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January 19,1805
Record and Guide.
81
Dented to Rp\l Estme.BuiLDiKc %cKiTEcrrun,E*KousEKou>DESOHjnoit
B[J5I(/ess AttoThemes of GEffefifcl ll^EST.
PRICE, PER YEAR IN ADVANCE, SIX DOLLARS.
Publislied every Saturday.
TBtxEpHONB,......Cortlandt 1370
Communications should be addressed to
C. W. SWEET, 14-16 Vesey Street.
J. 1. LINDSEY. Business Manager.
Brooklyn Office, 276-282 Washington Street,
Qpp, Post Offioh.
" Entered al the Post-office al "New Tork, if. T., as second-class matter."
Vol. LV.
JANUARY 19, 1895.
No. 1,401
For additional BrooMyn matter, see BrooMyn Department immediately
following New Jersey records {page llOj.
THE Imsiiiess world evidently takes it for granted that Con¬
gress will provide for the needs of the Treasury before
adjourning, besides passing some other measures calculated to
improve the commercial situation. Senator Sherman's proposi¬
tion is the best yet suggested, aud it will probably form the
basis for action when the party leaders finally come to see that it
is hopeless to attempt to iiass a comprehensive currency measure
at present. The public evidently does not think it possible that
Congress can adjourn without putting the Treasury iu a better
condition than it is now in, otherwise the reports from trade
centres would not be as cheerful as they are and the stock mar¬
ket would not advance iu the face of a rapidly declining Treas¬
ury gold reserve and very large exports of gold. In fact, to
allow things to drift on as they are drifting would be an offense on
the part of our legislators too monstrous to contemplate. Be¬
sides this faith on the part of tlie public, "Washington advices
indicate that it is uot misplaced and that the Pooling bill will
pass the Senate substantially in the form xn which it came from the
House. Other conditions are not unsatisfactory* but clearly in¬
dicate improvemeuts. One fact of importance in this connection
is the favorable reports which wholesale houses are receiving
from their men on tho road. A further fact, probably more sig¬
nificant than any, is the disappearance cf the crowds of unem¬
ployed from the streets, who last year at this time not only pre¬
sented a picture of indigence very painful to see but in many
places endangered the puhlic peace. This change can only be
the result of improved commerci.il conditions providing more
work for the laboring classes. Whether the improvement of
business which has beeu going on for some time will continue
remains entirely with Congress, and upon its acts or omissions
prices will depend.
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STATISTICS, which appear in large quantities at the opening
of the year, bear out the assertions made for some time that
business abroad touched bottom last year and is nowimproving.
The clearings of the Loudon banks for 1894 were less than in
auy year since 1887 aud the tot.al clearings for Stock Exchange
days less thau in any year since 1885, but when details are ex¬
amined it appears that there was a gratifying increase in both
items for the last quarter of the year compared with the same
qua^rter of 1893. The revenue returns also show a pleasing
increase to tho extent of promising a surplus afc the close of the
Government's fiscal year in Marcli next. The Bank of England
has increased its advances upon both government aud other
securities, whieh is also true of the returns of the Bank of
France, the Nethcrlauds Bank, the Bank of Spain and the
National Bank of Belgium. Rates for money coutiuue absurdly
low for Loudon, but quite good on the Continent, especially at
Paris. Prices, however, have as yet shown small signs of rally¬
ing, but the drop has been so steady that 1894 ought to be the
low year for most things. The London Eeonomisfs table shows
of twenty-six typical articles twenty selling at the close of 1894
lower than at the end of 1893, four at the same price, and only
two, saltpetre and petroleum, selling higher. The Vienna
Boui'se has had another scare, rates for loans on securities hav¬
ing risen to 20 per cent., the Austro-Hungarian Bank refused
to make loans to operators, aud only the intervention of funds
from other markets prevented a panic. The action of the home
bank was intended apparently to punish houses that were repu¬
tably fond of speculation and not because its loanable funds
were exhausted. Trade returns for November in Germany,
Austria and India all show increases. The political situation at
the opening of 1895 is not more mixed than usual, the evident
disposition of the Emperor of Germany to run things alone ex¬
citing more fear for his oi,vn people than for others. At the
moment, remarkable as it may appear, there is no war scare,
though of course one can arise at auy moment where so many
nations maintain armies on a scale warranted only by a. near
danger of war; but, this notwithstanding, the specialists in that
line will apparently fight many a campaign in the reviews and
newspapers before more effective forces are sent to the front.
Another significant fact ia the coolness with which the French
public took the resignation of one President aud the election of
his successor; all the excitement seems to have beeu confined
to purely political circles.
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A CORRESPONDENT writes chiding us bitterly for publish¬
ing last week Mr. Benner's prediction of the financial
outlook for the coining year. He thinks, in the first place, that
it is very poor policy for a newspaper to say anything that must
be unpleasant to the majority of its readers, and what could be
more unpleasant now than to be told that business depression
has settled down upon us and will remain upon us for some time to
come? Ho also thinks Mr. Benner is utterly discredited as a
"prophet," and no attention should be given to his utterances.
It is, of course, unuecessary to say anything about the strange
idea that it is the whole duty of a newspaper to tickle the taste
and the imagination of its readers. As to Mr. Benner's
efficiency as a "prophet," Mr. Benner utterly disclaims any
intention to figure in that role. Every business man attempts
to do what Mr. Benner attempts, that is, to anticipate future
commeicial conditions by reasoning from the exiierience of the
past and the state of the present. Wall street operations are
largely based upon just such anticipations about the future.
Finaucial writers on all the daily papers vaticinate likewise.
The only difference between the diurnal screed and Mr. Benner's
forecast is that the latter endeavors to reach out a little further-
There are at times facts in a nation's affairs the significance of
which may legitimately be supposed to extend over a twelve
mouths, and with care these facts and their consequences may be
understood. In the years 1889,1890 and 1891, Mr. Benner pre¬
dicted a renewal of speculation and trade and high prices. There
were facts at the time which warranted the prediction. We know
it was not very far from correct. In 1892, when everything
was booming, Mr. Benner said: " We are noio approaching a lotv
price cycle.'''' " I now predict tliat the channel of trade will become
stagnant, and general htisiness will lam-gnish and low prices will
prevail for the next six years." That was three years ago. The
events of the last eighteen months have painlully proved the
accuracy of this prediction. No man, of course, can be cognizant
of all the elements which make up the commercial condition
of a nation like ours. There is great opportunity for
error. The most that Mr. Benner or any oue else can
do is to study with care the larger signs of the times. More than
once Mr. Benner has done this with rare accuracy. Wo have
not aud'others have not always agreed with the reasons he gave
for Mr anticipations and often when we have differed from him
theresultssomehowhavejustitiedhis judgments. To-day he
thinks that business is not about to revive. Certainly this is
uot a hazardous statement to make in view of existing condi¬
tions. The deficiency in t^o corn ei'op last year, tho low prices
that prevail generally, the despondent tone of peojile, make very
strongly forthe dark side. On the other hand there are many
things which abundantly justify more hopeful presemtments.
The very lowness of prices, the prevalence of despondency are
regarded in some quarters as indicating thatthe bottom has been
touched. Then, too, unquestionably there are not so many
people unemployed to-day as there were at the same time twelve
months ago. We publish elsewhere some interesting facts ou
this point. During the last year great economies have
beeu effected in the working of the commercial machinery, and
these read,iiistmeut9 give merchants flrm ground to stand upon.
Moreover, there are vast sums of capital lying idle in all the
great money-centres and histoiy certainly shows that this is one
of the most importaut and potent of prerequisites for a revival
of trade. In sliort, the facts of our situation are pretty well
known. Every man may be his "own prophet" in these mat¬
ters if he does not care to accept Mr. Benner as such. To some
extent every merchant must do something in the "prophet
business " for himself.
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WHEN the Power of Removal Bill is passed the necessity of
bringing all the "diffeieut departments of the city to¬
gether in one building, or in a set of connected bnildiugs, will
be more pressing than ever. The M,ayor of the city will then he
tho real head and not merely a member ex-offlcio of each and
every department, and that beiug tho case it ought to be po,ssi-
ble for him to bring the responsible chiefs together for consulta¬
tion or to confer personally with any oue of them by a touch of
a bell. The importauce of concentrating the offices of the city
departments is so obvious that it is a matter of unceasing wonder
that it has uot beeu done long ago. Among the virtues of our
people none excites the unflattering regard of the foreigner as does
its patience under offtci.al inflictions. It is its cajiacity for long
suffering that has made it possible for tbe municipal authorities