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Vol.  LXXXVIL





FEBRUARY 11.  1911.





No- 2239





THE PASSING CRISIS.

DESPITE the extraordmary emigration to Long Islanci
and New Jersey last year, the vacancies In the apart¬
ment houses on Manhattan Island are fully ten per cent,
less than a year ago. This is the estimate of good authori¬
ties. There is a considerable percentage of vacancies still,
but it is steadily decreasing under present policies. For
builders and operators in apartment houses conditions are,
consequently, much improved over a year ago, so far as the
aggregate of all tbe particulars is concerned. For, tlie pro¬
portion of vacancies does not extend equally through all
grades of apartmeuts. It is a remarkable fact that iu houses
which by reason of their location, their elegance and their
exclusiveness are rated highest, comparatively few vacancies
are to he found. There also are intermediate levels iu the
scale of costs, and also intermediate locations, where excep¬
tions must he made aud building opportunities can be found.
During the year 1910 whatever shock the real-estate Inter¬
ests of Manhattan Borough sustained from the opening of
great traffic tunnels, bridges, subways and other sluice gates
for congested population, must have culminated, and passed
Its meridian, ou the theory of anticipation exceeding expecta¬
tion. For years Manhattan real-estate interests had antici¬
pated a serious declension in consequence of an enormous
emigration from the island that would attend the installation
during the period of 1903-1910 of the biggest series oC traf¬
fic Improvements ever invented for depleting the population
of a civic center. One of the very foremost men in suburban
development warned the Record and Guide that Manhattan
would be depopulated. But old New York stood the "shock"
aud to some extent thrived on it. While the Bronx and
Yonkers were getting their subways, Mauhattan realized as
her share the wonderful building movements in apartment
houses on Washington Heights and Morningside; and while
New Jersey and Long Island were getting their several tun¬
nels and bridges, central Manhattan obtained its New Fifth
Avenue, its New Fourth Avenue and, in a word, the New Mid-
town Business District. If the "worst" is over, the old bor¬
ough must be rather sorry than otherwise. The only remain¬
ing interurban traffic lines of note to be completed are the
Belmont tunuel and the Subway extension iu Brooklyn, if the
new electric express line to New Rochelle aud White Plains
is not counted. Builders have now only to exercise a little
patience aud a little judgment in respect to types and locali¬
ties. Instead of building promiscuously, in order to pass
through the remainder of the crisis successfully.





THE SMALLER TENEMENTS.

THE probability of a general resumption, eventually, of
the construction of small tenement houses on Manhat¬
tan Island is stronger than it was; both because the tech¬
nical position ol the market is improving and because a
type of house fairly profitable for builders and real estate
operators seems to be in process of evolution. By the
smaller class of tenements we mean those which are pos¬
sible and suitable for construction on inside plots in lateral
streets of ordinary width. Among the men of controlling
influence in this field the opinion is growing that the six-
story non-elevator house is the economic expedient that will
be employed to revive small tenement-house work when the
existing vacancies are filled. Houses of this bind would not
only be suitable on original sites in the northern part of
the island, hut also on old sites ou the far East Side, where





rows of small private dweUings still remain. For some
years now comparatively few tenement or apartment houses
without elevators have been erected in Manhattan, and for
a while it seemed as if no more ever would be. Almost
nothing hut elevator houses of fine c[uality have been built
in the borough since the panic of 1907. With the pass¬
ing of tlje pinching times and also with the moderating of
suburban booms, Lhe percentage of overfiow from the island
is lessening, and it is believed that there will in the next
year or so be a real demand for apartments at rates ouly
possible in nou-elevator houses,—a demand which Manhat¬
tan builders will feel called upon to meet. In the superior
locations, as on the lateral streets of the West Side of
the city, it is becoming certain that the eight-story elevator
house will be largely constructed. "As a builder's proposi¬
tion," said a large oj.Derator this week, "it answers the same
purpose as the twelve-story house." But the hour has not
yet struck for a general resumption of apartment house
construction iu Manhattan. The coming season will rather
be more notable for the erection of business, public aud
institutional buildings.





COMPETITION IN SUBWAYS.

ONE of tbe arguments which the advocates of subway
competition at any cost have urged most persistently
depends on the assertion that in any event the Interborough
Company would be obliged to build au upper East Side aud
a lower West Side Subway. Such extensious are supposed
to be necessary to a rounding out of the Interborough system,
aud Mr. Belmont's company will be forced to construct them
with its own credit. As to the confident prediction that such
a course will be adopted, the Record and Guide is not in¬
clined to offer any opinion. It might be that the direc¬
tors of the company would under such circumstances refuse
to invest any more money in New York rapid transit. They
might'well argue that if the city administration has decided
to discriminate against them and turn down their proposal,
no matter what its advantages in favor of an independent
Subway, they could not count upon fair treatment iu the fu¬
ture. The city would be investing so much money in an in¬
dependent Subway that necessarily it would thereafter con¬
tinue to strengthen the Triborough system and to discrimi¬
nate against the Interborough Co. in all its subsequent ar¬
rangements. Why, then, should not the company simply
stand pat, and he content with the large profits it is now
making? But let us assume that the arguments of the Tri¬
borough advocates are well founded, and that the Interbor¬
ough Co. would construct a Madison aud Seventh avenue
Subway by the use of their own credit. What would be the
economic consequence of such an action? In the first place,
it would mean that the $200,000,000 or more borrowed for
the construction of the competing subways would be raised
at greatly increased cost. The city's money would probably
cost 14 of one per cent. more. The company's money would
cost probably % per cent. more. The cost of borrowing and
amortizing the $200,000,000 would be increased ou the aver¬
age by one per cent, or more a year, or by something like
$100,000,000, before the securities were paid off. This huge
sum would have to be contributed by the New York travel¬
ing public. It would come out of the profits ou these sub¬
ways, which, hereafter, are to be shared by the city; aud
this diminution of subway profits would also serve to make
the money borrowed for additional subway extensions more
costly. Furthermore, the construction of a Madison avenne
line would mean that the City's subway would be pai'alleled
throughout the most profitable part of its route, and that
the traffic would not for many years be anything like as
dense as it is on the existing subway. Iu short, the imme¬
diate coustruction of the Interborough extensions would in¬
crease the cost and diminish the income of the independent
subway; and this result would be so necessary, so obvious,
that the very men who are now claiming that the Inter¬
borough would build anyway, would be determined to pre¬
vent that company from building-—as soon as an indepen¬
dent subway was once under construction.





THE ROOT OF THE QUESTION.

IT is worth while dwelling on the considerations sug¬
gested in the preceding paragraph, because they go to
tlie root of the whole question. The argument in favor of
a unified rapid transit system is hased absolutely on the
economy of such a policy, and considerations of economy
ought to be conclusive. Any subways that are constructed,
either with the City's credit or by private credit will eveut-