June g, 1900,
RECORD AHD GUIDE.
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DEv&iEDTDRpV-EsTAlt.BuiLoiffe ^RqM'nzcTUi^.KofSEaoLDDEoa^uwl
Bi/sd/ess aiJdThehes Of GejIer^I ll^TtllfSl.
PRICE PER YEAR IN ADVANCE SIX DOLLARS.
Puhlished evert/ Saturday.
Telephone, Cortlandt 1370.
Communications should be addressed to
C. W. SWEET, 14-16 Veaey Street.
/. r. LINDSEY, Business Manager.
"Entered at the Post-Offlce at New York, N. 7., as second-class maltn:"
Vol, LXV.
JUNE 9, 1900.
No. 16S2,
ONLY news adverse to values is effective on the stoek market
at present. This is usually the case in a dull time, and
the present is unqualifiedly a dull time. Quotations have, as a
â– whole, moved slowly downward, hecause that mtist be the me¬
chanical result of the absence of the speculative public when the
sellers, of whom there are always some, must make concessions
to realize on their holdings. This downward movement will be
quickly accelerated if the news of the day relating to crops and
trouble abroad is confirmed. A poor'proBpeet for wheat in the
Northwest will influence the prices of a line of railroad stocks
that have been the strongest and steadiest of tbeir class and
sympathetically demoralize others. As it happens, one of the
Northwesterners, Northern Pacific, is a speculative favorite in
Berlin, where there is already a scare on the drop in iron and
steel prices on this side of the Atlantic, which are taken to fore¬
tell fiercer American competition in the iron and steel markets
of Europe, and consequently cutting into the proflts of Euro¬
pean industrial issues. Berlin is then likely to sell this stock
for two reasons: One, that means must be found to protect home
indUL-trinl issues, and the other that a smaller wheat crop in the
Northwest means smaller profits for Northern Pacific itself.
Similar facts and reasonings will influence the prices of other
stocks. On the other hand there are sections where a bountiful
crop is assured, and the stocks of the roads developing thera
ought to advance, and would except for the sympathetic connec¬
tion that holds stocks more or less together, and only leaves as¬
sured steadiness or a smaller decline in these cases. Our market
is affected, too, by the nervousness apparent abroad over the
situation in China, where the elements for a big conflagration
have been lying for some years. If the stability of investments
there is threatened we shall find ourselves drawn upon for assist¬
ance through realizings in our market, which is another thing
that may help a downward movement. But one thing must be
kept in mind, and that is that our own situation is a sound and
not an unsound one, and that the declines will afford oppor¬
tunities for profitable buying in proportion to tbeir intensity. A
much less substantial showing than we can make now would
have justified cheerfulness some years ago, and we have no rea¬
son, whatever to be scared, though we cannot help the effects on
prices that sectional troubles at home and abroad bring.
THE week failed to develop any suggestion of tbe final spurt
of activity which usually marks the close of the market
for city property in June. Sometimes this temporary revival,
which is based on tbe normal periodic movement of capital,
runs into the first week in July. But this year indications point
to an early summer in real estate. Money is cheap and plenti¬
ful. On the other hand, builders hesitate to undertake new
ventures on a falling material market, particularly as prices
have not yet declined to a level which would insure a certain
profit on speculative construction work. At the same time,
conditions are not ripe for a general influx of outside invest¬
ment capital, which is not likely to assume large proportions
before the industrial situation comes to be regarded as unsafe.
Real estate is evidently experiencing the sort of temporary re¬
action that is apparent in other staple markets. Speaking gen¬
erally, prices of commodities having become unduly inflated by
tbe inability of modern plants of production to supply a sudden
and extraordinary increase in demand, called into requisition
antiquated or disused plants, until production passed beyond
consumption. The logical fall in prices tends to render all but
modern plants once more unprofitable, and to cause a restrictiou
on production by putting obsolete plants out of commission. In
nearly every line of trade, manufacturers, middle-men and
speculators are working off stocks accumulated on a rising mar¬
ket, while buyers make hand-to-mouth purchases BO long as
quotations continue to decline. The gradual reduction of stocks,
together with restriction on production, is working towards a
stable level of prices, and when that stability is attained we shall
undoubtedly have a prolonged period of heatbful activity in all
lines ot iiusiness, for current reports on the agricultural, rail¬
way and banking interests preclude any fear as to tbe essential
soundness of the general industrial situation. The process of
restoring equilibrium to prices can hardly extend beyond the
summer. At any rate, when that equilibrium is attained specu¬
lative building, with a consequent demand for lots, is certain to
be-revived, and it is equally certain that the liberation of capital
by restriction on production in the general industrial field must
presently turn a considerable amount of outside money into real
estate for investment. Meantime, rentals on all classes of bous¬
ing continues to rise as a consequence of the current inactivity
in the building industry, and tbe brokerage reports show less
than the usual falling off in the market for private houses as
the vacation period approaches.
Dull Days.
"P" HERE are periods wlien a sort of feeling of lassitude seems
* to seize upon the entire community and the word "dull"
is on everyone's lips. All the markets report dullness as the
prevailing characteristic, the individual appears to be surprised
at the inactivity that has come over himself and his affairs, and
even opens his newspaper with a listless expectation of finding
"nothing in it." "It is like the yawn that goes around the com¬
pany, that a few minutes ago was in the height of enjoyment,
when wit fails or saiety ensues on a too plentiful feast. This
is the condition prevailing at the present moment. People have
the azure trouble, or, In vulgice, are in the dumps. Why? Most
of them would flnd it hard to explain. Those who think it out
are very likely to come to the conclusion, and logically too, that
it is due to the limitations of human nature to endure any par¬
ticular kind of fortune, whether good or bad, for too long a time.
Four years ago at this time we experienced the same feeling at
the end of a prolonged period of bad business; to-day it super¬
venes on an equally extended period of good business. This
seems somewhat inconsistent, and is. The equable observer
who is free from the common influence, if any such remarkable
being existed, would exclaim: "How very singular, whether busi¬
ness is bad or good you poor mortals are unhappy."
If we look back upon the past four years we will see that we
have had a very exciting time. We entered upon it in a decided
condition, in vulgice again, of funk. The free silver scare kept
us awake at night, and anxious by day. So soon as the elections
had dismissed it to the infinities, we proceeded to celebrate, and
kept it up until a little while ago, with the Spanish war, and a
business movement that knocked all precedent to pieces, fol¬
lowed by a foreign war that aifected us profoundly. With so¬
briety comes the headache, the feeling of fatigue, blue vision and
biliousness. The curious thing is that all the time we were en¬
joying ourselves so hilariously we knew the pleasure could not
endure beyond a comparatively brief period, and while we are
now trying to make ourselves miserable we know that six
months hence we shall be as cheerful and chipper as we, or any
other community, has ever been. Something of sadness we may
alloW' ourselves hecause of the results of our little unpleasant¬
ness with Spain, but not very much when we see what follows
other such undertakings. Bellona is a dangerous goddess to
arouse, sometimes injuring her invokers more than those whom
she is called to punish. But other and more gracious deities
finally bestow the rewards. Looking at our trade and commerce
fairly, we have to admit that it was not in the nature of things
human tbat we could keep up such a pace as we did in the past
three years. That enormous activity was due, in a large meas¬
ure, to the work that had accumulated on our hands during the
time of unnecessary fear of the consequences of the populistic
and dishonest currency movements, when none had the courage
to enter enterprises, however promising or necessary for the
well-being of the community. The accompanying growth of
population increased the dimensions of our needs and the two
together taxed our utmost strength and resources when cour¬
age and confidence where aroused by the triumph of the honest
money party at the polls. As our arrears have been overcome
and our normal measure of wants supplied, it is not at all re¬
markable that a reaction should ensue and that prices, that rose
and rose under an abnormal demand, should now decline to a
basis commensurate with a normal one.
The gloomy feeling that is prevalent now is due to a lack of
the sense of proportion and a disregard of the principle of aver¬
ages that would, if exercised, do much to offset the evils of the
individualistic system which controls modern society.Were these
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