May 23, 1885





The   Record   and   Guide.





691





ent rooms are of the advanced type, having Rideau grates, tUed chimney
brests, carved over mantel shelves and beveled plate mirrors. One of the
features is the oak sideboard in the dining-room, enriched with Indian
carvings. Tbis carved work is largely used in the interior trim, and dis¬
plays it to advantage. There is a handsome Japanese lattice in the Ught-weU
over the stairs in one of the houses. There are electric bells in the various
rooms. The burglar alarm indicator has a neat case surmounted by a
diminutive alarm clock. The houses are in cabinet trim throughout; there
is closet room in abundance; the ventilation and plumbing is perfect, and
the interior, as a whole, gives evidence of much thought and refinement.
These residences should be occupied by the cultured, for whom they have
evidently been designed. They are in this respect unsurpassed by any house
in Newark. Oue of the houses is occupied bj' the Rev. Dr. J. R. Tayior; the
other is about to be placed upon the market. There are other handsome
residences on High street, of which we may have  occasion to speak in a

future article.

--------•--------

The Worlcl  of Business.

The Corn Problem.

A good many people are now asking questions in regard to the probable
magnitude of the supply of corn the coming summer. The recent move¬
ment from the countrj' has been light enough to raise some doubt that there
is much corn behind. The difficulty lies in the inabUity of some folks to
recognize a change in the situation mthout misjudging the causes thereof.
In this case the great fact to be grasped is that scarcely any corn was
cribbed in the West last winter. The receipts of com at primary markets
In the spring raonths are necessarily almost confined to that which was put
into cribs during the cold weather, because the farmer is too busy in the
spring, preparing for another crop, to be able to spare men and teams to
carry com to market. After he has finished his spring work in the flelds
and set another crop in motion he is at liberty to mai-ket his surplus from a
previous crop. Ordinarily he has not much to bring forward at this season,
as he has already marketed the larger part of it. But this year he has done
little in that direction, and has aU the more to do. It is true that
last winter was a hard one, imd much more corn than usual was
consumed on the farm. But the yield was a magnificent one, and is
very far from having been exhausted by the increase in home use. It
is probable that not more than half of last year's crop has been used up
yet, though fully 60 per cent, of the crop has ordinarUy disappeared
within six months after it was gathered, owing to the greater consump¬
tion of the winter months. The prospects are that the shipments of corn
from this country this summer will be large enough to satisfy all the
wants of the people who buy for other thau speculative purposes. There
is a great deal of corn iu fli-st hands, though it may prove that the expec¬
tations of some with regard to the supply from Kansas wiU be disappointed,
as that State got rid of a large part of her surplus during the cold weather.
But Nebraska and Iowa are looming up with a big promise, some estimat>-
iug as much as eighty miUiou bushels to come trom the former State alone.
It is true that the low prices which ruled last fall caused much com to be
left out in the fields, some of which is not worth the gathering; and it also
invited to an enormous waste, the jiroperty not being regarded as worth
caring for. But prices have been good enough for some months
to invite saving, and they now compare so favorably with those
for wheat as to invite holders to sell freely. The mode of distri¬
bution during the summer months wiU depend, as in former j'ears,
upou the amounts which the trade is wiUing to pay for carrying
the grain over. Large prenuums for September deUvery would cause an
accumulation of com along in the latter part of the hot weather; but such
premiums would not be likely to exist in the case ot any material pressure
to ffll contracts maturing earUer in the season. It is the opinion of some
persons in the trade that the consumption ot corn wiU be much smaUer the
coming summer than usual. They say that the glucose works and the dis-
tUleries wiU do little, making a small demand for what are known as
" manufacturing purposes." But against this we may cite the lessened pro¬
duction of green feed due to the backward season, which is at least two
weeks late, and is estimated to yield not far from 30 per cent, of gra.ss and
hay less than the average. The prospect for demand may therefore be con¬
sidered good unless it be checked by relatively high prices for the article,
which would lead to a diminished ccnsumption. There is less to be said in
favor of a good export movement. The foreign trade is now in receipt of
offermgs of Danubian so freely as to warrant the idea that lower prices
here would be promptly met by concessions on the part of the men who
have that corn for sale. In other words, if we are to supply Europe with
much corn this year it wUl probably have to be on very low terms.—Chicago
Tribune.

Prices of Pig Iron.—Benner Again.

It is now about nine years since the appearance of the book iu which
Benner gives his theory of the variation of prices of leading articles of con¬
sumption. He claimed to have discovered that these prices, which are the
exponents of the changing relations of supply and demand, run in cycles,
the highest and lowest being separated by year periods which exhibit a
regularity that cannot be justly regarded as accidental. This admitted, it
is only natural to infer that these price cycles can be projected into the past
as well as the future, and this Mr. Benner essayed to do for the last quarter
of the present century. A year ago he wrote an addendum, in which he
claimed that his predictions had so far been substantiallj' fullilled. His
work forms the subject of a rather scathing criticism bj- Charles Hinrod,
who was an Alderman in this city duriug the war aud is now a dealer in
pig-h-on. The last-named fact entitles him to speak of the theory in its
application to iron, and to that he devotes his attention. Mr. Himrod con¬
cedes that Benner may be a good authority on wheat and corn, but
that his effort in regard to pig-u-on is a lamentable failm-e. The
analysis 'is of considerable interest, as Benner's book has obtained a
very wide circulation, and the author himseU a fame equal to that of
Vennor in his palmiest daj-s. So many people are ready to swear by Benner
that it is almost refreshing to find one who is rather disposed to swear at
him. Mr. Himrod shows that the figures given by Benner for the past do
not agree with the foUowing, which are drawn from the statistics of the
American Ii-oh and Steel Association:

Up,

34 niouths................to August, 1864

•20 months............to September, 187-2

15 months..............to February, 1880





Volvn.

87 montlis ..............to October, 18G1

77 months...............to January, 1871

74 mouths.............to November, 1878 |

This being the case, it is only fair to infer that the prophecy based on
false data canuot be of much value. The deduction is chiefly of interest
to the general reader because it tends to prove that there is no good war¬
rant for Benner's prediction of a decline in pig-iron that wUl not reach its
lowest point tiU 1888. If there be anything worthy of notice in the cycle
theory the flgures above given lead to the inference that the actual cycles
have undergone a constant shortening, and that the present period of depres¬
sion wUl end about a year heuce. Mr. Himrod does not give this as a
prophecy, but considers that even if it were one it would have the advant¬
age of being in harmony with the facts up to date, whUe the Benner theory
s not. We add that the shortening of the periods of activity and depression
JShibited iu the table would appear to  ba largely  due to the tremendous





progi-ess achieved in the process of iron manufacture within the last thirty
yeai-s. That period has witnessed a complete revolution in the methods of
making iron and in the uses to which it is applied. Of course such a
remark must be taken as including the manufacture of steel as weU as of
u-on, and the very extensive substitution of the former for the latter. It
is a question if the further improvements to be anticipated in these pro¬
cesses and methods wUl not result iu a radical change of the conditions of
the market. When an article is exceedingly plentiful it is too cheap to
invite speculation, even the more moderate form of it which takes the
name of '* investment," unless there be some prospect of a decrease in the
supply. In the case of farm crops there is always an uncertainty in regard
to production which tends to prevent prices from going doivu very low.
and the ability of the farmer tio choose between a variety of crops is addi¬
tional to the fluctuations in the volume of supply as dependent on tha
seasons. But in regard to the production of iron aud steel there is no such
uncertainty. The plants are in existence and the men ready to work when¬
ever called upon, whUe the material is never lacking. Looking at the
matter in this light, we shaU flnd it difficult to avoid the conclusion that
extensive fluctuations in the prices of iron are Ukely to be things of 1-^^
past, and that in the future they wiU be very smaU, it they do not wholly
disappear.—Chicago Tribune.

Current Progress.

The steady movement in Southern industries heretofore noted does n
appear to diminish perceptibly, and notwithstancUng that the times are stUl
hard in the centres of capital North and East, it appears probable that
investments wUl be made from those localities quite equaling, if not exceed¬
ing, the aggregate of outside investments in the South last year. The Balti¬
more Manufacturers' Record, in its review of new enterprises reported for
the week, tends strongly to show that there is a great deal of activity and
not a Uttle progress in nearly all of our States. A labama has a new land
and improvement company with a capital of $100,000, and which, it is said,
will have charge of the Mobile and Ohio lauds. Florida is alive with new
sugar and saw mUls. Georgia reports a new street railway in Rome, and
saw mills, planing miUs, and many small industries are being started. Ken¬
tucky appeai-s with a new flour mill, a large saw niUl, and the large distU-
lery at Owenboro, lately burned, is being rebuUt. In Louisiana, New
Orleans people are starting a company to manufacture textUe fabrics. The
capital, $37.5,0110, is reported as subscribed. Monroe is to have enlarged
shops of the Vicksburg, Shreveport and Paciflc Railway, and street cars
and improvements are mider way in many parts of the State. A new oU
and fertilizer manufactm-ing company has been organized in Mississippi, at
Aberdeen. North CaroUna comes to the front with a tobacco factory,
chemical works, saw mills and planing mUls. Tennessee is credited-with a
new coal and coke company, a tobacco factory, and many new enterprises
before reported or not yet ready. Texas is heard from through a paper
mill, a flom- mill, saw mUls, an iron foundry, and so on. Virginia has a
new steam flour null company, development plants for coal and
gold mines, a carriage factory going up, and several minor
matters. West Virginia has Bessemer steel works, now buUding at
Wheeling, with capacity of 300 tons of steel daily. A new coal mine has
been opened near Mt. Carbon. Charleston is a new foundry ahead, and the
State is generallj' doing her duty in the matter of progi-ess. It is very
pleasing to encounter these constant evidences that the section is awake
to the necessities and opportunities of the hour. The Exposition has been
avaUed of to uiterest both "home folk" and strangei-s in many industrial
chances, and the results are beginniug to be appaj-ent in all portions of the
South. As the flnancial situation of the country improves these evidences
■wiU be largely multipUed, aud especially as to the leading industries, such
as iron, coal and timber. There is good reason to expect a very marked
movement aud development in Southern timbered lands and lumber before
a great whUe, since it is known that Northern capitalists have been quietly
picking up desirable tracts for the past flve years. It seems a pity that so
few of our people have secured a share in the prospects for this " boom,"
but, be that as it may, the " boom " is coming just as soon as a restoration
of confidence shall set the lumber markets on their legs again. Much the
same is true of iron and coal, with the exception that a greater share of
those industries belongs to Southern people. There is every reason to hope
for a return of activity and prosperity to the United States this year. We
need not expect to see flush times again, nor would they be best for us. But
debts have been liquidated aud the people have come down to hard pan,
and have again learned to practice economy; living expenses are about 33
per cent, less than formerly iu many, and ought to be in all places, and
the situation is ripe for a change. The sooner the people of New Orleans
and Louisiana pluck up courage and make up theu- minds that there is
something worth working for in the near future, the more Ukelj' wUl they
be to capture a share ot the movement before the next tram of progress has
thundered by them.—Neiv Orleans Tinies-Democrat.

Tlie Business Outlooli.

That the volume of spruig trade has beeu disappointing aU wiU admit.
The total aggregate of business will differ very little from last year at this
date; the gain has simply corresponded with the natm-al growth of popula¬
tion. Dealers, wholesale and retaU, operate within as narrow hmits as
possible, and do not seem inclined to take undue risks. As the interval is
short before summer heats prevaU, it is but reasonable to suppose that busi¬
ness wUl soon settle into its usual summer duUness, to be broken only when
autumn trade begins, either in July or August. The most prominent featui-e
in trade is the extreme caution aud conservatism which governs it, the gooti
effects of which wiU be felt at a later period, aud which, independent of any
specidation, will finaUy tend to a business revival. There is a healthy
undertone to trade, notwithstanding its quietness. Distributors of staple
commodities complain that profits are small, but, on the other hand, there
are fewer losses by bad debts and from depreciated stock, because of the
greater discrhuination in crecUts and in buyuig. Careful traders, if not
making money, ai-e not losing it; they are holding theu- own, making a
living and getting a fair interest on the capital invested. So far, so good,
and there is matter for encouragement in the fact that a solid, substantial
business basis is day by day being built up. The dry goods trade is more
sensitive to weather changes than any other branch of business. As May,
so far, has been cold, the movement of dry goods has been retarded, and, in
fact, the weather almost the entire sjiring has been unfavorable for the
distribution of spriug and summer fabrics. The season is now so far
advanced that lost trade caimot be recovered, and although merchants
have bought sparingly, their stocks wiU carry them through untU autumn
with very moderate replenishing. The clothing trade has been affected
from a similar cause, but financiaUy and otherwise is in a healthier condi¬
tion than any time within the past three years. The grocery trade is a better
index of the natural growth of business resulting from au uicrease of popula¬
tion than the dry goods trade. People are compelled to buy food staples, but
can stint themselves iu clothing, eai-pets and other housekeeping goods. The
consumption of coffee and sugar has visibly iucreased over thai} of last
year, sales of coffee alone being some 38 per cent, larger than for tbe con-es-
ponduig period from January to May, 1884. The sales of fine groceries do
not show a like increase, as the people, through forced economy, have been
compelled to buy strictly staple food articles. Staple gi-oceries are sold on
very close margins, and small distributors have to work hard and economize
in every possible way, to pay promptly, aud keep up a good credit. The
wool market shows improvement, with sales in the three leading Eastern
markets of over 3,000,000 pounds last week. Prices are firmer, which is
partly due to the improved condition of the market for men's wear woolens
which is gradually getting on a healthier and more satisfactory basis. The
outlook for the manufacture of men's wear woolens is better than at any
time within the past three yeai-s, owing to manufacturers having cmtaUed