June 6, 1903.





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Vol.  LXXI.





JUNE 6, 1903.





No. 1838,





TXT ITH the stocks o£ the best established and best man-
^ ^ aged railroads in the United States selling on a 414
to 5 per cent- basis it is probable that the great majority of con¬
servative business men would consider that the capitalist who
can afford to buy and hold snch securities would make money.
But nevertheless it remains true that prices continue to diminish
and that the rallies which take place are merely the signal and
excuse for further liquidation- The man who believes in higher
prices is in very much the same position as the man who be¬
lieved in lower prices a .year ago. Stocks at that time were
undoubtedly selling too high; but they were so strongly held
at those high prices that it took a courageous man and a long
purse to go short. In the same way, in view of the constant
liquidation and the increasing uncertainty about the course of
business and the crops, a man requires great confidence in
long views to buy stocks at the present time. No matter how
much he may believe that they are cheap, he will be tempted
to believe that perhaps they will be cheaper still a month from
now; and this belief will probably prove to be well grounded-
A period of readjustment is taking place, which will last for a
long time still and which may reveal unexpected weaknesses in
the fabric of American industry- How much of the economic
construction of the past four years will survive a period of hard
times? What will be the effect in ease of a vigorous enforce¬
ment of the anti-trust law? 'Will railway earnings shrink as
much proportionally when they get upon the downward grade
as they did in 1893? It will take some time to answer these
questions conclusively, and while they remain unanswered prices
will remain out of harmony with values. There is indeed every
reason to believe that the great railroad and industrial corpora¬
tions wili show very much greater reserve strength under dis¬
couraging conditions than they did ten years ago; but this
opinion, like the others, has its doubtful aspects. It is a time
when people who buy stocks must be willing to take a long
chance and should be prepared to protect their purchases.





T T looks now as if the practical suspension of building opera-
■*■ tions which the lockout of the material drivers has
occasioned would soon be at an end. The Building Trades
Council is obviously backing down in the support which it gave
to the demands of the drivers; and unless something happens
to stiffen the backs of the men the whole incident will soon be
closed. An early termination of the fight would be received
with the utmost relief hy the whole building and real estate
Interest If it had lasted all summer many builders who are
financing their operations with a comparatively'small margin
of cash would have been wiped out, and all of them would have
suffered severely. At the same time the delay in the completion
of many tenements and apartment houses now under construc¬
tion could not but have the result of creating a partial house
famine next spring and of forcing many residents of Manhattan
and Brooklyn to seek living accommodations on Long Island
or in New Jersey- There has rarely been a time in this city
when the general interests of real property in New York so im¬
peratively demanded the utmost exertion on the part of builders
to provide for an actual and prospective need for new house
room. While all this is true, however, the Employers' Associa¬
tion have behaved wisely in drawing the issue very sharply at
the present time and not abating any of their demands iintil
the Building Trades Council backed down. By this resolute
action they have apparently won the first skirmish, and that
should encourage them in the belief that they have only to
persist in their present methods in order to regain control ot
their own business. Perhaps the Building Trades Council be¬
lieves that as soon as the present crisis is over the Employers'
Association ^will fall apart; but if they are counting on such a
consummation they are very much mistaken.    The employers





realize fully that the flght is a permanent one and that they will
have to win back inch by inch the ground which they have lost.
The platform which the Employers' Association adopted during
the past week sums up clearly and concisely the concessions
which must be obtained in order that its members may "lawfully
prosecute their business without unnecessary interruption,
financial loss or humiliation." They protest particularly against
sympathetic strikes, against extortion and bribery, and against
tlie confused jurisdiction of the different trades, which has occa¬
sioned so many unnecessary and exasperating strikes. At the
same time they propose to establish courts of arbitration in
which this moderate platform can be placed before the fair-
minded and intelligent among their employes. There can be no
doubt that if they stick to their present methods they will in
the long run win out.





T P in the beginning the Real Estate Association of New York
■^ does not find itself supported by any very large number
of small property owners its officials should not be discouraged
by that fact. A thoroughly representative organization of an
interest which has for years been insufficiently organized can¬
not be built up in a few months. The Real Estate Association
is not in the position of an ordinary trade association. The
people owning real property in New'York belong to widely dif¬
ferent classes in the community. The oniy part of them, whose
every-day interests and occupations bring them together, are
the professional operators and speculators, and they form only a
small faction of the whole. The consequence is that any or¬
ganization which seeks to represent them can only gradually
win its way into the favor of the property owners. Before it
obtains support it must prove itself to be deserving of support.
It must show in some emphatic and striking way that it is able
and willing to perform for the real estate interests good service.
Of course such a service cannot be performed until the oppor¬
tunity arises; and in the meantime the best that can be done is
to start the organization in the right way and direction. The
circular letter recently issued by the association should be a
help in this respect; and in starting the formation of a paid
bureau, where services will be devoted to the -work of the
association, its offlcials have taken precisely the proper step.
An organization of this kind, which is not alive exeept when
its directors or members are in session, can never be a very
considerable or efficient public force. In order to make people
recognize its existence, and in order to give its work continuity,
a permanent bureau must be provided, to which the members
will be encouraged to come and where officials will be engaged
constantly in serving real estate interests- Indeed, we are will¬
ing to go so far as to assert that the success of the association
will depend as much upon the policy and efficiency of its paid
bureau as upon the resolutions and actions of its governing
board- It should be the function of that bureau to collect all
kinds of information necessary to members of the association,
and at times to represent them in bringing pressure to bear upon
city officials who are negligent about offlcial duties and public
improvements. Whether a really valuable bureau can be estab¬
lished by an association whose dues are no more than $5 a year
remains to be seen. It was, perhaps, wise to make the initial
charges small; but we doubt very much whether tbe work of
the bureau, provided it is properly developed, will not eventually
require a larger contribution- A membership which costs only
$5 per annum will probably not be worth any more than that
sum; and a membership in the Real Estate Association of New
York should be worth more than $5 a year each to the property

owners of the city-

-----------•-----------

THE UNITED STATES is a very wealthy country; but we
doubt whether it is wealthy enough to engage in another
great war. The expenses of the -war itself could he paid and
would be paid with sufficient ease; but if the Spanish war is any
criterion, the drain upon the country's resources for pensions
after the war was over would be disastrous. Up to the present
time some 22 per cent, of the soldiers enlisted in the. American
army during the Spanish war have applied for pensions, and
this 22 per cent, is equivalent to some 65,000 applications. Con¬
sidering that at the outside only about 25,000 soldiers and sailors
saw active service, it will be realized what a small part of the
dangers of w^ar are incurred on the battlefield- Of course, we
all know that the health of the troops in camp was distressingly
bad; but after making all such allowances the number of ap¬
plications lor government assistance is ao large that it can be
explained only on the ground that very considerable numbers
of "patriots" are taking advantage of the lax pension laws in
order to obtain government money, "which they do not nee'Jl.
It is curious that a nation of thrifty people will permit itself
to be bled- ijj this -manner.    The truth is that Americans are