The Record and Guide.
THE RECORD AND GUIDE.
191 Broad way, N. Y.
DECEMBER 2—9, 1883.
PRICE OF RECORD AND GUIDE.
Per Anmim, _ . . -
With Supplement, - » . .
Record and Guide, Single Copy,
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reasonable figure, the production may be estimated to be in 1890,
167,500 tons, and in 1900, 335,000 tons.
Inc. in 10
Inc. in 10
The Statistics ofthe Industrial Future.
It is a very common practice of newspaper statisticians to publish
flgures showing tlie probable future population of tliis and other
countries, based on the past ratio of increase.; but hitherto little
attention has been given to the probable future of our great
industries. It is, of course, a somewhat dangerous field,
for production is far more variable from one decide to another
than is the increase in population. Yet, perhaps, it may not be
unprofitable to attempt a forecast of the great industrial interests
of the United States, based upon the progress made in ihe past.
In The Recced and Guide of November llth tables were pub¬
lished showing the steady growth of all our productive industries.
The figures were given of the annual production of cotton, the
cereals, coal, pig iron, lead, copper, quicksilver ah.d petroleum,
together with gold and silver. Of course, there were many and
great fluctuations, but the increase, counted by decades, was sur¬
prisingly large. For instance, in 1852, we mined 5,725,000 tons of
anthracite coal, in 1881, 30,262,000 tons. In 1852 we produced
541,000 tons of pig iron ; in 1881 4,144,000. Of petroleum, we pro¬
duced 3,000 barrels in 1859; in 1881 27,264,000; 1,000 tons of
copper in 1852 had swollen to 31,000 in 1881 ; in 1834-5 we pro¬
duced 1,254,338 bales of cotton, the crop of the present year may
run beyond 7,000,000 bales, and in no event can it fall much short
of that large figure. In 1840 we produced 84,821,065 bushels
of wheat; in 1883 the yield estimated is 520,000,000 bushels of
wheat. The corn product in 1840 was 377,492,388 bushels, and
forty years later 1,717,434,543. The increase in other cereals was
also very large.
These figures are really startling, and would give point to the
most resplendent Fourth of July oration. Indeed, Americans are
justified in their extravagant utterances as to the splendid future of
In the following we give the production for every tenth year,
and venture to estimate, taking the past ratio, what the increase
ought to be in 1890 and 1900 :
Year. Tons. Year. Tons.
1860 ..................... 8,000 ]8'0..........13,00
1870..................... 13,000 1S80...........25,000
The production of copper has increased in a comparatively equal
ratio since 1852, the average increase being about 1,000 tons per
annum ; though in recent years, notably from 1880 to 1881, there
was an increase in one year alone of 6,000 tons. Taking, however,
the average increase of the past twenty years as a criterion, the
production of copper may be estimated as follows : In 1890, 44,250
tons, and 1900, 78,322.
Year. Bbls. Year. Bbl.s.
18G0-1........2,114,000 1870-1............ 5,795,000
1870-1........ 5,795,000 1880-1............ 27,204,000
The production of petroleum has steadily increased, having been
2,114,000 barrels in 1861, and 27,264,000 in 1881, showing an increase
of about 1,189 per cent, in twenty years, being an average of 59 per
cent, per annum. Should the production of this oil increase in the
same ratio, it would reach the following figures : 1890, 172,035,840
bbls., and in 1900, 332,893,440. A'prospcctive increase such as this
would probably be enough to abolish every vestige of the " bulls'
who have for some time been in the market. But the future pro¬
duction of this mineral oil is wholly a matter of conjecture. The
news may come any time that the oil region has " petered" out.
While the production has steadily increased for the i^ast twenty-
two years, still there is no history behind it to warrant even a guess
as to the future supply. Should, however, the production increase
only a quarter as fast as during the last decade, that is, 92.50 per
cent., the figures would be 52,483,200 barrels in 1890, and 101,030,160
1800.'... .. $40,000,000
Inc. in 10 Inc.
years, s. per ct.
Dec. inlO Dec.
years. per ct.
Inc. in 10
Gold has been a decreasing production since 1854, when it was
$60,000,000, In] 1881 it had declined to $31,870,000, It is, how¬
ever, reasonable to suppose that henceforth our production of gold
may largely increase. Within the last six years our railway system
has been extended to every important mining region in the Rocky
and Sierra Nevada Mountains, and we are likely at any time to open
up bonanzas equal to those several times discovered on the Com¬
stock Ledge. We now have the experienced miners, the trained
experts, and the organized capital, ready to utilize the labors of the
army of prospectors who now swarm over all the mineral regions
where gold or silver is likely to be found. Thus, any year the pro¬
duction of gold may double, so that reliable computation is hardly
Inc. in 10
The production of this mineral has increased in variable propor¬
tion ; for example, in 1881 it rose to 80,262,000 tons, being an
increase of 5,419,000 in one year, which is equal to an annual
increment of 31 per cent. In this ratio, the production in 1900
would be 123,966,570 tons, a figure which even the most sanguine
would scarcely dare to predict. Taking the average increase during
the past two decades, the figure in 1890 will be 39,748,800 tons,
and in 1900, 63,598,080.
Inc. in 10 Inc. per
It is impossible to estimate with any degree of accuracy the
figure at which this mineral will stand, owing to the possibility of
fiscal rearrangements which may effect a revolution in this article
during the next generation, but should the proportionate increase
be equal to the previous years, the production may be estirnated as
follows : In 1890, 8,283,600 tons; in 1900, 17,892,576. Should the
production only increase half as quickly as during the last ten
years, the figures would stand: In 1890, 6,251,050, and in 1900
:c. in 10
The production of silver from 1861 to 1871 increased in an
unparalelled degree, having been ten times greater in 1871 than in
1861, The increase from 1871-81 is probably a more reasonable
basis on which to estimate the future figures, and should tiie pro¬
duction increase during the next two decades but half^as quickly
as during the last ten years, that is 51,50 yier cent, during each
decade, it will reach the following value : In 1890, $68,293,170, and
in 1900, $91,508,340.
Inc. ill to
It will be noticed that the production of this mineral has
increased very rapidly since 1870, having been almost stationary
from 1852 until that year. The increase from 1860 to 1880 has been
578 per cent,, which, if continued in the same ratio, would raise
the production in 1900 to 644,100 tons, which is undoubtedly far
beyond the mark. The production during recent years has
increased at the rate of 7,350 tons per annum, and, taking this paore
It will be observed that the ratio of increase in this cereal has
been variable during the last four decades, rising from 18 to 69 per
cent., and from 38 to 111 per cent,, decennially. This is account¬
able principally by the good and bad croi^s alternately. There can
be little doubt that the production will increase very largely in the
future, and presuming that our agricultural population will advance
as in the past, we may fairly assume that the medium ratio between
the two last decades may be taken as the prospective increase during
the next twenty years, namely, 74,50 (38-Mll-:-2=74,50), which
would give us the following figures: In 1890, 869,969,519 bushels,
and in 1900,1,518,096,860.
In", in 10 Increase
We have calculated this as well as the previous cereal from 1840
upwards, and it wiU be observed that the rate of increase is the
same in the ten years following both 1840 and 1870, and in those
subsequent to 1850 and 1860 nearly equal. Taking the mean per¬
centage of the last twenty years, namely, 44 per cent,, as tbe ratio