REAL   ESTATE







BUILDERS







NEW YORK,  NOVEMBER   13, 1915





I FUTURE  CONSTRUCTION  COSTS   IN   NEW   YORK I





Some Interesting Facts anid Figures Showing What Will                                |

Happen If Foreign Markets Call for Building Materials                                |

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BY this time building contractors, archi¬
tects and prospective building in¬
vestors are pretty well convinced that
normal conditions are at hand. They
have been bumping over a period of
depressions for so long that they were
about to rejoice over the return of pros¬
perous times, when an unexpected ad¬
vance in the price of Portland cement,
structural steel, brick and some of the
basic building commodities reminded
them that perhaps conditions were head¬
ed for the extreme opposite to that from
which they have just emerged, which
prompted an investigation by the Record
and Guide, with the following rather
startling results.

Satisfied early in the year that the
war was going to have a continued de¬
pressing effect upon construction, build¬
ing material manufacturers, with hardly
an exception, decided to limit their
stocks this year. They had experienced
considerable stress in 1913 and the latter
part of 1914 from over stocks, in a dull
market. This time they were going to
be prepared. So they reduced their
capacity.

Building Gains Shown.

Just at about the time when the fall
reaction in building construction normal¬
ly develops, building conditions began
to show gains. August showed more
plan filings than for any single month
since July, 1912. September gained over
August by 22.9 per cent and October
showed 37.1 per cent.

The flotation of the Allies loan
brought confidence. A market for our
cereals and mill products was assured
whether the Dardanelles were opened to
the wheat fields of Russia or not. Rates
of exchange automatically regulated
themselves. Stocks began to be pur¬
chased and building money, notably in
mortgages, became easier. That re¬
leased a great quantity of construction
work that had been held back for a year
or more.

The Bronx began to take the lead in
borough building activity. Queens was
a close second. Industrial East Jersey
kept pace. Shipyards began calling for
tmiber. Machine shops called heavily for
war steel. Then they began to take
structural steel to enlarge their own
plants. The reflection was found in in¬
adequate storage and housing facilities
in various centers. Bridgeport, Conn.,
added 22,000 to its population in five
weeks and some factories had to house
their people in stock rooms until they
could find boarding places. Newark
pushed its plans for meadow develop¬
ment to completion this year, instead of
next spring. Factories are going up
there. All these operations called for
building materials.

Material Price Movements.
In April of this year Portland cement
was down to $1.23 a barrel. Dealers
bought heavily. Their yards were filled.
In September they were receiving their
last shipments at that price from the
mills. In October prices were at $1.52
a barrel and practically all the unprece¬
dented stocks of $1.23 cement had gone





into construction. By the end of Octo¬
ber all the $1.48 cement had been sold,
$1.52 prices were stifif and on November
the first the price went up to $1.67, with
dealers anxiously inquiring what pros¬
pects there were for getting cement at
that price after thirty days.

In March of this year common Hud¬
son brick was selling at $5.50 and $6.00
a thousand, dock, N, Y. wholesale to
dealers. Manufacturers had some 400,-
000,000 still unsold from last year. On
August 1 the price of this commodity
had dropped to $5,25 and $5,75. Manu¬
facturers were in despair and were ready
to close their plants down with less than
half normal quota. There had been a
strike, not wholly regretted by manufac¬
turers, at Haverstraw early in the brick
making season. But when it became
known that in August a gain of 13.7
per cent, had been made in building
construction brick manufacturers changed
their mind about closing down. They
tried to get more men, but other mills
offered more money and men were hard
to get._ In the meantime prices in a
dull building market in this city stayed
steady at low levels until on October 9
prices were found to be at $6.50 and $7
a thousand, and not a great quantity of
future brick available. Dealers had not
stacked to any extent, so that the mar¬
ket was extremely tight at those levels
and was considered firm.

Ideal   Building   Weather   Helped.

To further aggravate building material
conditions, ideal building weather pre¬
vailed almost continuously from Septem¬
ber 1 to the second week in November.
Construction work went ahead as seldom
before in New York at this time of the
year. Operations were rushed to com¬
pletion for the October renting season,
and so were other operations that were
not scheduled to be completed until after
the first of the year. This condition pre¬
vailed until it was suddenly discovered
that the railroads were all congested
with freight. The Panama Canal slides
had shut out quantities of Oregon pine
and other lumber from the far west.
Every available steam packet doing a
coastwise traffic had been chartered for
foreign freight service, barges down the
bay were impressed into floating store¬
houses and even premiums were unavail¬
ing in moving freight.

Concrete Ingredients Hard Hit.

If ever there was a case of unprepared-
ness in the U. S. A. it is right now in
the matter of making a meagre supply
keep up with demand for building mate¬
rials. Concrete ingredients, for instance,
are particularly Iiard pressed. Trap rock,
ordinarily used for concrete bond, where
gravel is not used, has advanced five
cents a cubic yard and may go higher.
The other alternative is gravel, which
has been advanced between five and ten
cents a cubic yard. All steel reinforce¬
ment material is higher by ten cents a
pound than it was four months ago.
Even sand has gone up five cents a cubic
yard.

What of Foreign Reconstruction?

Leaders of thought in the building ma¬
terial  and  equipment market have  been





forced to consider possible eventualities
should a demand develop from Europe
for American quick-assembling building
materials like hollow clay tile, Portland
and natural cement, lumber, sheet metal,
glass and insulating material for houses.

According to reliable authorities in¬
vestigating the destruction wrought in
France during the war, the structural
damage to property in the city of Liie,
France, amounts to $300,000,000, esti¬
mated as cost of reconstruction of all
buildings damaged. This is about what
the destruction to property in San Fran¬
cisco was at the time of the fire. But
when there are several hundred cities
and towns laid in almost equal waste in
all parts of France, Belgium, Servia, Bul¬
garia, Greece, Turkey, Russia and, to
some extent, in Germany, not to mention
the damage wrought by air raids in
England, the possible demand for con¬
struction material reaches unimaginable
figures.

Europe's Cement Resources.

Under normal conditions, foreign pro¬
duction of Portland cement alone is
shown in the accompanying table:

Per cap.
Bbls.        Estimated consum.,
produced,    population,    bbls.

England........   16,000,000     45,000,000    .355

Germany........40,000,000     65,000,000    ,621

France..........    3,500.000     39,300,000    ,089

Russia..........    3,000,000    160,000,000    .0189

Belgium........     1„500,000       7,.300.000    .2054

Austria-Hun-----    4,500,000      50,000,000    .09

United States...   92,000,000      95,000,000    .9^

With 78 per cent of the individual and
mining section of France laid waste by
an invading army, all machinery either
removed or destroyed, and her men in¬
capacitated, it is apparent that she will
not immediately be able to help herself
in the reconstruction work and feed her
people and shelter them. The percent¬
age of France's iron, steel and coal in¬
dustry under Germian control is as fol¬
lows: Coal, 88.8; coke, 78.3; iron ore, 90;
pig iron, 85.7; puddle iron and puddle
steel, 62.4; steel billets, 16; rails and
sleepers, 16; girders, 88.3; sheets, 63.2;
wire, 100; steel castings, 76.9. France has
never been a large user of cement for
house construction. She had used brick
and stone. But now, with fewer men to
make brick and hew the stone, it is look¬
ing for foreign supplies to help her
house her people and quick-assembling
materials are being inquired for. Al¬
ready there has been received very defi¬
nite proposals for Portland cement run¬
ning in volume from 1,000,000 to 3,000,-
000  barrels.

How About Domestic Supplies?

If this demand should develop, and it
IS assumed that if it already has devel-
op.ed in France, similar inquiries will de¬
velop in other countries, people here at
home are beginning to ask where will
building material prices go to. So specu¬
lative elements have entered the material
field and while manufacturers are pro¬
tecting regular customers, it is likely that
prices will continue to rise further, espe¬
cially if construction continues through¬
out the country. This will not be prob¬
able until after the railroads get into
the supply market, but they have already
begun to buy. It is a good time for build¬
ing projectors to be properly prepared.