Real Estate Record

AND     BUILDERS'    GUIDE.





Vol. XVIII.





NEW TOEK, SATURDAY, JULY 1, 1876.





No. 433.





Published Weekly hy

THE REAL ESTAFE RECORD ASSOCIATION.

C. W. S WEET...............Pkesident and Tbeasueek

PRESTON r. SWEET...........Secbetaby.

TERMS.
OBTE YEAR, in advance___§10 00.

Coinmuuications should be addressed to

Nos. 345 AND 347 Broadway.





THE FUTURE OE NEW YORK.





The following extract fi-om a private letter ad'
di-essed to the editor of The Real Estate Rec¬
ord shows how one our of large but conservati"ve
property owners looks at the situation ;

* * * The future of New York is so much a
matter of speculation and imagination that I do
not allow my mind to dwell upon it any more
than I can help. My idea of its continued great¬
ness and supremacy is based upon this simple
fact, thai she has the start—so great a one that
no competitor on this continent can hope to
outrival her—competitive efforts will in the
future, as always in the past, merely stimu¬
late and nerve her to greater efforts. The
future of her real estate is quite another
matter, though not entirely disconnected. In
this department I claim to be a watchful ob¬
server of current events, moulding my conclu¬
sions from day to day, using all the forecast I
can command, but in no sense a seer or pro¬
phet. I disagree totally with a multitude who
think high prices the true test of our greatness
and criterion of health in our real estate market.
They have the foreboding of disaster written
plainly on their fnce. New York is just recov¬
ering from a great peril. The high prices, if
much longer continued, would have ruined her
quicker than competition. Low prices, that
now threaten to prevail, will be her salvation,
though of course involving the financial ruin of
one hundred or on e thousand speculators. They
win be gainers in the end along with the masses.





this amount greatly in 1873. We will assume
that the amount sawn last year was equal to
that of 1870 (1,388.000,000), and adding
90,000.000 for logs made into shingles, makes
the total product of the Eastern States
1,478,000,000 feet.

For what we will call the Middle and Western
States—New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania,
Ohio, Indiana, niinoie, Iowa and Missouri—pro¬
ducing pine, hemlock, spnice, and hardwoods,
we have the Government returns of lumber sawn
in 1870 as 5,156 millions, and logs made into
shingles 170 millions, making a total of 5,326
millions. From this amount we should deduct
425 millions for logs obtained in other ssctions,
and also consider a probable decrease in the
amount of lumber sawn of ten per cent., or 532
millions, which would leave the total product of
the Middle and Western States 4,369 million feet,
showing the total consumption of logs in the
Northwestern, Eastern and Middle States on my
hypothesis for the year 1875,10,799 million feet.

Of logs left over from the fall of 1875 we find
Michigan had 585 millions, Wisconsin and Min¬
nesota 327 millions, and a proportionate amount
back for the Eastern and Middle and Western
States would be, for the Eastern States 276 mil¬
lions, and for the Middle and Western States   t „„= „„r,^„..f0.1 ,-„+., i__»,„«„  i „i,-   i->„ 10-7=

nnn        ii-               I-       iiiii               ij.i3l Logs converted into lumber and shingles, 1875.

803  millions, making the total amount of old , Lumber from Canada 1875
logs on hand Jan. 1,1876, 1,991 million feet.

I will here remark that





THE STOCK OF LUMBER.





of that held in 1875, which would be 1,656 mil¬
lions; this amount, added to wholesalers' stock,
would make the entire stock of lumber on band
Jan 1, 1876, 4,296 million feet.

Should any one consider this amount nndereg-
ti'mated, let inquiry be made of retailers and
others, and it will be found that stocks run from
thirty to seventy per cent, of the amount
held last year, and in addition to this numbers
have retired from business during the year, and
many of the largest'retailers have taken up with
the idea of the boy, who, doubtful of his art,
wrote under his picture,'"This is a horse," and
now tell us in the largest possible letters, "This
is a lumber yard," where formerly the extent of
the lumber piles gave the intimation.

It being necessary, in order to show the entire
consumption, I tried to ascertain the exact im¬
ports from Canada for the calendar year 187?,
but could only get those for the fiscal year end¬
ing June 30, 1875, which we will consider cor¬
rect, and which are 465 million feet.

So that, taking the figures above given as cor¬
rect, and I believe they will be found as nearly fo
as it is possible to get them, we have the follow¬
ing results:

Million Ft.

liUmber on hand Jan. 1,1875..................   5,520

'                         10,799

465





16,784
Deduct lumber on hand Jan. 1,187G..............   4,296





To the Editor of the Real Estate Record:

Sie: According to promise, I give you below
figures to bear oiut my representations of the
scanty supply of lumber and logs on hand for
the wants of the country tiU fresh stock can be
obtained; and here allow me to. say that, apart
irom information derived from the columns of
The Eecoed, I am greatly indebted to the
Northwestern Lumberman, of Chicago, and the
iMwbermarCs Gazette, oi Bay City, Michigan, for
valuable statistics, which I shall use, without
fiirther mentioning my sourcea of information.

Taking first the essentially pine-producing
States of the Northwest—Michigan, Wisconsin,
and MimiesotiEb—we have for the season of 1875
in Michigan, lumber sawn, 2,746 millions; logs
made into shingles, 252 ndllions; and loga sent
outside the State, over 50 millions; together,
3,048 million feet. In Wisconsin and Minne¬
sota, lumber sawn, 1,379 millions; logs made
mto shingles, 150 millions; and logs sent'to
other parts, 375 millions; together, 1,904 mil-
llon feet, wliich makes the:total consumption of
logs for the year 1875 in the Northweetsm States,
4,952 million feet.                    -

The Eastern States—Miine, New Hampshire,
Vermont, Connecticut and Massachusetts—^pro¬
ducing largely spruce and hemlock, mixed with
hardwoods and pine, sawed for the year ending
June 30, 1870, 1,388,000,000 feet, and exceeded





I shall confine my
observations to the districts above mentioned,
leaving out of consideration the Southern and
Pacific States, which would only add to the
figures without materially affecting the result.

It is yet rather early to have close figures of
logs banked for this year, but I have given the
subject considerable attention, and in default of
returns from our Northwestern friends, which I
hope will be given before long, I vrill make ,
estimates which I think will be fonnd not far '
from correct, and put the Northwestern States,
at 2,900 milhons, the Eastern States at 900
millions, and the Middle States at 2,200 millions,
making the total amount of logs banked for the
spring of 1876 in districts named 6,000 million
feet.

From a carefully prepared compilation by
Mr. G. E. Stockbridge, secretary of the Lum¬
berman's Exchange of Chicago, we learn that
tha stocks of lumber on hand in the principal
mill yards and wholesale yards of the country,
from the Hudson Eiver to and including the
Mississippi, were, for Jan. 1, 1876, 1,761 million
feet, which, compared with stocks on hand the
same date in 1875, of 1,841 millions, shows a de¬
crease of 80 millioBS in specified mill yards and
wholesale yards; and since his list did not em¬
brace any tiling east of the Hudson, and omitted
most of the interior mill yards of Michigan,
Wisconsin, and Minnesota, froin which we have
recently got returns, showing about 700 million
feet not taken into consideration by him, we may
safely put the entire wholesale stock of the coun¬
try at fifty per cent, more than his figures, which
would give for what we will call the wholesale
stock on hand Jan. 1, 1876, 2,640 million feet, as
compared with stock on hand Jan. 1, 1875,
2,760 million feet.

Under ordinary circumstances retailers, box-
makers, builders, and other consumers of lum¬
ber hold stocks equal to the amount in whole •
salers' hands, so that, adding the stocks held
by retailers and ' others to those in wholesale
yards, and mill yards, we should have for the
entire stock of lumber on hand Jan. 1, 1875,
5,520 million feet.

Taking the wholesale stock for Jan. 1, 1876,         Totals, pes........     3,13U02    3,489,963  2,037,561

as 2,640 millions, we will estimate the itock in   Or over three niiUion pieces for 1873, nearly
hands of retailers and others as sixty per ceat.    three and a half millions for 1874, and only two





Total consumption, 1875.........•............12,488

Lumber on hand Jan. 1.1876..............4.296

Logs left over from 1875..................1,991

Logs banked for 1876..................... 6.000— 12.287

Excess of consumption over lumber and logs

.   onhand..................................      201

Showing that the consumption last year was
201 miUion feet in excess of lumber on hand
and all old and new logs existing this spring;
and this is the stock that must last us for fully
eighteen month?, till fresh and green lumber
wUl come in next year. And apart from the few
milhons ol feet of board lumber now on hand,
we cannot expect the sHghtest assistance from
Canada, as, before our people wake up to a
knowledge of a scarcity of lumber, British mer¬
chants will have control of all desirable stock
there, and are even now buying largely in
Michigan and Maine. While we are regaling
OTUselves with accounts of duU times abroad,
no demand for timber and aU such stuff,
we find the whole South filled with tim¬
ber ships, and as soon as St. John could
be comlortably reached it was crowded with
double the tonnage of last year; and now
we find, since the St. Lavrrence opened, that up
to June 15 Quebec has received 287,350 tons
of shipping, as compared with 155,354 tons last
year, and, what is still more to the point, that
every ton of shipping is engaged. In other
words, we find the far-seeing British merchant,
knowing the fact of a scarcity of lumber and
timber on all hands, has the foresight to hny
when and where he can do so to advantage.
Moreover, the stock of logs banked in Canada,
both last year and this year, wiU be found to be
less than one season's stock of either of the two
previous years; and, for the information of your
readers, I will give the figures obtained from the
Crown .Land Office in Quebec for the three years
preceding this one, for logs cut on Government
lands in that province:
Logs banked winter of       1872-73.     1873-74.    1874-75.

White pine,, pes......      2 243,714     2.387,863   1459 743

Spruce, pes...........        890,388     1,102,100      577,818





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