January 3, 1885





The   Record   and   Guide.





3





stocks, grain and po.ssibly potrolcuni. Cotton may go to 13 cents
tefore tlie year is over. But just at present, however, I think it is
high enough, and the cliancos are it may go lower in tlie near
future.

Mr. Bruin—You agree with me tlien in telie\'ing that the proba¬
bilities look towards lower figures for all tlie products of human
labor tefore the year closes ?

Sir O.—Yes, that seems the outlook to me, due to the " shortening
of the yard stick," that is to the augmenting value of gold as the
measure of all prices. The commercial world has agreed to degrade
silver from its rank as a money metal to measure values jointly
with gold, and the wliolo burden ftills upon the latter metal, which
iu the meantime is U'coming less in volume yearly, due to the dimin¬
ution of gold production tliroughout tlie world. So I look for a con¬
tinual shrinkage of values, tlie stojipage of new entcrjirises, the
throwing of millions of workmen out of employment, and the reduc¬
tion of the standard of comfort throughout the civilized world.
There seems to be ;i conspiracy on tlie part of the press of the world
in favor of gold mono-metallism. See how our daily newspapers
suppress all reference to the panic on the Vienna bourse, and tell
only in the most casual way of the suicides, failures and disasters
to the business of that country because of tlie forced resumption of
specie payment on a gold basis. Tlierc seems to be no help for it.
The bitter waters of extreme poverty are to te held for the present
year at least to all who do business or earn wages throughout the
commercial world. The one alleviation to our trouble is the cheap¬
ness of food and clothing, but the future is gloomy—gloomy.





The Commercial Bulletin emphasizes the anomalous condition of
the country's industry in view of the phenomenal fruitfulness of the
soil.    It says:

" It is worth while to grasp the significance of this fact—one so much at
variance with all the ordiuary conceptions of the conditions which produce
" hard times "—in the unsentimental aspect of official statistics. Take our
cereals as an illustration. The wheat jield, according to the Agricultural
Bui-eau retuius, was a hundred millions in excess of that of the haivest pre-
ceduig, making a total of five hundred and twenty million bushels, which is
considerably in excess of any previous haivest in the history of the coimti-y.
The corn crop is estimated at 1,800,0(X),(J0(J bushels, which is largely in excess
of the great jield of four years ago. Beef, i)ork and other meat products
are well up to the product of previous seasons. Petroleum is not far behind
the record even of the most prosperous yeai-s, and the same observation ap¬
plies to that other aU-mijiortant product of the soil, anthracite coal. The
catalogue might bo extended to manufactures, and to the whole range of
skilled industries, to emiihasize the auamalous spectacle."

So far the mountain laters and the mouse it brings forth is that
the whole difficulty is because of a high protective tariff. Yet the
editor must know tliat the distress in business is quite as marked in
free trade EngLand as in protected France and the United States.
The trouble is world wide and due to some other cause than the
customs duties in the several nations. He even admits, in the arti¬
cle from which we quote, that the real phenomenon is not overpro¬
duction but underconsumption. Yet it never occurs to the writer
that the difficulty may te due to the shrinkage in the currency of
the world. In other words there is not money enough to enable
consumers to get the goods they need.





desire to gamble, to make i.roflts in U'ttiiig on the price ot oil. The mem¬
bers of the Exchange should bear in mind that in dealing in oil speculatively
they are actuated by no higher moral considerations than the gambler who
risks his money on any fair game of cards. We have always advocated the
founding of exchanges for the transaction of a legitimate business m special
interests, but this .speculative feature of the exchanges is an unwholesome
sign. We cannot but believe that hterally thousands of gamblers will be
cleaned out during the coming year. This weeding out process has been
going on in the Stock Exchange for thi-ee years jjast. Grain, cotton and
especially oil operators ivill prove equally unfortunate during the coming
year,

--------•--------

Timely   Statistics.

The Railway Gazette jmblishes certain statistics that throw a world of
light upon the condition of the business of the country, which it would be
well for everyone in trade to keep m mind so as to have some guide to the
future. Fii-st, as to our population, the increase of which has been as fol¬
lows:
Year.                                      Population.

1»"9...........................    4S,6r9,(XX1

1«80...........................    80,]55,a)0

1*51...........................    61,82T,IX]0

Om- emigration is decreasing, as will be seen by the following figures for
the years ending June SOth:

ISrs).                    18S0.                  1881.                   1882                    1883

177,826                457,257               669,431                788,992               599,114

Next year will see a still greater decrease.

As our dependence m the markets of the world is based on our agricul¬
tural products, it is of the utmost importance that more land should be con¬
stantly brought into cultivation. The crop each year does not tell the
story, it is the nmnbor of acres actually under cultivation. The following
giving the acres devoted to cereals and cotton is anj-thing but satisfactory;

Graiu.

....................      77,820,000

....................    103,312,000

.....................    118.065,000





Year.





Population.
63,5t





JgJJ...........................    65,324,000

IS*!...........................    56,940,000





1884.
509,834





1873
1876
1879
1880.





.....................    120,926,000

1*11...........................    123,388,000

1882..........

1883..................

IS.'H...................





12.5,721,tXW
129,076,000
133.<MO,tX)0





Cotton.
10,800,000
11,641,000
14,388,000
16,120,000
16,851,000
16,2;6,000
16,778,000
17,449,000





Total.

88,636,000
114,953,000
133,05:i,000
137,046,000
140,239,000
141,997,000
146,451,000
151,389,000





Cotton.

76

23.7

13.1

7.2





Total.

29.7

15.8

6.7

6.6





1879.
2,6S6





1880.
2,704





When Congress resumes business next week it will be petitioned
to do something towards reviving the industries of the country by
making liberal appropriations for needed works of internal improve¬
ment, coast defences and the construction of a navy. A powerful
later organization has taken this matter in hand, and has issued a
circular from which we abstract tlie following : "The remedy lies
in the new organization. It is to embrace all classes and grades of
society. Memorials are to be drawn up and sent to Congress, and
resolutions passed in every State tliroughout the Union demanding
that Congress make liberal appro]>riatioiis for the improvement of
our coast, cities and rivers, erection of postoffices, and do such other
work which wUl not only enrich the nation, but give employment
to idle iron and steel mills and other manufactures, and tlirougli
them to the coal interests, employing thousanils of miners now
idle." If there is anything in this organization it ouglit to make
itself felt upon the legislation of the country. Our debt-paying
policy is preposterous. The surplus money in the treasury could be
used to great advatage in doing necessary work. A prudent man
of business who thinks of making improvements selects a time
when labor and material are cheap, and why should not a nation do
the same? It would not be wise for the country to undertake
improvements merely for the sake of spending its money or even
employmg labor, but when it lias work wliich ought to be done,
why should it not take advantage of this period of depression when
this necessary work can te done at t^e least cost ?





The members in the Produce Exchange have voted to tl-ade in petroleum

hereafter.   As there are already quite a number of exchaiges trading in

oil, and as there is more oil now bought and sold in a week than is produced

tn a year, it cannot be that the Produce Exchange exjiects to forward any

I legitimate interest by entering this field.    lu their case it is simply the





In different periods the percentage of increase has been:

1873tol876.....................                               %%"■

1876tol879 .....................         ...............    149

1879 to 1882.......................        ...............     60

1862 to 1884..........................'..'.'.'.'.['.'.'.'.'.'.'.'".     6.5

It wiU te noticed that from 1877 to 1879 the area in grain mcreased more
than 19 per.cent., while from 1879 to 1881, the years of greatest prosperity,
the incroa-se was only 4 per cent., and now after adding one-third to om-
railway mileage, the increase ui acreage in three years suice 1881 has been
only about 9}^ per cent. From 1879 to 1884 the increase m gram acreage
has been but ISJi jier cent., while the increase in population has been nearly
15 per cent. This slow increase of tillage with the vast increase in railway
mileage explains in a measme the trouble in the security market.

The production of gram of all kinds for six successive years, has been, In
millions of bushels:

1881.                  1882.                   1883.                  1884.

2,034                 2,688                  2,623                  2,970

In will be noticed that though the acreage increased steadily from 1879 to
1883, the production did not increase, and In 1883, with 10 per cent, more
acres than in 1879, there was 2}-^ per cent, less gram. This year, with 138^
percent, more acres than in 1879, there is 10'.; j)er cent, more graiu. This
is the first year since 1880 that grain crops have been generally good, but
there were excellent crops of all grains but com in 1882, and of spring wheat
and oats last year.

The production of grain per inhabitant has been in bushels:
1879.                  im                   1881.                  1883.                   1883.                  1884.

55.1                   53.9                   39.2                   60.1                     47.4                  Ja^.

The crops per inhabitant this year is thus 10 per cent, more than last year;
33}4 per cent, more than in 1881, but is 3 per cent, less than in 1880, and 5
per cent, less than in 1879.

The production of cotton for six successive years has been in bales:

1879.        1880.        1881.        1882                         1883      ' 1SR4

6,757,397     6,589,329     6,435,845     6,992,2*4     5,713,000     5,580:000

The  number of bales for 1884 is yet in doubt, but the number of bales of
cotton produced per thousand inhabitant was 9.,5 against 13.1 in 188-2, and
11.8 in 1879.    The exjwrts of grain and flour were as follows:
Year.                                         Bushels.

1873.........................    107,149,034





1874.........................    120,447,9-36

1876.........................    102,449,496

1876.........................    147,303,4-26

1877.........................    145,887,-204

1878.........................   234,841,745





Year.

1879...
1880...
1881...
1882.
1883.





Bushels.

270,626,597
298,436,661
2-25,851,919
163,150,(M0
173,.317,2-29





1884.........................    158,600i000

The bushels exported jier thousand inhabitants have been:
1879                   1880.                  1881.                  1S82.                  18a3.                  1884

5,i,H0                  5,9.60                  4,358                  3,040                  3,172                  2^

The falling oflf in om- exports of flour and grain tells the story of the low
jirices; the value of the total grain and flour exports was less this year than
any of the six preceding by figures varying from 27,000,000 to 1-20,000,000.
The following is the number of hogs packed for the year ending with Octo-
ter:

1881-^2.                  1882-83.                  18f3-84.

8,973,602                9,903,tMO                9,429,768

The decrease since 1880 23 per cent. The changes have been small for
three years.

The shipments of anthracite coal from the mines for the eleven months
ending with Novembtr and a!8j for the four months then ending, have been
for eight years, in tons:
Tear.               11 months.         4 months.

1877..........    J?'??!.?™            7,312,098





1879-80.
12,274,349





1878..........    16,162;525

18T9..........    24,469,939

1880..........    21,94S,560





6.654,088
10,570,-377
10.415.280





Year,

1881...
1882...
1883...
1884  .





11 months.
26,100^-63
27,085,442
29,463,065

•?ii "HIH J 1«





4 months.
11,784,.334
11,767,536
12,972,463