August 18, 1883
The Record and Guide'.
eoi
THE RECORD AND GUIDE.
191 Broadway, N.Y.
TERMS:
ONE TEAR, in advance, SIX DOLLARS.
Commujiicationa should be addressed to
C. W. SWEET, 191 Broadway.
J. T. LINDSET, Business Manager,
AUGUST 18, 1883.
Tbe Forestry CoDgress, which met recently at St. Paul, made
Bome Btntements and suggeatiouB which are worthy of public
attention. It declared the time had come wben tbe United States
flbould grow forests as well as destroy them. It was true that in
many places, notably Ohio, New York and Maine, the acreaga of
forests was increasing, but still only one-fourth of the coiintry ia
covered with wood, which ia a smaller area relatively than Eastern,
Western and Northern Europe. Pine lumber is disappearing, and
in a few years all our supplies of that indispensable wood must come
from the Gulf States. The United States government should
officially designate certain sections of the country which should be
devoted to the culture. Tbe head waters of all our streams and
rivers, as well as their available banka, should be reclothed with
forests, which might be thiuned but never destroyed. Forestry
laws should be adopted based on the experience of Europe, and we
then might look forward to the time when drougbtB would be
rarer than they are now and river inundations almost unknown,
From reports made by the building bureaus of the large citiep,
there is every reason to believe that more houses will be construct¬
ed during the present than any previous year in the history of the
country. Not only will there be a larger addition than ever in the
way of new structures; the ediflces will also be roomier and better
and will coat more money, and all this in spite of depressed trade
and a semi-panicky condi tion of the stock market. This phenomenon
Is due to two causes. The speculative activity of recent years has
run ita course in the stock market and the business world and is
now spending its force in the improvement of realty. Then the
rapid increase of our population from internal growth and foreign
immigration which shows itself mainly in the large cities ie creat¬
ing a constant demand for more room to house and employ the
swelling tides of our population. Mr. Lorm Blodget, in a recent
publication, declares that town and city industries have increased
tbree fold within the last twenty-five years. In other words there
are three occupations in which men aud women can make a living
by industry in all our cities, where there was one before the Civil
War, Not only ao, this labor is far more efficient, because of its
better organization, now than it was then. Women and children
are now far more extensively engaged in industrial occupations
than in former generations, and every year adds to the number of
women who from choice or necessity become bread winners. By
1890, it is estimated 1.71 persons in each family of 5,0i persona will
bt engaged in industrial occupations. This last figure is the average
number of persons in each of the 9,9i5,916 families, which were re¬
turned by the census of 1883. The proportion of workers formerly
was about one in every family, that is to say, our industrial army
in times past waa equivalent to about lff,000,000 measured by the
census of 1880, yet tbe number of workers were given as 17,392,099
In that enumeration. We live in an age of extraordinary industrial
development; hence the growth of our large cities and their sub¬
urbs. There can he no step backward in building operations.
Crops may fail, business become depressed and panics may rage in
Wall street, but new ediflces for work and living will be constantly
needed, while old structures will call for repair and enlargement.
The parcel post is now in operation in Great Britain. After
absorbing the telegraph tbe liberal government proposes to dispense
with the private express companies. This idea has been borrowed
from Germany, whera a parcel post has been in eucceasful opera¬
tion for many years. No doubt it will be also imitated in the
United States. Great Britain has got the start of us in this as in
the nationalizing of the telegraph, the money order system, the
postal banks and the postal note. When the parcel poat system is
nationalized among us, it will effect important changes in the
transaction of business: the great city emporiums will have a great
advantage over local dealers. Tbe centers of population will thrive
at the expense of the minor commuuitiea. The points at which
goods can be produced cheapest will have the advantage of tbe
vast machinery of the government to distribute their wares to the
consumer. Thus the work of centralizing capital and power goes
on the world over. It is a curious fact that ic is men like Professor
Fawcett, a leader of the laiiisez faire school in Great Britain, a
disbeliever in government, who baa been forced by circumatancea
to put in operation so much national machinery to take the place
of private enterprise. Both parties in thia country swarm with
political idiota, who cannot see that in certain things centralized
government is inevitable.
Ttie Cause of tlie Trouble.
There is a rythmic motion in all human affairs, including buai¬
nesa, as there ia in music. The tide of speculation rose through
the period of inflation up to 1870, fell in the cycle which closed in
1877, took an upward turn again until the summer of 1881, since
which time the tide has been again running out. The condition
of affairs during the paat week iu Walt street justifies the expecta¬
tion that the lowest point for the present haa at length been
reached,
We may now expect feverish reactions, but it is not likely that
the market will recover ita tone immediately. The losses have
been eo recent and so heavy that none but the bold aud fortunate
will have the courage to re-enter the field as bulla, A few leaders
cannot make a market. It requires a large body of subsidiary
operators to do so, and the conditions do not exist for any consid-
able number of capitalists venturing upon new speculations in the
street,
Of course, the newspaper theoriata have come to the front to
account for the recent disturbances. It was Jay Gould, says one
authority, who wished to break down Villard and capture the
Northern Paciflc, but every interest of that noted operator is clear¬
ly on the side of a buoyant market and higher prices. Left to hia
iuBtincts, he might be a bear, but his enormous holdings of telegraph
and railway stocks are a guarantee that be cannot afford to aell the
market for anything more than a turn. A Tribune editorial writer
puts forth a curiously absurd theory to account for the disturbance.
Thia is, that there is too much honest money in the country. He
says:
On the day of specie resumption we had in the country about f 1,005,000,-
000 of money of varioua kinds, includinK *3a.5,OOO,O0O of coin and $670,0oO„
OUO of legal tenders and bank notes. In eight months the increase waa
* 110,000,00(1; in two jearg t31'',000,000; in three years tlOO.OOO.OOl); in four
years over ?433,000,000. Tbe amount nt United States bank notes did not
greatly cliange, but there were added to the circulation about $6^,000,000
of gold certiflcatea, 873,600,000 of silver certiScatss, and $35,300,0U0 of
silver dollars, besides a very large amount o( gold coin. Of the certifi¬
cates, too, t6El,500.000 ot the silver and S27,0U0,0u0ot the gold had gone mto
active circulation July 1st, aud were not in the Treasury nor in the banks,
besiJes $38,000,000 iu silver dollars.
In this view two very separate facta are confounded. Au infla¬
tion of irredeemable paper is an unmixed evil, but all additions to
the precious metal wealth of the nation ia an unmixed good. A capi-
taliat may ba insecure whose wealth consiated of notes represent¬
ing doubtful enterprises, but the ownership of gold and silver or
certificates and notea convertible into the precioua metals ensures
solvency beyond all peradventure. In the whole history of the
world, the nation with the largest precioua metals reserve has been
regarded as being in the hest possible position. If the Tribune
writer is correct, France must be in a moat periloua condition, for
the gold and silver in that couutry amounts to about $54.54 per
capita, while our whole currency, including greenbacks aud bank¬
notes, is about $26 per cupifa. Leaving out the paper representa¬
tives of gold and silver, we have not one-quarter the precious
metal reserve of the French pesple, although our population is
nearly 20,000,000 greater.
The primary cause of our troubles haa heen railroad building
through regions which can yield UO immediate return. It is thia cause
whichproducedRomany financial crises in densely populated Eng¬
land and Scotland. With two or three noted exceptions, such as Rock
Island and Lake Shore, all the great lines weat of the Alleghanies
have repeatedly been on the verge of bankruptcy or in the hands
of receivers. It waa the failure of the Northern Pacific which
commenced the panic of 1873. It is safe to predict that every
transcontinental line will again go into the hands of receivers, lb
iathe acme of absurdity to expect that roads which run through
deserts can be profitable, when the New York Central, whose
route from New York to Buffalo is studded with great cities, finda
it difficult to pay its dividends.
Tlie bear attacks of the past week were naturally directed
against the "wilderness" roads, which are aod will continue to
be the assailable securities in the market. The country is in a
fairly good condition. It has au abundance of animal and veget¬
able food, and its transportation lines will continue to do a profit¬
able business. One of the most cheering indications of the times
ig the activity in builling operations in all the large cities, espec¬
ially in the Western centres. While the unnatural land specula¬
tion bas come to an end in the Northwest, realty holds its own
everywhere, for the constant additions to our population are certain
to make land more valuable as time passes by.