NoveiPber 5, 1892





Record   and   Guide.





569





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VOL.  li.





NOVEMBER 5,  1892.





No. 1,286





ADtTLL stock market is the opportunîty of Ihe specialist; con-
sequently Ite features of the market, awaiting the result of
nest Taesíáay's polling, have been the manipulatíon of soch issues as
Chicago gas and minor railroad stocks, in the latter of wbieh there
is generatly a fair suspicion that tbe buyer and the seller is for the
moat part the aame indiviijua]. Outside of tbis movement of
apecialties and a very limited commisaion business, tbo interest of
Wall Street bas been mainly political. To ati impartial
observer it would seem tbat the only salvation of
the monetary world would be the triumpb of a third
party at the polls. These prophecies are as natural to elec-
tions as hair to the head. If anyone will cast a tbought
across tbe Atlantic to England for other than free trade or
tariff argument, he will at the present moment find a party trying
to forget the foolish thingsit said wouldfoliowif thegovernmentof
the nation was taken out of its hands and it relegated to the merely
watchdog po&ition of the party in opposition which it no w holds, and a
party in power not yet able to sbow hcw it îs goîng to redeem the many
promíses of good to follow tbe transference of control to its bands.
It will not lie forgotten, too, that tlie prospects o£ Mr. Gladstone's
accession to power made some foolish people sell their shares in the
Bank of Ireland. If any here tbink of disposing of their invest-
ments forpurely political reásons, let them remember these things.
Of courae, professional operators will act on the result one way or
tbe other, and a temporary change of prices will result. The con-
tinuance of the present administration and its fiscal policy is
generally conceded to be likely to leaat disturb quotations.





THE effect of the sliglit revival of business confidence whícb has
recently taken place iu Londou may be seen by a mimber of
indicaiions. The ChiliaD loan, lattly ofîered, was subscribed to
many times over, sbowing that the English investor is still favor-
able to South American securities. Another indication to tbe same
effect is a recrudescence of more tban doubtful ntw corapanies
inviting subscriptions of new capital, This revival of speculative
corfidence has not beeu induccd by any revivat of trade. The
increase in tbe bank rate was due to the forei<;n withdrawals of
gold. Witbin the past few ^í ceks tbese withdrawals bave amountod
m the ag^regate to inore than £-l,000,WO. The only question
is wbetber tlie present advance in rate wiU piove a suffi-
cient protection, and as to tbîs conBiderable doiibt is expressed.
Austro-Hungary must bave gold wberewitb to carry out tbe scheme
of currency reform upon which the two governments have
embarked. Cbili also wants goid ín order to restore her paper
currency to a specie baeis. Both of these are new demands and,
although they are not likely to be unduly pressed, tbey will always
be hanging over the London money market and causing an absotp-
tion of tbe metal wbenever opportunity offers. Tbese and other
demands are so threatening that a high Bank rate is to be expected
unlit they are abated. One indícation of tbe business depression
in Great Britaiu is tbe sensible decrease in the demand
tor skillea workmen. Tbe falling off is not confined to
any special branch of trade. The returns sent in hy Ihe chief
trade unions sbow that in every case tbere is an increase in the
number of unemployed workmen on the books of sucb aocieties.
Since the middle of last year the lahor market has slowly but
surely indicated the progress of a period of trade depression, but in
no month during tbe wbole of tbat time haa tbe change Jor the
worse been 80 strongly marked as daring the month .just passed
away. Owing, of course, to the slackness of tiade, of which the
unfavorable nature of the late uuemployed leturns furnish so
strong an iudicatíon, there have recently been many movementa to
reduce wages or otberwise to render conditions of labor more diffi-
cult for the ejnployed. In consequence there bas been a great
ucreaae   in    ihe    number    of   strikes.    It   ia   to   be   noticed





that all attempts to concĩliate the disagreement hetween
tbe cottou spinners and theîr employers have failed; and
tbat one of tbe most împortant strikes in tbe history of Enghsh
industry is likely shortly to take place. So far as France is con-
cerned, trade during September dimiaished compared with last
year, both în the imporfs and the exports, but principally in the for-
mer, the .latge arrivals of wbeat caused by the failure of tbe crop
in France, and of the new vintage of Spanisb wines, in view of
the application of tbe higber tariff having commenced last year.
The imports and exports of manufactures have each declined
eleven millions of francs, but tbe loss represents 20 per cent în the
mports and only 7 per cent in the exports.





IN an excellenfc article, the Coinmereial BuUetin draws attentĩon
to tbe unrel íability of the reports of the stocb of gold held in
this country, issued annually by tbe Director of the Mint. The
stock is accounted for under four beads : (I) gold beld by United
States Treastiry ; (3) beid by National Banks ; (3) held by etate,
privale, and savings banks, trust companiea and otûer financial
institutions, partly estimated; (4) in private hands. Rougbly
speaking, the first three account for aboui one-half of the country's
stock of gold as estimated, and thefiguresare very nearly posilively
accurate. Under tbe fourth head, however, standa something over
§300,000,000, and it is about tbis atnouut that question arises. There
is, of course, no reliable ineans of finding bow much gold ia in tbe
actual possesaion of individuals at any moment. At best it can
only be guessed at, and there are no data available to give any sort
of certitude to the guess. It can proceed froin known facts about
as well as an e-timate of the population of Mars. Tbe Uirectora of
tbe Mint have started in their stock-taking, under this head, from
an assnmption, and havemodifîed this assumptíon annually accord-
ing lo stiU further asaumptions. A process of this kind naturally
stultifies itself in time, and the Commerciil Bulletin raises the
queation whether the point of manifest absurdity has not already
been reached. It is generally known that gold ia not commonly
current aniong our people, wbo mucb prefgr bills. It is com-
paratively seldoni met with in every-day monetary tranaactions,
and the tendency of the bolder ia to pass it away as soon as pos-
sible, or deposit it in a bank. Neitlier are our people given to
hoarding. The old-stocking method oE saving is in iittle repute
among an active commercial community sucb as ours is. But
tbere is over |300,000,000 of gold coin to be accoimted for,
if the'.r&PO'^t of the Dîrecfcor of the Mint ia accurate—that is
between five and six dollara for every man, woman and nhild in
the land. It isn't possible to demonsfcrate that thia amount is
largely fîctifcious; but demonstration is not necessary. The
probabilities against its existence are even stronger than
a demonstration, As the Commereial B-alletin says: " The
official reporting of a hypotbeticai immense idle surplus of
gold is a matter of very questionable prudence. In affairs of such
f undamental importance we cannot afford to be misled by mere
official guessea. Tbe monetary affairs of the world are verging on
a crisis in wbichit may be vitally important to know, with approxi-
mate accuracy and without poesibilifcy of miatrust, how mutjh
gold the Uniied Statea bave to depend upon, and to be told, under
Bucb circumsfcances, tbat we have aeven bundred millions, when
we have possibly but five hundred millions, might lead us
into very grave errors of national policy. If no better
estimates are possible tban tbose that yîeid the present unbelievable
result—which may possibly be ihe fact—-then it would be far better
for tbe Government to leave the responsibility of fcaking tbe nafcional
sfcock of gold to tbose who can make guesses without responsibility.
Tbe Director of the Mint would be entitled to the respect of the
public if he were to say, in his next annual report, that the out-
come of the available methods of estimate nad become so incredible
that he had concluded to discontinue his statements of tbe stock
of gold."





WE have been aesured from every quarter that tbe present
campaign is a '*Campaign of Education." Everybody Í8
parrating tbe phraae, and it is probablo tbat a greafc many people
really believe wbat they repeat. But, wbere are we to find any
process in recent electioneering which one dare dignify with the
term " Education?" We wish some one would show it to us, for
look where we may we can find nothing of fche kind. It is true,
the brass band, the highly decorated " pereonality," and many of
tlie circus accompaniments of previous campaigns have played a
very small part so far in the prcsenfc contest. This is, undoubtedly,
a welcome conceseion to public decency and decorum. It is, in a
way, a lesaon in gcod manners and good sense, which may he
effective in the future. But ii is not Education in the sense intended
by tbose who aaeure ua that the campaign has been one of Educa-
tion. Ifc may be that voters have been studying econoraics and
statiatics in secrecy, and have acquired for themselves not only a
close koowledge of facts relevant to the questions of the campaign,
but that which is even more valuable and, is the ĩndubitable sign of