March 21, 1903.





RECORD AND  GUIDE





537







ni.





Biftofess Alio Themes OF GETlER^lKTERfs-ti
PRICE PER YEAR IN ADVANCE, SIX DOLLARS

TubUshed eVerg Satnrday

Communications should tie addressed to
C. W. SWEET,  14-16 Vesey  Street,  New YorK

*. T. LINDSEY, Business Manager                         Telephone, Cortlandt 3157

"IMered al the. Post OMce at New York. N. T.. as second-class mailer."





Vol.  LXXI.





MARCH  21,  1903.





No.  1827





SO far as the news cf the week has a bearing upon the secur¬
ity market it is on the whole, favorable rather than other¬
wise. First in importance are the current reports of railroatl
earnings, whicli continue to reflect in increases the satisfactory
nature of tlie business of the country, regarding which the
second annual statement of the United States Steel Corpora¬
tion will furnish further testimony. If, as is claimed with much
plausibility, Lhe iron trade affords the very best indications of
general conditions, then the activity in that line and the orders
on the books of the great manufacturing concerns ought to be
highly encouraging for the immediate future. Foreign trade
reports show that the adverse difference between imports and
exports is being closed under a freer movement of corn and
cotton, and as this has a distinct beariug upon the money situa¬
tion and the question of American liabilities abroad, it is at
this time more than usually interesting and important. As to
the money market itself, thougli rates for both time and call ac¬
commodations continue high, there is not only no further fear
of a pinch this spring, but rather a feeling that relief from
present conditions is near. This is consonant with the opera¬
tions of money usual at this time of the year, when the drain
upon this centre should cease and a return movement shortly
begin. The floods in the South are regarded with some natural
anxiety, but they are not such as to have appreciable effect upon
values. As to the outlook in the stock market, that is somewhat
obscured by the fuss raised over Southern Pacific by the mana¬
ger of the pool that has long been known to exist in that stock
and whose prospects for a profitable result are dim. The pub¬
lication of the facts relating to this pool will certainly warn the
public against buying tho stock, and as matters have turned out
it is difiicult to see where the market is to be found for their
holdings. As to the merits of the question incidentially raised,
whether Southern Pacific should be placed in the dividend ranks,
those who are acquainted wil:h the property and familiar with
its affairs, and are at the same time disinterested, will agree
with the management that the ultimate good of the property
will be best served by using the profits frcm operation to in¬
crease its efficiency and facilities. Subject to the proviso that
this quarrel has no disturbing denouement, prices ought to
continue the process of gradual recovery begun this week.





■p^vULLNESS is reported from the European Exchanges this
■^^ week, and this does not encourage those who have been
expecting help from that quarter to put up prices in our own.
Still the view is held in some quarters that the inactivity re¬
marked is simply due to the demand for money, and that a
period of buying is about to supervene. Speaking of Ijondon
"The Statist" says: There are many indications outside as well
as inside the Stock Exchange that the public is tired of its in¬
activity during Lhe past ihree or four years, and is once more
preparing to invest upon a considerable scale. For the time
being the market is held in cheek by the state of the money
market, and probably until after Easter there wiil not be much
activity." The same story is told in Paris, where it is apparent
the public have abundant means and a desire to buy, but at the
same time they want good returns. Thus the Servian loan
which yields 5i/^% was taken up, and there is buyingof what may
be termed the cats and dogs of Governments, while the very
best issues in that class go begging. This confirms what we said
last week about Consols and what we have lor a long time
pointed out as the tendency of investment buying. It indicate
a revival of courage among European buyers, and a fancy for
speculative issues, which they have not possessed since the
days of Argentine development and the consequent Baring fail¬
ure. If they continue in this frame of mind United States In¬
dustrials, which pay more and are safer than some of the Gov¬
ernments so confidently bought, ought to come in Eor a share





of attention. As to the business outlook there is no cbange.
It is one of cheerfulness even if the signs of betterment do not
loom up very large. Mathematical records of prices for staple
commodities show that the movement is upward. The London
"Economist" monthly index ligure has risen steadily since last
June, and at the beginning of this month stood higher than it
has been since December, 1900. The Governor of the Bank of
France is lately quoted to the effect that in 1901 the hope of a
revival in the following year was expressed, but it was not real¬
ized in 1902 to any considerable extent. There was, however, with
the opening of this year signs of improvement. There had been a
good harvest, the prices of wines were good, imports of raw
manufactures had been large and the exports had been most
satisfactory; also there were increases in some directions of
railway traffic returns. Germany also contributes evidence of a
European industrial revival in a satisfactory report of foreign
trade for the opening of the year, and in growing demand for
industrial capital. In a revival of European security specula¬
tion the United States is bound to share.





\XT HILE awaiting the text of the Mortgage Tax bill intra-
* J^ duced into the Legislature this week, it may be taken
for granted that the descriptions of the measure sent from Al¬
bany are correct, as they agree with advance information of the
probable contents of the bill, and that it is well drafted to se¬
cure the purpose of its promoters. There is no reason why
technically the bill should not be a good piece of construction.
The people up the State have had plenty of practice by now,
this being the third attempt to impose a double tax on real
estate, during which a dozen or more bills have been introduced.
So far as the question involved in this bill is concerned it has
been pretty well threshed out. It is simply one of whether
this means should be taken to put the State upon an inde¬
pendent pecuniary basis in the face of a public opposed to a
tax on mortgages, not yet convinced that it is best for the State
that it should be made pecuniarily independent of the localities
and who, while seeing that a reform of the tax system is neces¬
sary, are anxious that when made it should be made scientifi¬
cally, and with due regard to all interests concerned. This
being the position of affairs it is hardly worth while again going
over the arguments put forward to justify the proposed new tax.
There are two, however, that are employed so constantly that
they ought to still receive attention. One is the widow and
orphan argument, and the other the alleged reduction of interest
that will follow exemption from all taxes but this one ot four
mills. The flrst is simply an absurdity, inasmuch as it
amounts to a claim that bei:ause the few mortgages owned by
estates under probate are taxed as personality, that a tax ought
to be imposed upon all mortgages. The answer to this is, if
the widows and orphans are unjustly treated provide legislative
remedies. As to the matter of interest rates, there is certainly
no guarantee that the imposition of a tax of four mills accom¬
panied by exemption from other taxation will lower interestrates;
on the contrary the conditions of the money market is such, and
is likely to remain so for a good while longer, that any tax that
has to be paid will increase the annual cost of the money bor¬
rowed, and that without diminution, because of exemption from
a tax that is not paid, as is the personal tax on mortgages at
the present time. There may be cases in which offsets will be
found, but they cannot be sufficient to negative the general
ciaim tliat the passage of this bill will increase the cost of
money borrowed upon real estate to the extent of the tax im¬
posed.





IT is very satisfactory tc> see that work has actually been
commenced to make Elm street available for traffic and of
some use to the property on either side. This it has never been
since what can only be technically called the improvement was
made, and it would be difficult to estimate the loss that Elm
street property owners have suffered in the past six years that
the roadway has been, either a storeroom for material, a dump
for refuse or an open cut for the underground railroad. As it
is the condition of work on the railroad and other circumstances
will not permit the hope that the street will be ready for its
destined use for some time to come; that is as an artery joining
the southern part of the city with the great thoroughfares
of the northern part. But as grading has been, or
is being done, where the removal of obstructions will permit it
and as when once the authorities have a clear way, work can
be rapidly pushed, the property upon the street can now be re¬
garded from the standpoint of ordinary uses and not as some¬
thing kept outside of the ordinary influences of development.
Its position therefore as marketable real estate must be corre¬
spondingly improved.