Real  Estate   Record





AND BUILDERS' GUIDE.





Vol. XXII.





NEW YOEK, SATÜEDAY, NOYEMBEE 16,1878.





No. 557.





Published WeeJrly by

TER5IS.
ONE YEAK, in advance.. ..SlO.OO.

Communications should be addressed to

C.   W.  SAVEET,

Nos. ."MS AND 3-17 BnOADWAV





CONFIDENCE AND CREDULITY.

The times are sick and saiUy out of Joint, and
nostrums innumerable are being prescribed for
their amelioration. Political partie-s, okl and new,
aro nglow with vigorous lifo, born of the convic¬
tion that each one pcssesscs the sole panacea for
national troubles. In each case, however, the
prescription involves the entrusting of eovern-
luental power to tbe particular political party
which proposes the remedy.

Of all the Solutions olYered, that is the most
empty, inadequate and commonplace, %vhich as-
serts that our present commercial and monetary
disordei-s are due entirely to a lack of confidence;
and that when confidence again revives, the cur¬
rent of aP'airs will run smoothl}-.

If we analyze the views of parties who offer
this explanation, we will generally find that they
would be more correctly represented if tbe term
credulity was substituted for that of confidence.
It is restoration of credulity not of confidence"
that they regard and rely upon as tbe harbin-
ger of better times. The strained and delusive
prosperity, for example, thafc preceded 1873, was
due to an extravagant oxcess of conüdence—iu a
word, to that false confideuce which is properly
denominated credulity.

Conüdence is founded in reason nnd knowledge,
and buikls from a firm foundation a solid, endur¬
ing and substantial structure. Credulity is
founded iu bosh and mooushine, and delights it¬
self with fautastic droams of a tinselled and va-
pory prosperity. Confideuce begau to bo awak¬
ened when reason was restored with the first peal
of the cr.ash of 1S73, aud has beeu steadily and
slowly developing and maturiug itself duriug suc-
leeding years.

In times of artificial prosperity and altitudin-
ous values, all commercial trausactions become
gaines of chance. Confideuce is not exhibited
then bi' the buj'er or seller, but by the ono who
st^iuds aloof and remains quiescent, There is a
common repugnance in human nature to being
consciously swindlod or imposed upou, and au
equally strong instinct to faucy one's seif cap¬
able of imposing upon oth ere. In the estimation
of some, the highest tide of business prosperity is
when the multitude consent to be easily deluded
and duped, and when the shrewd aud wary few
are ablo to take advautage of unfortunate inno-
cence.

Rational confidence is possible only in a stable
and orderly State of affairs, when valuos are low,
when credits are assured, and when there is no
incentive nor probability of Tiolent läucfcuations,





when credulity has no food to nourish itself upon.
But with bubbling and expanded values, witb
overtaxed and overburdened credit, with extreme
and sudden lluctuations, confidence is impossible,
credulitj' indispensable, and suspicion and tim-
idity become the marks of wisdom.

It is fora return of credulity, notof conildence,
thnt those are seeking who labor to bring about
a fresh inflation of our present overexpanded cur¬
rencj', in anticipation that such action will start
tho wheels of trade into fresh activity. They lose
sight of the fact that wo are still struggling with
the incubus of a redundant currency. Although
the gold premium marks within a fraction of par,
this condition has been brought about not by con¬
traction, but by tho threat aud expectation of
prospective contraction—as potent adepressaut a.s
actual contraction; by the favoring conditiou of
trade balauces; by fche determiued attitude of the
goverument in arbitrarily and forcibly fchwart-
iug any tendeucy to a rise iu premium, and by
the weariiiess of the people wifch au inconvertible
curroucy. Inflation has spent its force, and no
longer iuflates. Added issues of irredeemable
currency could not fail to introduce confusiou
woi-se confounded iuto our present disorders.

It is for a return of credulity, nofc of confidence,
that those are seeking who advocate the doctrine
that a dollar of irredeemable currency is as good
for the working man as a dollar of gold. A cur¬
rency created by the necessities of the war,
backed by the faith and determination of a patri¬
otic people. reinforced by government authority
in judical deerees and legislative enactments may
have an easy power of circulation; but a paper
dollar issued without necessity, without sanction
or guarantee, and in the face and defiance of all
sound doctrines of government and finance would
be fouud to have little or uo circulating power.
Supposing its circulation possible, the disturb¬
ance iu values, which would be likely to follow,
would leave the wovkingmau iu a most pitiable
and deplorable plight. His wages would uudergo
little if any substantial increase, while the cosfc
of living, including i-ent aud the uecessaries of
life, would rise out of all proportiou to auy pos¬
sible advauce iu his wages. The stoppage of in¬
dustrj-, fche intimidatiou of capital, aud the geu¬
eral confusiou would militato against the inter¬
ests of the workingmau and leavo bim without
emijloj-ment and without hojio of obtaining it.

It is for a returu of credulity and not of confi¬
dence that those are seeking, who would make us
believe that ourpreseut troubles are iuno measure
due to a pi'otective tariff aud to excessive and
burdeusome internal taxation. Those statesmeu
who are going aboufc ticklhig the ears of the rab-
ble with assurances of such unfounded aud illogi-
cal stittements had better speud their time aniong
the manufaeturers who, under the ipgis of govei-n-
mental protection, have seen their industries
multiplied so many fold over the face of the
couutry as to rentier competition impossible
because self-destructive. Thej' kuow litfcle of the
proportion that exists between the individual
taxes and income of average Citizens, who un¬
dertake to say that taxes are easily borne or
constitute bufc a trifling bürden afc the present
time. A government, whether federal, state, or
municipal, which tolerates that praetical commun¬





ism of appropriating the subsfcance of one class
and applj'ing it to the benefit of another, under
the guise of governmental taxation, may be
fairlj' construed to be on the high road to disso-
lution or revolution.

It is for a return of credulitj- and not of con¬
fidence that those are seeking who advocate the
doctrine that debt, whether governmental or in¬
dividual, is a blessing to be cheerfully borne and
lightlj' considered. The enormous loads of public
debt, which were piled up during the years of in¬
flation, are hanging like mill stones upon the neck
of industrj-, and threaten to retard almost indefi¬
nitely the returu of healthj'- activitj- and of pros¬
perous times. In the morass of personal debt,
manj- an enterprising and useful man has been
hopelesslj- submerged. Abhorrence of debt,
limitatiou of the power of contracting govern-
mental debt, are a>riong the lessons which the
collapse of inflation is still burning deeply into
the general conscience.

It is for a return of credulitj- and nofc of confi¬
dence fchafc fchose are seeking who teach and pre¬
tend fco believe thafc the time will shortly conia
when values of real estate will be restored co the
highest point that thej' ever reached, that the
maximum or par value of vacant land is far
above the plane of present valuations. Credulity,
not confidence, inspired the man who paid an
average price of fifty thousand dollars apiece for
Central Park lots and gave mortgages for nearlj'
four-fifths of the amount. Credulity, not confi¬
dence, always underlies a rapid expansion of real
estate values as it is the mainspring of every
great and determined speculative movement.

Confidence is a delicate plant thafc requires ten¬
der and faithful nursing. Confidence may be
necessary for the restoration of a healthy tone to
business affairs, but it is confidence of that solid,
inquisitive and skep.icul sort that calls for the
substance, and not tlieshadow, for demonstration
not for idle vaporing, for sound reasoning, and
not for einptj'dogiuatismand hold assertion.

The causes, wbicb led to our recent wide depar¬
ture from the path of sound commercial practice
and doctrine, bad their origin iuthe patriotic pur¬
poses of the peoiile, aided and supplemented by
govermental action, bufc never entirely controlled
bj- it. The halt given to continued inflatiou in
1874, was at the command of the unoflicial ma.sses
of fche people. The reactiouary measures and
events that have transpired since, are simplj' re-
sponsiveto general and uuinistakenble monitioius.
The restoration of prosperitj-, or of normal healthy
activitj' in affairs, will also take its origin aniong
the masses. When the road is unobstructed and
clear, no longer choked with '.the detritus of infla¬
tion, those who are free aud unhampered, di.sen-
tangled from embarrassing burdens. will be ready
to Start out upon a fresh jouruej" of commercial
eutei-prise and industrial tffort.





aiEASÜRES OF DEPRECIATION.
There is more or less confusiou prevailing in
the public mind with reference to real estate
values, and it is bj- no means easj- to regulate the
disorder and to set up absolute and reliable Stand¬
ards. It is true that real estate has declined
heavily, but it is uot true that it has declined in