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Vol. LXII.
OCTOBER 29, 1898.
1,598
SOMEWHAT to the surprise of many, cheerfulness has reigned
in Wall Street this week. There was an increase in the
professional operations and some new buying of bonds of recent
issue. The"reasons for this change of feeling are not quite clear,
in view of the prices at which the most favored securities stand,
but there have appeared announcements that reflect favorably
on the business situation. Some of the railroads in the South
and Southwest, which have surprised their friends by loss of
earnings for some time—for instance, the Missouri, Kansas &
Texas—have lately reported substantial increases, and have
thereby assisted the growth of a more cheerful feeling. As in
the case of the repentant sinner, this causes more ]oy than the
continuation of increases on roads that have not offended hy
lapses into decreases. The report of the Labor Bureau of this
State showing that the number of people employed at a recent
date was 56,000 more than was the ease at the same time las',
year, reveals a good condition of business in the State, while
the report of the Post Offlce of increased postal matter in the past
quarter, offers somewhat similar testimony to the condition of
business in the country at large. Here, also, money is easier
than it is abroad. In the nature of things, these developments
will flnd reflections in the security market. Wall Street seems
further to have made up its mind that it has nothing to fear from
the elections; that the results will not raise suspicions of the
stability of the gold standard, or interfere with a policy abroad
that it chooses to consider is necessary to the further develop¬
ment of the commerce of the country. As to the war-cloud in
Europe, that is regarded rather as favorable to this side than
otherwise. Presumably, it is thought that war would raise prices
and create an unusual demand for our produce and certain lines
of our manufactures. It is only on this supposition that the way
the market strengthened and advanced simultaneously with
London selling can be explained.
IF, as is now stated, Great Britain has determined to bring the
Egyptian question forward in a shape that will compel its
final settlement, either hy ronflrming her possession or providing
a form of government for Egypt that will be satisfactory all
round, the rest of the world will have reason to be glad. The
present anomalous condition, of an occupation which everyone
knows is only nominally temporary, gives rise to endless trouble
and ought to be ended. If this issue is now raised, it is hard to
imagine that its determination will take any other form than
the one most pleasing to Great Britain, and if France is dissatis¬
fied with this prospect, she can thank her diplomats, because
their policy of petty annoyance was so well calculated to arouse
Great Britain to take a flrm stand, and to give her the sym¬
pathy of other countries in doing so. A bold declaration of an
intention to stay permanently in Egypt would not create more
anxiety or inconvenience to the world at large than the fact of
Major Marchand's presence at Fashoda has done, or be more
provocative of war. It would only place the boot upon the other
leg. Business is more affected by the continued stringency in
money which is being felt at all the European financial centres,
with increasing force, of course, as relations with the greatest
ones are loose, than by the political situation. It is expected that,
while some relief is in sight, there will be no real ease until after
the new year. The rapid growth of commercial demands upon
capital is illustrated by a recent statement of the amount of
money invested in Great Britain in a comparatively new in¬
dustry, the electrical. This is said to have been, in 1896, roundly,
?300,000.000, and in 1898 to be $425,500,000, without taking gov¬
ernment telegraphs and telephones, on which $3,500,000 was ex¬
pended in the interval given, into the account. The results of
attempts to reform bourse business In both Paris and Berlin have
been unfortunate so far as the governmental revenues are con¬
cerned. Onerous taxes and regulations have driven large amounta
of business away from the bourses to be done over bankers'
counters, where the transactions are not taxed. The German
iron and steel manufacturers, alarmed by recent consolidations
in those trades on this side of the Atlantic and the increased
competition that they indicate, are contemplating organization
to meet it. Their intended programme is said to include a union
of the export agencies of the various syndicates and organized
efforts for the procurement abroad of orders for large quantities
of wares. As yet an advance of protective duties does not appeal
to be included in the plans.
CONVEYANCES, MORTGAGES AND MONEY.
LAST week we published our tabular summaries of the con¬
veyances, mortgages, etc., for the immediately past and
preceding quarters of this year, which were doubtless carefully
perused by our readers, and their many points of interest noted.
This week we propose to refer to some features, that we think
ought to be brought out with some distinctness, which the time
available between the completion of the tables and their pub¬
lication would not allow us to do earlier. "We have already dealt
with the distribution of the conveyances of last quarter, and at
the same time presented some reflections on the general results
shown by tbe flgures in that branch of our tables, so that little
remains to be added to that subject. In examining the flgures
relating to considerations we found recently that the average
favored the quarter of this year. A like examination shows that
was the case throughout the year. Por the nine months we have
4,803 transfers with considerations amounting to a total of $76,-
021,008, or an average of something over $15,800 to set in com¬
parison with similar figures for the corresponding three quarters
of 1897 of 5,901, $86,106,158 and a little less than $14,600 respect¬
ively. The flnal result is $1,200 per transfer more for this year
than last. For the last quarter the showing in this respect was
still better, as a reference to our flgures will prove, although the
falling off in transfers was more considerable than in the three
quarters taken together. The average per transfer of the number
reported, with considerations, was $15,578, as compared with
$12,476 in the same quarter of last year, a gain on the average
of more than $3,000 per parcel. The separate figures for the
Bronx display a large falling off in conveyances for the third
quarter, though for the nine mouths they compare favorably
with 1897. In the average reported consideration over the
larger period there is the considerable gain of $1,100, the averages
for the two years being $5,300 and $4,200. In the last of the
three quarters of the two years the averages work out at $3,800
for last year and $5,300 for this, which suggests that there was a
depression in Bronx realty in the summer months of 1897 which
was not seen in those of this year.
Probably the most interesting of the tables presented last week
was that relating to New York mortgages, especially in so far as
it indicated whether there had been any change of disposition of
the money market toward realty. The last quarter saw some
nervousness and stringency, due to the locking up of funds to
pay for the new government S's when they should be issued, and
it would not have been surprising if it appeared that realty loans
were not only harder to obtain in that period, but also if the
terms were more onerous. The amount of money loaned on
realty last quarter was very much less than it was in the same
time last year, but of the amount that was loaned a fair propor¬
tion was at the lower rates of interest. In our issue of Septem¬
ber 24th last, we treated the question of the course of realty
mortgage interest rates at some length. We showed then that
the proportions of the annual totals for the five years 1893-97,
representing mortgages made at over 5%, varied from 22.3% in
1893 to 29% in 1897, and rose to 31.3 in the first half of 1898.
Similar proportions of mortgages made at 5% ran from 51.4% in
1894 to 44.6 in 1897, and to 40.4% in the first half of this year.
Loans made at less than 5% were 18.3% of the total for 1893;
29.2% of the total for 1895 and 26.6% of the total in 1897, the per¬
centage rising to 28.3% for the flrst half of this year. In the third
quarter of this year these percentages were 37.7% over 5%;
33.3% at 5% and 29% at less than 5%. It will be seen from these
flgures that proportioned to the total amount loaned more money
is being placed on realty at the lowest rates. It must be
admitted, also, that the loans made at the highest rates are in¬
creasing in proportion, but this is probably explained by a larger
building loan business than usual and a rapid development of
the outlying sections of a more or less experimental character.
The tendency of the market toward proved realty is more truly
indicated by the loss in 5% loans, that having been the standard
rate, and the gain in loans at rates below that figure.
While on this subject it may not be without value, if briefly
we take up again the general qriestion of realty interest rates
and point out some facts that support our views that their tend¬
ency is downward. First, it may be confldently stated that that