England
in the matter of its discount rate something of a surprise
on this side of the Atlantic, but it was to very many a disap¬
pointment as well. It would have been an excellent card to sell
stocks on. As it is it shows that the great hanks on the other side
—like those on this—are dealing with a difficult situation with
much care and circumspection. The condition of the London
muuey marKec early in the week, especially in its relations with
the Continent, seemed to cail for an advance of the rate, but
iater not. A further increase of the Bank of England's rate is a
thing to be avoided if possible because it is already high, and
any augmentation would reveal a condition of strain. The effect
of this would be all the more serious because neither Great Brit¬
ain or Europe is dealing with an industrial and commercial boom
â– as we are, and if their funds are absorbed in a way that would
abnormally force up money market rates it can only he due to a
dangerous state of affairs. The trouble is that, although a good
many big loans have been floated during the past year, the in¬
vestor has kept obstinately away from the market. This leaves
the promotors and loan brokers with heavy loads to carry and
keeps away new business. Another unpleasant feature of the
situation is the heavy and apparently yet unfinished decline in
the price of silver, which threatens more or less demoralization
of the Asiatic trade. This is primarily due to tbe terms of the
Boxer indemnity payments insisted upon by the Powers, which
compel China to sell silver in order to obtain gold. Our gov¬
ernment is probably more interested in this matter than any
other and might with every propriety take an initiative towards
relieving the situation. The decline in silver not only disor¬
ganizes the finances of the Philippines, but it must have an un¬
favorable influence upon our trade with Asia, outside of India,
Mexico, and the South American republics. Then, too, we are
the largest producers of silver in the world, and the execution of
the treaty with China is operating to take money out of the
pockets of our miners. The evil effects of the day to day drib¬
bling away of silver quotations regarded from the bullion mar¬
ket may he small, but from a general comprehensive view they
are as widespread as trade itself. As to China, the commercial
attache of the British Legation, recently reported to his govern¬
ment: "China is standing on the eve of a very grave economic
crisis which must react with far-reaching consequences." As
China is suffering frora the competition of India and Japan in
productive lines such as those of tea and silk in which she was
once pre-eminent and has, besides a difficult domestic political
condition to deal with, been saddled v.dth a heavy debt, the bur¬
den of which is daily augmented by the decline in exchange as a
result of the fall in silver, this is not an unreasonable view to
take.
--------------•--------------
Hanhattan Residences During 1902.
JN November of last year the Record and Guide flrst pointed
â– ^ out the present very peculiar status of private dwelHng con¬
struction in Manhattan. The facts to which it drew attention
were very extraordinary. Here is a Borough of Greater New
York, in which ten years ago 700 or SOO private residences were
being erected every year, at a cost of more than $12,000,000. Dur¬
ing the following ten years, although its population was increas¬
ing at the rate of almost 30,000 a year the number of private
dwellings erected showed a steady decrease, until in the year
1901 the low water mark of only 99 such buildings was reached.
During the same period the estimated cost of these dwellings de¬
creased, but not at all in the same proportion, and this fact
supplied the explanation of such an extraordinary change. The
price of unimproved land iu all available residence districts
had increased continuously, thus adding every year a few thou¬
sand dollars to the figure at which a private dwelling could be
placed upon the market. The consequence inevitably was a
diminution in the number of such buildings which it paid to
erect, and an increase in the cost. These tendencies culminated
in 1899. at which time very little space was-left for comparative¬
ly cheap residences on the West Side, and at which time, also, a
largely augmented demand appeared for a more expensive class
of private dwellings. The whole movement is described very
clearly in the following table, which we reproduce from our ar¬
ticle of last year and bring down to date:
No. Estimated Average per
dwellings. cost. dwelling,
ir:02. Jan.-N'ov.............. IZO S=S.OSl,0tlO S;u2,HiO
l!H)l....................... !.l!) C-,.'.)21.000 50,800
VMO....................... 112 3,928,000 35.000
'^^'â– 10....................... 338 8.321J,70O 24.(100
]>â– !!«....................... 339 l.i,182,S00 18.200
1>"'....................... 492 7.49-2,]0l) 15,200
^xor........................ 410 5.527,!l.50 i;-5,4iiO
l^"''....................... 515 S.7SI7.750 17,000
1894....................... 404 8.000,JOO 17,2fO
1803....................... 511 0.510,7."O 19 000
18!I2....................... 710 12,112.-),.11II) 17 500
iNOi....................... oiiT ii,22u,r.un iii.ooo
1SU9....................... .s;r. i2.iii;3,ooo 15 too
1SS9....................... 759 12,733.000 lOJOO
It will be seen from the foregoing table that during the first
eleven months of 1902 plans were filed for 130 dwellings to be
erected at an estimated cost of $8,081,000, which was an aver¬
age of $62,ICO for each dwelling. All these figures show an in¬
crease over the year before. The number of dwellings went up
about 30 per cent, the gross estimated cost, about 31 per cent,
while the estimated cost of the average dwelling also increased
slightly. According to the recorus almost as much money was
spent on 130 dwellings last year as was spent upon 515 dwellings
in 1895, and these figures do not measure the whole difference, be¬
cause large sums are spent upon decorating the expensive dwell¬
ings, which do not appear in the estimated cost. The really as¬
tonishing fact is that the average cost of each dwelling erected
on Manhattan Island is over $62,000; for it means that, with
the land, these dwellings cost their owners twice that sum and
could not be maintained by anyone whose income was less than
$25,000 a year.
Equally interesting are the figures which show the way which
these private dwellings are being distributed in different parts
of the city. Thus out of the 130 dwellings for which plans were
filed during the first eleven months of 1902, nine were to be sit¬
uated on Washington Heights, 31 to the east of Central Park, 35
to the west of Central Park, 33 to the south of Central Park and
22 to the north of Central Park. The residences which are to be
situated on Washington Heights and Harlem are comparatively
cheap structures, the average cost ranging from $15,000 In the
first district to $24,000 in the second. The 31 dwellings that are