October 17, 1908





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Vol,  LXXXII.





OCTOBER 17.  190S.





No. 211S





ONE of the most interesting and vital questions connected
with the future of real estate in Manhattan turns
upon the possible acquisition by private companies of addi¬
tional terminal sites in that borough. In looking back over
the changes in real estate values which have taken place
since 1901 it will be immediately recognized that the pur¬
chases of terminals by private railway corporations has heen
the greatest single cause of the increase of property values
in the central and southern part of Manhattan. The enlarge¬
ment of the New York Central station had a profound effect
upon the price of residential property on the East Side. The
owners of private dwellings who were bought out at fat
prices by the railroads freciuently used the money to purchase
new residences in the same district further north, and this
artificial buying started a movement which in the course of
a few years doubled the value of the old brownstone houses
in the neighborhood affected. The proposed abolition of
steam engines in the tunnel assisted this process,-because it
removed a source of noise and dirt that made tlie district
much less desirable for residential purposes. The new Penn¬
sylvania Terminal had even a more profound effect on the
value of property throughout the middle West Side. It has
increased prices in the neighborhood of the station anywhere
from 50 to 300 per cent., and its full effects still remain to
be felt. AEter the terminal has been used for ten years, it
will be found to have retained an enormous amount of busi¬
ness in the neighborhood of Greeley Square, which other¬
wise would have drifted further north, a-nd the same state¬
ment is equally true of the McAdoo Terminal situated a
block further east. The effect of the two improvements
will be to centralize the business section of the middle dis¬
trict of Manhattan to an extent which, without their help,
would have been impossible. Finally the Trolley Terminal
at Cortlandt and Church sts has had a similar, though a
smaller effect on the lowest West Side of the borough. In
all these cases the railroad terminals merely accelerated a
process, which would in any event have gradually
taken place. The districts which we have named had all
been somewhat neglected by the course of real estate and
business development, aud something similar to what has
already taken place would eventually have occurred. But it
would have occurred much more slowly, and it might well
have taken a generation to have accomplished the results
which have been reached in sis or seven years.





ARE any more similar improvements to be anticipated
during the next decade? Upon the answer to this
question depends the course of real estate values in several
different parts of Manhattan; and speculators would do well
to give it serious consideration. There are only two sources
from which the money Eor new terminals could come. One
of these is the New Haven & Hartford Railroad Co. and the
other is the group of railroads at present terminating in New
Jersey, which are still unprovided with a terminal in Manhat¬
tan. Just what the plans of the former company are cau
only be very vaguely guessed. It is known that the company
is dissatisfied with its existing means of entering Manhat¬
tan; and it is known that changes are contemplated, but
what changes? The project of establishing a terminal on
the Bite of the Metropolitan car barn at 32d st and 4th av
gained credence for a long time and had some influence upon
the value of property in the vicinity; but the improvements
which the receivers are making on the site have made these





anticipations look very dubious. On the other hand it is
reasonably certain that the New Haven Company must do
something. It is spendiug millions in building new lines in
Westchester and the Bronx, and in electrifying its old lines;
and the completion of this suburban system absolutely de¬
mands a capacious independent entrance into Manhattan.
The president of the company has admitted that it seeks
such an entrance; and the only doubtful question is, How
much and what kind of an entrance will the New Haven
Co.'need into Manhattan, Will it establish a huge terminal
clearing house at the Harlera River, check all baggage from
that point, and be content with a direct subway connection
for passengers only to the Battery? Or will it need a ter¬
minal somewhere on the middle East Side, which will re¬
ceive all through passengers and the bulk of its suburban
traffic? Upon the answer to this question depends the real
estate developraent of the whole region between 3rd and 4th
avs, 4 2nd and 14 th sts. Any really useful terminal would
have to be situated in that section; and it would naturally
be located near the Long Island tunnel. If such a terminal
should be built, it would have an effect on the surrounding
real estate similar to that w-hich the Pennsylvania Terminal
is having on the middle West Side. No one can predict con¬
fidently that the New Haven Co. wil! undertake this great
improvement, but something of the kind assuredly looks like
the best solution of the problem confronting that corpora¬
tion.





A SITUATION similar to that of the New Haven Co. con¬
fronts certain railroads now terminating in Hoboken
and Jersey City. The Jersey Central, the Erie, the Lacka¬
wanna and others have been placed at a disadvantage in
respect to both their through and their suburban traffic by
the Pennsylvania and the Trolley Terminals in Manhattan.
This disadvantage will be peculiarly strong iu the case of
the Jersey Central. Part of its enormous suburban traffic
will undoubtedly transfer to other means of reaching Man¬
hattan, while it will no longer be able to compete effectually
with the Pennsylvania for passengers to Philadelphia, Wash¬
ington, the South and the West. The Erie and the Lacka¬
wanna are in something like the same situation—although
they could dispense witli an independent entrance into Man¬
hattan much better than could the Jersey Central. But taking
. the situation as a whole it looks as if these three railroads, in
addition to certain minor ones, had abundant reason to com¬
bine for the purpose of building into Manhattan; and it
must be remembered that two of them are largely controlled
by the most aggressive railroad manager in the country. It
is an open secret that some such plan has been discussed,
and it is more than probable that eventuaily it will be car¬
ried out. Here again the question is: What kind of an im¬
provement will probably be undertaken? The most obvious
answer to this question is that a terminal would be built
either to the south or the north of the Pennsylvania station.
It would not have to be as large as the Pennsylvania station,
but in order to compete with the latter it would have to be
located as far east, and in the same vicinity. It is
possible, of course, that the cost of such an improvement
might look too great, even for the three railroads acting in
combination; and in that event, an alternative plan might be
considered. They might seek an entrance into New York
for their suburban traffic only; such a mere modest scheme
would cost far less, and would modify the conditions of the
entire project. A terminal for suburban traffic alone would
probably be situated as near as possible to the Church st
trolley terminal—whicli would eventually he connected hy a
subway with the central and northern parts of Manhattan.
All these alternatives are, of course, only guesses; but the
real estate operator who makes his own guess and buys in
anticipation of its truth cannot lose any money and may reap
a huge proflt.





Ir IS TO BE HOPED that the Public Service Commission
will soon reach an agreement with the Interborough Co.
in respect to the purchase of the tunnel to Long Island City.
The only way out of the existing complication is the one
proposed. The Interborough Co. cannot operate the tunnel,
and the failure to operate it would be tantamount to the
absurd and stupid waste of a valuable piece of property. The
tunnel would be an immense convenience to the residents of
Long Island City. Indeed, at present, it would be more of a
convenience than the new Queensboro Bridge. For the same
reason it will be a source of increased business to the shcps
and theaters in the vicinity of Broadway.    The sooner that